Oregon Real Estate Forecast (new house, to buy, trailer)

[antsy22]

I was asking about NE Salem. Is that a decent area? What are the bad areas of salem?
Thanks in advance

[sharonaly]

I like Housing Predictor, and while I would prefer that prices don't fall too much, 8% wouldn't surprise me. We went up (roughly) 11% in 2005, 20% in 2006 and 5-6% in 2007. If we lose 8% it will put us at an average of 7% for the past 4 years. That's still higher than usual.

[Silverfall]

NE Salem-it depends. There are two areas called Jan Ree and Hayesville that have had a lot of new construction over the past few years. This has shifted the economics of the area a little bit pulling in more middle class families. The area around Hammond Elementary school is nice. Otherwise it's pockets in that area.

McKay High School has some issues and while improving has a ways to go. I guess in order to define it as good or not, I would need to know what your needs are. Hit and miss is more how I would describe it.

[Silverfall]

Oops...you asked about bad areas of Salem. I am going to answer this based on where I would live or not.

I personally would avoid anything in the Nortgate neighborhood. Richmond is also concerning. Highland seems to be an improving neighborhood. Englewood is beautiful. Four Corners/Houck area seems to be having some issues and would want to look closely at crime stats for that area and school performances before moving there. The flats in West Salem, probably not, the hills in West Salem, yes. South Salem good place to live, there are a few not so great pockets, but most is great. NE Salem, around Hammond Elementary yes, but most other areas I would be cautious about (pockets again).

For the most part, most of Salem is fine. Nortgate is the only solid area that I would consider "bad" with pockets in other areas. Northgate is a designated rejuvination district by the City of Salem, so hopefully it will improve in the years to come.

[Waterlily]

Originally Posted by Tim Rankin

Hot off the press.

Oregon Real Estate, Portland, Eugene, Salem, Medford, Corvallis, Bend

I read a lot of this stuff in the news but it doesn't all agree when it comes to the northwest. I really think these things are not much better than a guessing game.
If prices go down a small percentage it has no effect on many of us. If there is still quite a bit of demand for housing than I can't see the prices going down. Most likely it'll be different in each city.

[Silverfall]

Waterlily is right in my opinion. Not only is the market individual for each city, it's individual for neighborhoods and types of homes, (land vs. resale vs. new construction).

I think stats are a good thing, but they do need to be used with caution and appropriately.

[jfwells]

Originally Posted by seven of nine

Many people commute to portland but live in salem

And many that work in Salem live in Portland. I know several personally that work in the government but have no desire to live down there.

[bobmulk]

Actually, Eugene re-claimed its position as second-largest city in Oregon according to the Population Research Center. As someone who has been studying population growth for 35 years, I find the increase they ascribed to Eugene this past year to be troublesome--5,000+ people? I sincerely doubt that. Oftentimes, the PRC will show a city with a huge increase which is meant to make up for underestimates previously.

Nevertheless, if Eugene is back to number two after two years at number three, it's only a matter of time before Salem re-claims number two. Why? Salem is more pro-growth than Eugene and Salem has an abundance of land on which to build which Eugene does not have. Also, Salem is aggressively pursuing economic development which Eugene is not doing and Salem is becoming an exurb of Portland as the Portland Metro Area fills up and becomes more pricey.

[tulegirl]

Originally Posted by seashelly

(Elcapitan, is the town of Oakridge near to Eugene? because a week or so ago on the local news, I saw a segment on Oakridge and it was claiming the same thing - something big moving in and suppose to turn things around for that town.)

I'm not elcapitan - but yes, Oakridge is a little community just east of Eugene/Springfield. Last place for food/fuel before tackling the Willamette Pass to Hwy 97.

[bacalhau]

Originally Posted by Waterlily

I read a lot of this stuff in the news but it doesn't all agree when it comes to the northwest. I really think these things are not much better than a guessing game.
If prices go down a small percentage it has no effect on many of us. If there is still quite a bit of demand for housing than I can't see the prices going down. Most likely it'll be different in each city.

I wish i could agree with you
Reality is - it's over - this market itself is just delayed to other ones, as it happen to the increase, will happen to the decrease....

The Oregon Economics Blog: Housing Market

Oregon is not an independent economy from the rest of the country - gas prices are high here too, and the lending industry melted down ..too.
So, among many others factors, where does this leave us? Wait and see - that is what many potential buyers are doing, and as bankruptcies and foreclosures increase, so it will the stockpile of avaialble houses, plus plenty of builders willing to get ride of their stock at any cost.
I should have sold my house last year - now is just going to be harder and harder.
Don't take my word - research
Only ones predicting good news are realtors and home sellers - no one else



and more yet

Portland Housing Blog: April 2008