Economy in Bend? (Redmond, Warm Springs: short sale, rental homes, crime rates)

[NativeJodi]

Originally Posted by ldm883

I live in the Bend area and am in real estate. The market is just starting to settle in... prices are starting to come down, and it's really a great time to buy cause you can make just about ANY offers....I know some new home outfits that are even paying all closing costs.

Don't fret about the winters. The sun shines around 265 days a year, so even tho it gets cold, it's not that bad. I've lived where there's freezing rain and 3-6 feet of snow! Bend gets maybe a couple inches most years. I think it would be a great place for your line of work, and also central Oregon is one of the best places to raise a family. Bend has the lowest unemployment in the state. 2-3%'s below the national average.

Yup, spoken like a real estate agent, willing to say absolutely anything to bring in more business.

Here's a thought: You real estate agents who aren't making enough money here in Bend; why don't you move somewhere else? Another state, perhaps? But don't tell lies just to drum up more business for yourselves. That's pretty pathetic.

[Skytripper]

Originally Posted by NativeJodi

I'd say it's that or a bit higher... but also be aware that this price will NOT buy you a 4 bedroom, 2000 sq. ft. home. Think more along the lines of a 3 bedroom with maybe 1500 sq. ft. And no yard or privacy.

A 4 bedroom with 2000 sq. ft. (but again, no real yard or privacy) will run you around $650k.

STILL far TOO high a price for a house like this!
ANYONE STUPID enough to pay 650K for the above...deserves to lose $$$.
The housing market is tanking ALL over the country, has been and WILL continue to do so for quite a while.
A 4 BD/ 2000q. ft. house....IN Bend, OR, with no land, just an avg. size lot.....SHOULD cost no more than $225-275K......IMO. And until the housing market finally bottoms out where it should and this IS a reality.......they are still way overpriced and can SIT on the market forever or into foreclosure as far as I'm concerned!
Houses ARE already WAY below this price range in a similar climate and desirable location in Colorado, halfway between Colo. Sprgs. and Denver.
A 5,502 sq. ft./ 5 BD/6 BA house on one acre in Larkspur, CO (Perry Park)......is on the market for $750,000 right now and IT still sits on the market!
Saw this on CL.
In comparison.....according to the above quote on that much smaller house in Bend@ $650K would likely put the other house in Colorado closer to $1.75 million.....in Bend "dollars".....which, last I knew....IS part of America or in their "own" world?
So......Bend RE Agents, hope you enjoyed the heyday of the boom and were smart enough to save some for YOUR rainy day.....it's here!!! 2008, '09 and beyond?

[wohelo]

Look before you leap...

Friday, January 25, 2008
Bend Unemployment Jumps 36%

From the Bend Bulletin:

In the past two years, Bend resident Kris Kuchta has purchased a new home, celebrated the birth of his baby boy and lost his job.
After holding various jobs since moving to Bend from Greenfield, Calif., in 2000, the former laborer watched his carpet-restoration business struggle when onstruction of new homes slowed. To make matters worse, he aggravated an old neck injury last fall that forced him to quit his job. Since then, he’s been struggling to get healthy so he can return to work and stop relying on his wife’s income at St. Charles Bend and financial aid from family members.
Kuchta is one of the more than 5,000 unemployed Central Oregonians the Oregon Employment Department counted in December. December’s unemployment rate for Deschutes, Crook and Jefferson counties was 6.4 percent, according to the report, up from 4.7 percent last December, an increase of 1,800 unemployed people.
As Central Oregon’s economy adjusts to a slumped housing market, many workers have lost their jobs and are facing the daunting task of re-employment.
“Unemployment has increased due to the decrease in seasonal employment and the downturn in construction, which has also affected the financial industry,” said Patti Cook, WorkSource Oregon Employment Department business services supervisor in Redmond. “Many of these job-seekers are higher-skilled workers or those with great transferable skills and longevity in the workplace.”
Ann Delach, adult programs manager for Central Oregon Intergovernmental Council said the employment market’s supply-and-demand balance has reversed.
“A year ago, employers were calling us daily asking us to send anybody we can find,” she said. “Now, we’re seeing (job-seekers) who are looking for almost anything.”

[angelbug]

Originally Posted by wohelo

Friday, January 25, 2008
Bend Unemployment Jumps 36%

From the Bend Bulletin:

As Central Oregon’s economy adjusts to a slumped housing market, many workers have lost their jobs and are facing the daunting task of re-employment.
“Unemployment has increased due to the decrease in seasonal employment and the downturn in construction, which has also affected the financial industry,” said Patti Cook, WorkSource Oregon Employment Department business services supervisor in Redmond. “Many of these job-seekers are higher-skilled workers or those with great transferable skills and longevity in the workplace.”
Ann Delach, adult programs manager for Central Oregon Intergovernmental Council said the employment market’s supply-and-demand balance has reversed.

