Weather Forecasting (Medford, Ashland, Klamath Falls: appointed, airports, moving)

[Imperial1904]

I've noticed that the local weather forecasting (mostly Klamath Falls) isn't really accurate. What I mean is, for example, in Klamath Falls the forecast was to be 3-5 inches of snow last night. There was even a snow warning until 7 pm yesterday. I wake up this morning and there's isn't even a (new) snowflake on the ground.

This is usually the case when a storm comes through. They'll predict a good chance of rain and not even a trace will be recorded. They predict something like 20% chance of rain and it's a down pour. The only area that has reported weather accurately is the Coastal area.

Sometimes it seems like a storm will purposely avoid Klamath Falls. When I look at a storm radar, it looks like the storm will come through Klamath, but it takes a detour north.

[Tesaje]

Originally Posted by Imperial1904

Sometimes it seems like a storm will purposely avoid Klamath Falls. When I look at a storm radar, it looks like the storm will come through Klamath, but it takes a detour north.

Storms do not have intentional thought. However, Klamath Falls is on the lee side of the Cascades so a lot of storms will dry out as the air goes up over the west side, gets wrung out, and then down the east side to KF. Air moving down heats up so it is harder to meet the dewpoint and form precipitation. This is commonly known as a rain shadow.

Significant mountains make forecasting harder since the local effects of the terrain can make huge differences in what the clouds do.

[StealthRabbit]

true... on the west side, they have it down to the minute... if they say rain in the afternoon, you best have the top up on your convertible by 12:01PM

Mountains create several issues, but in our case it is usually how heavy the incoming storms are laden with moisture, as they need to 'off load' on the we_tside to get over the mtns. + they have to squeeze out the High pressure clear weather.

The forecasting near airports is improving with the sensors and monitoring they are adding to commercial planes.

[PNW-type-gal]

Also, the storms change as they come ashore - so the prediction, in our end of town anyway, is based on what they think will happen when the storm hits land, comes across the Coast Range, across the Medford area, and then the Cascades.

There are a lot of ways for that forecast to go wrong.

I was a bit disappointed to wake up this morning and see no snow, too - we have small patches on the ground here and there, but nothing major...

[PNW-type-gal]

..and this morning we have about 5" on the deck. From looking at Tripcheck and the ODOT cams, it looks like I-5 at the Siskiyou Summit might be closed, at least temporarily. The Medford and Ashland cams show snow, too.

Big storm, apparently.

[Imperial1904]

Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal

Big storm, apparently.

2 days late.