So, are real estate prices going up or going down in OR? (Salem: mortgage)

[CalculusE.]

Yeah I've heard its bad in southern oregon or at least correcting itself. I sure wasn't interested in moving back 4-5 years ago after college and I'm not now. Medford prices just went insane IMHO the last few years.

[iammarby]

Eastern home sell prices are on the rise... near Idaho, at least in the area of Ontario, Oregon... pricing is great for now for the buyer in comparrison of prices throughout the rest of the State but then again... it is a matter of what you want & are willing to pay.

Originally Posted by iammarby

In the Eastern part of Oregon.... I have noted an increase in existing home pricing...an example would be ...( in 1 case) a home built in the 1950's, 2 years ago sold for $60,000.00 (in 1 small city) & today that same home would sell at about $90,000.00 to $100,000.00 So It may vary sharply from location to location.

[MarcellaTheAuthor]

Originally Posted by heavens54

In the rest of the country they are going down, right? What about Oregon, are they reflecting this trend? Thanks.

I am looking for a country home near town in a clean and safe area. I want to buy a retirement home with a few acres near some water before the prices go up. Can you recommend an area?

[DavePautsch]

Marcella
Check out Linn County: Scio, Crabtree, Albany, Brownsville
Also: Monmouth, Dallas, Independence

I don't think you have to worry too much about prices going UP in the near term, however I think that while they are currenty flat, you may be able to get a good deal with some research and patience.

In our market (mid-Willamette Valley), inventory is rising (marginally), but overall sales are slow because people are not jumping INTO the market. The sellers who have a NEED to sell are getting more and more motivated, although this is NOT a wholesale "buyer's market" in the traditional sense, but you can find individual cases where a qualified buyer has leverage.

What you are looking for is out there, it just depends on your budget and what your needs/desires are in the house itself and how much acreage. You can find 5 acres in this area anywhere from 280 to 600K plus.

Good luck.

Dave

[jadgeb]

Originally Posted by iammarby

In the Eastern part of Oregon.... I have noted an increase in existing home pricing...an example would be ...( in 1 case) a home built in the 1950's, 2 years ago sold for $60,000.00 (in 1 small city) & today that same home would sell at about $90,000.00 to $100,000.00 So It may vary sharply from location to location.

Although realtors are trying to "disguise" it, the real estate market in parts of the state have gone bust. I can speak from local experience in Central Oregon. In last week's Bend Bulletin, a little RE flyer came out that headlined, RENT TO OWN! I have never seen that before, in all the years I have lived in this area (30 years). Someone must be getting desperate to unload over a year's worth of housing inventory. Many people studied to become RE agents about a year too late to get in on the boom. I suspect that many agents will be looking for other jobs now or not too far down the road as nothing is selling, to speak of.

Where I live, no one is building anything, either, although they were all hot-to-trot with a big buildup and write-up in the media for subdivisions, etc. The graded-off land is full of weeds and rabbitbrush now, with sidewalks and services to nowhere. I wonder how many of these developers will lose their shirts? Actually my husband and I could see the handwriting on the subdivisions [walls] coming 2 years ago. The prices are not sustainable. There are many wealthy baby boomers and soon to be retirees, thousands of low and middle income workers, a finite amount of buildable land, but the prices are absolutely obscene. Dumpy little packrat-infested houses that sold for less than $10,000 at one time are being razed for the lot priced $100,000+, underneath the house. Working Joe and Jane "cozy" (tiny) mill houses in Bend are [over]-priced at $300,000+. That's sick! There are no working-person wage industries to support those kind of prices in Central Oregon unless you bought here years ago when the prices were reasonable, are an administrator, superintendant, upper management, etc., or bring your money and the "Central Oregon lifestyle" with you from elsewhere. Very few people can afford that "lifestyle". [In fact, if I hear that one more time on the radio or TV I will scream!] The REAL Central Oregon lifestyle is living paycheck to paycheck, trying to make ends meet, hoping you won't be taxed out of your home, lose your job, your spouse won't get laid off from work (i.e., the HUGE layoffs and shuttered businesses this year at Seaswirl, Bright Wood, Columbia Air, etc.), and hoping the car won't break down because of all the distances you have to drive here. Many people are truly stuck here. They can't afford to stay and can't afford to leave. Many people work 2 and 3 jobs or more. The lucky few can live pretty high on the hog.