Funny how when people stop moving somewhere, an overheated economy stalls, huh? Now I suppose they'll be blaming Californians for NOT moving there.

[cybersmom]

Actually, Bend is a very beautiful place. During the months of Jan-Feb (thus far), we received a few feet of snow in one fell dump. It depends on which end of town you choose as to how much snow you get. Where you want to live depends on 1. income, 2. lifestyle: Sunriver, just outside of town where a lot of residents live and commute to bend (about 25 - 30 minute drive, depending), is gorgeous, but uber expensive (and a lot of HOAs). Redmond, north of Bend where a lot more people commute is far less expensive, but a bit farther away.
Construction has slowed dramatically. I am in the construction industry and communicate with friends on the City Council, and I can assure you, Bend is hurting from the lack of construction. While commercial is fluctuating a little more than usual, residential has hit an all-time low and the resulting unemployment rates are currently higher than normal (this from both the UE office and the banks). However, I have heard rumor it is going to expand outside of Bend soon, and there will be a lot of commuting
I can assure you that the quality of housing in Bend, sucks. Even on the Butte, I have watched the million+ dollar homes be bid out to some pretty low-end contractors employing *ahem* less than legal labor, and upon inspection, our crew found faults we wouldn't expect to see in a portable home!! You will also expect to pay $250k upwards, to look in your neighbors window out of every section of your house. They have even resorted to SanFran style rowhousing/condos in some areas that are $1million plus.
I know of 12 people who are all taking losses on their homes in the market - ranging from good homes in GREAT neighborhoods, to some pretty EXCELLENT homes in gated communities - so be careful. Our politics are also skewed to a totalitarian extent. Before anyone takes that as a conspiracy - a recent headline in our newspaper read: DUII's rampant in Deschutes, and follows one only less than half a year old about how Meth is rampant in Central Oregon - each article supporting the same cause: more money for the police. Ask any Oregonian - even the real estate agents about the police community here, and you'll hear from some very scared and timid individuals on the control levels. Good in some aspects, but to consider that everyone who lives in our area is a meth addict or alcoholic, as accused by our own newspaper in order to encourage support for the City Council to increase police funding, is pretty disgusting. So, depending on your stance, that may or may not be something you'd like.
Schools are very good here (IMHO), but school hours and resources for before and after school care are strapped, including the Boys and Girls Club that has turned down over 100 children in the last school year already due to overwhelming numbers. Expect your bills [Bend] to be as follows:
Cable: $35 Digital: $40 (no special packages, increases every year)
More private areas like sunriver can be around $60 on a coop
water: $35-$40 city/private
Power: $45-$80 summer/$160-$240 winter (yes, the power cos in our communities are causing the residents to be spiked and increasing cost of living issues dramatically)
Sewer: $30 city (est.)/$3000 for septic drain every 3-4 years
Internet: Cable: $45+/DSL $45+ (why no difference - beats me)
Phone: Qwest landline $30/privates $12 - $20/cells - same as everywhere else - but coverage and reception in this area is REALLY bad
Garbage: $40+/mo ($10 to take it to the dump on your own!)
Daycare: $400+ upwards
Gas: Avg $3.00+ for lowest
Rentals: 2bd/1bth - $1200+
3bd/2bth - $1500+
Ownership: 2bd/1bth - $1800+
3bd/1bth - $2200+ (based on AWESOME credit)
Housing costs: 2bd/1bth - $200k - $300k depending on location
3bd/1bth - $450k - $500k (gets much worse...)
Taxes - ARE 12% for the state - do NOT be mislead, my family member is an accountant and does taxes at year's end - it is high; $22k-$24k is income from a $30k job)
Income - ooh - bend is really, really, really bad. Yes, there are jobs. No - no one here seems to have the faintest sense of economics. Low end/wage employers (ie. your walmarts, albertsons, etc.) demand executive work for $7.50 (which averages about $18-$20k after taxes), mid range employers/wage and salary (reception, accounting, general labor construction), expect high end performance for $9-$12 per hour (which is about $24-$26k after taxes), and high end employers (the few there are - but relates to doctors, lawyers, etc.); they seem to live exceptionally well - although I've heard horror stories from many of them that they can't keep up with their mortgages, etc.
Skilled laborers - are challenged here:
IT is a major issue - what a general help desk tech can make in a back-end town in montana (minimum $40k), turns out to be about $22-$30k in Bend, demanding much higher qualifications.
Commercial construction skilled labor/repair construction seems to do okay as long as they get some prevailing wage/insurance work every year.
Professional Services such as dentists, lawyers, etc. - are all making bank, but mainly off of their current clientele. Many have resorted to some pretty "purple gorilla" style tactics. A lot have been dependent on the welfare/state's payments - and that is being cut again this year. Trying to start a new business will also be heavily controlled by the City taxation and property taxes in town for businesses (which on the main st., 3rd - can be as high as $1 million+ for what is considered prime, although it's traffic location makes it far less than prime, it is small, and many businesses have been run out - which is why a lot of businesses have depended on the growth in the far West and East end of towns, but met with trouble from the biggies who have been here for a while that get first dibs).

