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Old 01-01-2012, 10:12 PM
 
1,027 posts, read 601,207 times
Reputation: 551
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cinnamon_Girl View Post
Debatable, but the point is Oregon doesn't stand alone in its economic woes and to reiterate, is not necessarily worse off every other state in the union. Perhaps, instead of depicting Oregon as an economic wasteland devoid of job opportunities for anyone who deigns have less than 15 college degrees, it would be more helpful to suggest the prospective residents compare the actual economic indicators of their current state of residence to Oregon. This would give them a much more accurate picture of what to expect than Jennifer67044's Chicken Little pitch.

I don't know how you interpret "making a living" but I'd expect it doesn't, in this case, include relying on a food pantry and/or government assistance to make ends meet. Freelance work that results in an income is employment. I won't argue, though, that with 15 degrees she may very well be underemployed. Whether that's by choice or by circumstance isn't clear.


Booming? Where did you read that? I don't see how I overstated Oregon's current or future economic climate. I've been doing a lot of reading since I'm planning a relocation in the coming year. I don't think anyone should undertake an enormous change such as moving across the country without doing their due diligence. I would strongly encourage krystea to look beyond the surfing potential of Oregon and more at the economic potential. She may very well find they need to reassess their options or learn to live with less.
Look, you haven't even been to Oregon, neither you gotten a job locally--in real life, things often look very different from what's on paper or in various internet sources, so I recommend visiting before drawing conclusions from online sources. I think one of the Portland residents here estimated actual white male unemployment/underemployment rate as 30%.

The article that you re-posed is a quote from something published in... 1998. The comments under that article link that you quoted pretty much sum it all up, and there's no need to respond separately--they said it well in the comments.

The current and future situation is this:
Where will China find the oil to power its economy? - The Globe and Mail

I hope your suggestion that freelancing is actually employment to that guy will make his life easier and brightens it up for him; poor guy probably needs the 16th degree to start "getting it" like some do.
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Old 01-01-2012, 10:18 PM
 
Location: Medford, OR
77 posts, read 58,244 times
Reputation: 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by alexxiz View Post
When China has to devalue dollar to buy the oil which US is buying now and US can't buy it anymore, this will become more obvious. The US system is an air bubble one step short of default now, as manufacturing had moved out and debt is out of control. Too bad there're no mineral resources to patch it up.
You'll get no argument from me that the U.S. is far too dependent on oil. -- though, I'd be curious as to which states are most dependent on oil (guessing Oregon is well into the lower half). You haven't yet explained what that has to do with a service-based economy.

As to debt, take your pick: deregulation of the banking industry, crushing medical costs higher than any other developed nation and rising rapidly, education costs spiraling faster than the wages, etc. That's the bubble: buy now, pay later, get it bigger and cheaper. If Americans want manufacturing jobs back in the U.S., they're going to have to get used to paying much more for products than their Wal-Mart fed notions will allow. Not that this has jack all to do with whether Oregon is going to be a healthier economy than New Jersey in the near future. But let's not let a good political debate go to waste.
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Old 01-01-2012, 10:29 PM
 
1,027 posts, read 601,207 times
Reputation: 551
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cinnamon_Girl View Post
You'll get no argument from me that the U.S. is far too dependent on oil. -- though, I'd be curious as to which states are most dependent on oil (guessing Oregon is well into the lower half). You haven't yet explained what that has to do with a service-based economy.

As to debt, take your pick: deregulation of the banking industry, crushing medical costs higher than any other developed nation and rising rapidly, education costs spiraling faster than the wages, etc. That's the bubble: buy now, pay later, get it bigger and cheaper. If Americans want manufacturing jobs back in the U.S., they're going to have to get used to paying much more for products than their Wal-Mart fed notions will allow. Not that this has jack all to do with whether Oregon is going to be a healthier economy than New Jersey in the near future. But let's not let a good political debate go to waste.
They can't bring manufacturing jobs back without severe change in "quality of life", this train is gone--I'd say they just can't bring them back in any event without what people would perceive as catastrophic change in lifestyle. The "service economy" is nothing but a big air bubble that is not producing goods or resources and is not viable in the global markets. It's not a matter of which state is more or less dependent on oil--it's the entire system that is up in the air now and close to the edge, as Chinese demand is growing fast--this is a global problem, doesn't matter which state, as soon as US territorial integrity remains.
They like to post articles with favorable economic and real estate forecasts, as this is what keeps population pacified.
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Old 01-01-2012, 10:34 PM
 
Location: Cleveland Heights OH
13,324 posts, read 9,652,579 times
Reputation: 12604
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cinnamon_Girl View Post
Never been to Oregon, yet I've never heard it pronounced this way in California, Hawaii, Ohio, or North Carolina. Must be a regional thing. Wait... no, that can't be it.


