Marijuana Legalization In Oregon (phone, seniors, church)

[Larry Caldwell]

Originally Posted by Steve Pickering

It is illegal for everyone in the USA. Some states just allow illegal activity.

It is illegal in interstate commerce. Within a state it is subject to state laws, not federal laws. The theory the feds have been working on is that the source involves interstate commerce. In the case of state legalization, all cannabis sold through state stores will be grown within the state, so the feds don't have jurisdiction.

[pdxMIKEpdx]

Even Lars is saying that it's too close to call.

[Xander_Crews]

Originally Posted by Metlakatla

No one here has a crystal ball, and I don't really get the assumption made by some that those who *would* vote for it somehow can't or won't vote, and the speculation concerning the character of those who will vote is rather...well, it's a distant cousin of disingenuous, I suppose.

I was on a research panel recently on the subject that strongly indicated that this thing is going to pass. It'll probably go in Alaska too (it's been decriminalized there to the extent that everyone considers it legal, and the feds have yet to don their jackboots over it).

It's weed's time, that's all. It was only criminalized in the first place because all those darned jazz musicians...

Support for legalization is on a steady upward trajectory. I think legalization at a national level is around the corner because of public support growing every day.

It is because of that same strong public support that I believe the measure in Oregon will pass, all reputable polling organizations I have seen results from say that, among voters, the measure has majority support.

Saying that the measure will pass in Oregon is taking the statistically safe bet at this point.

[delta07]

Originally Posted by Xander_Crews

Sorry, I thought it would be allowed as the federal legal status has some bearing on the conversation.

I won't make any further comments that are not strictly related to whether or not the voters will pass the measure in Oregon.

I understand your point, but the bickering back and forth about whether it's legal or not is not productive to the conversation, so I've decided it's best to remove it from further debate.

[Xander_Crews]

Originally Posted by delta07

I understand your point, but the bickering back and forth about whether it's legal or not is not productive to the conversation, so I've decided it's best to remove it from further debate.

Sounds good. I would hate to drag the conversation off-topic anyway. I am very interested in the core concept about whether or not the measure will pass in Oregon.

[BendLocal]

Does anyone have a link to a poll or research showing strong public support for Measure 91?

[Xander_Crews]

Originally Posted by BendLocal

Does anyone have a link to a poll or research showing strong public support for Measure 91?

Link to poll results.

This one shows 53% in support with only 38% against. That is a double digit lead.

[BendLocal]

Interesting breakdown from the poll results in the link above.

Strongly support 35%
Somewhat support 19%
Somewhat oppose 9%
Strongly oppose 29%
Don’t know 9%

[Xander_Crews]

Originally Posted by BendLocal

Interesting breakdown from the poll results in the link above.

Strongly support 35%
Somewhat support 19%
Somewhat oppose 9%
Strongly oppose 29%
Don’t know 9%

Interesting to note, if you take the "don't know" percentage of 9% and add it to the stated margin of error (4.9%), you get 13.9% which is less than the spread between support and oppose of 15%.

So even if the "don't know"s voted against, and the margin of error went the way of opposing it, it would still pass.

Just something I noted.

[Steve Pickering]

Those who sign petitions, and those who answer polls do not match with those who actually vote or can vote. When you take the same poll with only voters who have voted in the past, the measure fails by a huge margin.