Overall - hey, I came from CA over 12 years ago, and I'm a LOT happier here. I grew up in a small town in CA that is now 10 times its size, and so I have nowhere to go back to, and I'm certainly not interested in Montana. Hate the snow-covered roads in winter that the city won't get on top of clearing, but love the snow - so it's a wash. Summertime is great, although it can get boiling hot, but thank goodness for fans and iced tea, huh? There are more and more family events occurring every year which is awesome - and the city council has abandoned their 400 year plan to make Bend a retirement community for ex-actors who have multi-million dollar accounts. Of course, that plan has now caused there to be a financial class range from the extremely impoverished to the overwhelmingly rich (but those of us in the low-mid range never get to see them anyway ).

it's still growing - there's still room for change, and hey - maybe if the polls go a little better this year, there's still room for good change! Hope that helps!

[neal93]

cybersmom,
I'm going to print out your great response & study it carefully. Sounds like we're in the same industry (I'm an architect) & your comments are very helpful. We want to move from our current home here in the desert southwest- especially now that the economy is in free fall. We've always been curious about Oregon, but wanted to stay away from constant rain. I lived in Northern Cal for awhile & remember how the economy was so seasonal. We don't really want to move to an economy that is also bad so was monitoring Bend for info on when/how long it might take for bend to pick back up. Would like very much to be able to email you directly on occasion as your response was so informative. If interested, my email address is [Mod cut] . Thanks for your response either way...

[delta07]

Yes, thanks cybersmom. My husband and I will be visiting Bend next month. We are considering relocating to the area as well, but know the cost of living will be greater for us. It was nice of you to give such a detailed post.

[Patricktrow]

There have been some great responses here, I've lived in Bend for 8+ years, we moved here from Valley Forge , Pa. It was very quaint and pretty slow paced back then, it has changed a lot but, it is still one of my favorite places on the planet, 1job market sucks (who cares) 2 real estate is crashing (big time)3 unemployment is soaring 4 small business's pick any idea you can dream up for a great business and there are enough for a city 6 times the size of Bend. Yes, we still absolutely love it, most of the people are super friendly and after about a week you will start to see people around town you know.(it's still that small) If you live anywhere in the city limits everything is close, pretty much a five mile radius, before we moved to Tumalo we put under 10k miles a year on the cars( in 05 my wife did 4,400 miles), we got lucky and sold our downtown house for good money in Jan believe it or not, and we are now renting waiting the market out for a sweet acreage piece, rents are rather cheap compared to what it would cost to buy, we rent a $700k house on ten acres for $1,400 per month yes high but not compared to my landlords payment. People are trying to push the rents up but I know owners are getting desperate so if you make offers on rentals you will get a nice house for far less than it would cost to own. Downtown is really cool, you can get everywhere on bicycle easily and Bend is a very safe town.Summers are awesome! lots of festivals and activities going on weekly most of the summer, definitely check out munch and music thursday nights in drake park for part of the summer, free concerts at the ampitheatre on Sundays all summer long and the series of pay concert acts is top notch Willie Nelson, Allison Krause and I think Bob Dillon made it this year and many other great acts.Incredible breweries and restaurants, we have so many great beers in this town it's amazing. World class mountain bike trail systems that get better by the week, it is truly one of the top mountain bike places in the country, several top mountain bike racers live here. We have considered leaving but find it very difficult to leave this very comfortable/ quality place to live, if you are determined you can make it here, just don't get sucked into the keep up with the jones program so many have done here and you'll be fine , keep the debt low. There are a lot of loaded transplants from SoCal some very rude and some super cool, most driving there $50k SUV's but they just add to the flavor of this town and overall everyone gets along pretty good. This winter was pretty cold and snowy for a while but for the last week and a half it's been bluebird sunny and highs in the 50's and even a couple days my truck thermometer read 61 I've worn shorts for the last two days straight, not bad for feb in the mountains. Be careful once you come here you might never leave. Take care

[btc65]

Some of the home builders in the Bend area are offering some great deals right now. Bend is still growing, so I am sure the economy will rebound quickly. Check out [Mod cut] This is a great homebuilder in the Bend area offering luxurious green built homes.

[Lootmeister]

Being overly familiar with many of the eastern/western oregon towns, I can confirm that what patricktrow said in his post is 100% true.

I couldnt have said it any better myself.

What surprised me about bend was that for how small it is, it has all the necessary BIG stores like best buy etc.

Lots of towns the size of bend lack that AND things to do. Bend lacks neither.