The RE market just exacerbated a huge existing problem in Central Oregon, where the wages for a single person do not even come close to an affordable living wage. Housing costs have gone up, groceries have gone up, taxpayer-based services costs have gone up, utilities, health insurance, medical costs, etc., but not wages, except for those who have a union contract (government: school, state, city, county workers). In terms of wages, mine have not increased all that much in 30 years, but I could sure as hell live a lot better at one time. I know this is happening all over the U.S., but eventually it will all come to a halt, people will just say enough! and flake out or go bankrupt. The goose that laid the golden egg will be "killed".

The RE prices are going to have to adjust to a more sensible level, employers are going to have to value their employees more (fat chance), quit taking away health insurance, and increase their wages to reflect cost of living. We can't ALL be on the government dole and/or taxpayer-based health plans, or this state will implode.

[iammarby]

Correct; it is bad everywhere...
However...in some areas there is actually increased housing being built, yes, at inflated rates. In The Ontario area there are new buisnesses going to the area creating new job opportunities desperately needed in the lower income rual area.

[ladysrodgers]

Originally Posted by MarcellaTheAuthor

I am looking for a country home near town in a clean and safe area. I want to buy a retirement home with a few acres near some water before the prices go up. Can you recommend an area?

Prices have already gone up. I sold 5.5 acres in the Applegate Valley (in the country between Grants Pass and Medford), that was on the Applegate River earlier this year. My RE agent said sales (except for very unique properties) have dwindled down to nothing.

[Larry Caldwell]

Originally Posted by ladysrodgers

Prices have already gone up. I sold 5.5 acres in the Applegate Valley (in the country between Grants Pass and Medford), that was on the Applegate River earlier this year. My RE agent said sales (except for very unique properties) have dwindled down to nothing.

I see in the Daily Courier that a real estate agent is coming to the food bank for food packages. Real estate prices depend on how desperate the seller is. Make an offer.

In Roseburg last week, a crappy old house in an older neighborhood went up for foreclosure auction, and there were no bidders. The house wasn't much, but it was on a riverfront lot. I wish I had known about the sale.

Keep an eye out for distressed properties, and you can make a killing in the long run. It's a buyer's market.

[DavePautsch]

What makes a good or bad real estate market anyway?
1) 90% of real estate is local! Despite the moans and groans on the national news, there is NO national housing market. Statistically, we in the Pacific NW tend to get lumped in with California as "the West" when they report the numbers. This causes a great deal of confusion by so many consumers, and other real estate people too.
2) Look at your local economy: what is the rate of unemployment? the median income? are people relocating TO or OUT OF your area? what are the median housing prices for the different neighborhoods?
3) What is the local inventory? In real estate we use the term "absorption rate" but it is essentially a calculation of the existing months of inventory. It assumes that, given the rate of sales over a past period of time (say 90 days as an example) and if NO NEW homes were to come on the market, then theoretically how long would it take to sell everything currently listed. You can break this down by price range, by type of home, or other characteristic if you want to. Rule of thumb: 6 months of inventory or greater is the tipping point to a buyer's market.
4) National factors play a role: Mortgage interest rates, ripple effects from other deteriorating markets ("where is my California buyer now??"), sub-prime mess, credit tightening, etc...

The problem is that we are so busy painting this issue with broad strokes that the EMOTION has become more important than the facts for too many people. For example, in the mid-valley, every indicator above (1 thru 3) is pretty solid...but (4) has shaped peoples opinion and lots of buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy...causing inventories to rise...and prices to flatten.

But, it is STILL a good market for someone! If you are looking to buy a HOME there are lots out there to choose from, and sellers who might negotiate so that you can get a good deal. If you are looking for a HOUSE (an investment), then Larry has the right idea...look for short sales and distressed properties with desperate sellers. BUT, don't plan on making any money off it in short run. This is NOT necessarily a market for "flippers."

I apologize for the length of this post...but this is something very important for me to help people understand...because if they don't understand it, it will cost them money!

Dave

[little peg]

My personal home selling experience was that there is a correction at this time, lot less people buying to resell so you should get alot of different properties to look at just do not expect the leaping increases of the past.