You forgot agriculture and tourism/recreation as examples of a large part of Oregon's growing economy. According to the State of Oregon, manufacturing, which includes forestry, accounts for only 18% of the total economy, while service industries account for 82%. And:

According to bluebook:
Now, it's true that the housing bust decimated the construction industry that had been growing at a clip in Oregon prior to 2007. But the economy is rebounding and with it, construction spending will rise again. It may not happen overnight, though. But I don't see why Oregon should be that much worse than New Jersey. In fact, it isn't:
New Jersey Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees: Construction (Unadjusted) Chart and Data - YCharts
Oregon Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees: Construction (Unadjusted) Chart and Data - YCharts

People seem to keep forgetting that we've just had a national recession. Your immediate surroundings may look pretty dismal, but it's not like everything's hunky dory outside your community. It's bad all over...and worse in some places. Some people may actually benefit from heading to a state that is rebounding better than the one they're currently in.

Making a living from freelance technical writing? You've got an interesting definition of 'unemployed' there.

Can you back this up with a cite, or is this just more fear-mongering on your part?
Never been to Oregon yet you appear to be representing yourself as knowledgeable about its economy? Why are you even responding about a state in which you do not live or to which you have never even been?

I suggest you find yourself one of these "available" jobs you believe exist and move here. You cannot give accurate information about a place by spewing statistics from thousands of miles away. Come here, get a job and then talk about Oregon's economy. If you believe what you are reading about it is true, you should have no problems finding work.

Statistics do not tell the whole picture. For example they don't tell you how many of the already unemployed are competing for few jobs that do exist here. They do not show the many layoffs and business closures happening everyday.You can quote your statistics 'til the cows come home and it won't make a bit of difference as to how things really are.

They also do not mention the many people who have moved here without jobs adding to the already numbers of unemployed. I don't believe that people are moving to New Jersey as they are to Oregon creating this type of competition.

Yes, there are jobs to be had in Oregon. They are usually in the more high tech or medical fields where qualified people are always in demand. But people in retail, or general office work or construction are already plentiful and there is not a great call for them. Getting one of those jobs would mean having to be in the right place at the right time. And knowing someone with an "in" is a huge help.

By the way, what is your field?

Oh, and by the way, if you ever did come here you would hear tourists mispronouncing the name of the state as Ore-E-Gone. Happens all the time.

Last edited by Minervah; 01-01-2012 at 10:42 PM..
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Old 01-01-2012, 10:40 PM
 
1,027 posts, read 601,207 times
Reputation: 551
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minervah View Post
Yes, there are jobs to be had in Oregon. They are usually in the more high tech or medical fields where qualified people are always in demand..
Even high tech field is extremely competitive in Portland. There're only few engineering jobs.

As to Jersey... proximity to the City can be a saving factor, in some way. The place like the City tends to be more resistant in the decline conditions, as there's a lot of money in the City and some of it gets spilled around.
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Old 01-01-2012, 10:56 PM
 
Location: Cleveland Heights OH
13,324 posts, read 9,652,579 times
Reputation: 12604
Quote:
Originally Posted by alexxis View Post
Even high tech field is extremely competitive in Portland. There Are only few engineering jobs.

As to Jersey... proximity to the City can be a saving factor, in some way. The place like the City tends to be more resistant in the decline conditions, as there's a lot of money in the City and some of it gets spilled around.
That is very true for the most part but there have been some posters on this forum who have said they cannot find qualified people for the very specialized high tech jobs in which they have openings at their companies.
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Old 01-01-2012, 10:59 PM
 
1,027 posts, read 601,207 times
Reputation: 551
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minervah View Post
That is very true for the most part but there have been some posters on this forum who have said they cannot find qualified people for the very specialized high tech jobs in which they have openings at their companies.
They always say this now the companies post ridiculously inflated requirements that literally demand 3 different people merged into one to fill one position, with one salary--then, they complain they can't find anyone. This is happening in Bay area as well. They end up hiring H-1 for small pay--of course, because they couldn't find any qualified US candidates. You get H-1 engineers living in small rental rooms forever, and not burdened by US student loans, what's not to love. Plus, there're offshore teams that sometimes can literally work for $300/month per person... So, they can afford to say that they only want highly specialized engineers with many years of experience here and for substandard pay--"hard to fulfill" of course.

Last edited by alexxiz; 01-01-2012 at 11:14 PM..
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Old 01-01-2012, 11:01 PM
 
Location: Medford, OR
77 posts, read 58,244 times
Reputation: 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by alexxiz View Post
Look, you haven't even been to Oregon, neither you gotten a job locally--in real life, things often look very different from what's on paper or in various internet sources, so I recommend visiting before drawing conclusions from online sources. I think one of the Portland residents here estimated actual white male unemployment/underemployment rate as 30%.
Right. Don't listen to me because I don't have anecdotal data to share.
Are you really suggesting we place more stock in what some random guy from Portland claims than in what every reputable source is reporting based on metrics tabulated by the state entity that tracks unemployment?
Here's the decidedly subdued economic forecast for 2012 produced by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis.
http://www.oea.das.state.or.us/DAS/O.../executive.pdf (PDF)

You'll note that employment is expected to rise by 1.5 percent. That's anemic, but the U.S. growth is only projected to be rise by 1.7 percent.

Quote:
The article that you re-posed is a quote from something published in... 1998. The comments under that article link that you quoted pretty much sum it all up, and there's no need to respond separately--they said it well in the comments.
Irrelevant. As pointed out in the article, the U.S. has been moving towards a service-based economy since the end of WWII. Old news, my friend. You don't reverse 60+ years of economic policy overnight. Especially when that's not what's causing our current crisis.

Quote:
The current and future situation is this:
Where will China find the oil to power its economy? - The Globe and Mail
Nice OpEd. Still does not apply to the discussion of why or how the U.S. became a service-based economy. Or how it can or should return to a manufacturing economy. But yeah, the U.S. needs to stop relying so heavily on oil, put a bit more effort into developing alternative energies and green innovations, and roll back tax breaks and corporate welfare. I'm all on board with that. Until then, China has the potential to economically steamroll this country.

Quote:
I hope your suggestion that freelancing is actually employment to that guy will make his life easier and brightens it up for him; poor guy probably needs the 16th degree to start "getting it" like some do.
I dunno, I just thought it amusing to point out the dire employment outlook by claiming to be unemployable with 15 degrees while earning a living as a technical writer. Neither was it lost on me that the poster was distressed about the inability to put his/her doctorate in nuclear physics to use in a state that has no nuclear plants and relies primarily on its hydropower resources to the tune of 80% of its energy production.

I'm guessing this hijack is growing old for the OP and others, so I'm about done with this line of argument.
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Old 01-01-2012, 11:07 PM
 
1,027 posts, read 601,207 times
Reputation: 551
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cinnamon_Girl View Post
Right. Don't listen to me because I don't have anecdotal data to share.
Are you really suggesting we place more stock in what some random guy from Portland claims than in what every reputable source is reporting based on metrics tabulated by the state entity that tracks unemployment?
Here's the decidedly subdued economic forecast for 2012 produced by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis.
http://www.oea.das.state.or.us/DAS/O.../executive.pdf (PDF)

You'll note that employment is expected to rise by 1.5 percent. That's anemic, but the U.S. growth is only projected to be rise by 1.7 percent.

Irrelevant. As pointed out in the article, the U.S. has been moving towards a service-based economy since the end of WWII. Old news, my friend. You don't reverse 60+ years of economic policy overnight. Especially when that's not what's causing our current crisis.

Nice OpEd. Still does not apply to the discussion of why or how the U.S. became a service-based economy. Or how it can or should return to a manufacturing economy. But yeah, the U.S. needs to stop relying so heavily on oil, put a bit more effort into developing alternative energies and green innovations, and roll back tax breaks and corporate welfare. I'm all on board with that. Until then, China has the potential to economically steamroll this country.


I dunno, I just thought it amusing to point out the dire employment outlook by claiming to be unemployable with 15 degrees while earning a living as a technical writer. Neither was it lost on me that the poster was distressed about the inability to put his/her doctorate in nuclear physics to use in a state that has no nuclear plants and relies primarily on its hydropower resources to the tune of 80% of its energy production.

I'm guessing this hijack is growing old for the OP and others, so I'm about done with this line of argument.
It is easier sometimes to chose not to see the reality when it doesn't match the expectations, that's all I have to say here.
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Old 01-01-2012, 11:13 PM
 
Location: Cleveland Heights OH
13,324 posts, read 9,652,579 times
Reputation: 12604
Quote:
Originally Posted by alexxis View Post
They always say this now the companies post ridiculously inflated requirements that literally demand 3 different people merged into one to fill one position, with one salary--then, they complain they can't find anyone. This is happening in Bay area as well. They end up hiring H-1 for small pay--of course, because they couldn't find any qualified US candidates.
Interesting point. I didn't have any advanced degrees or special knowledge in my last employment. But I had tons of responsibility and had to be well versed in a lot of different areas. All the while more and more tasks were piled on. I was actually doing the work of four people when I left. Talk about burnout!

I learned that after I left, they hired three people to replace me because there was no one who knew how to do all the different tasks I performed. And it was too much to teach just one person. They were paid way less than I had been earning.

That was about a year ago. Now they have redistributed the work to other departments and let the three who replaced me go. This was a typical act of this company. I saw entire departments hire people and six months later regroup and lay those people off.

It's kind of scary because even if one is lucky enough to get a job, there is no guarantee they will be able to hang onto it for any length of time.

I suppose that can be true of any place which is why it is good to be prepared and have something to live on even if one is able to obtain employment.
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