What's wrong with the Oregon economy? (Portland: how much, bankrupt, schools)

[redguard57]

Collapse of timber / logging jobs?
Lack of good transportation networks?
Environmental regulations?
Bad policy from Democrats and/or Republicans?
Something else?
That pesky spotted owl?

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Our economy seems in pretty fair shape.


The main problem we are having is the employee union retirement system- PERS.


It was a deal with the devil and is close to bankrupting the state. As an example, my sister got in to the union at age 25. She worked until age 55 and retired 12 years ago with 107% of pay + 100% paid for healthcare for life. The employees contribute nothing. It is on the backs of tax payers (of course, the union employees pay their fair share of taxes).


The state tried to unilaterally change the pension, but the State Supreme Court vacated the changes. And frankly, I think it was the proper legal decision no matter how much it hurts.


Now, the union has placed an initiative to raise business taxes to cover the fallout. Needless to say it is a cleverly disguised initiative, but nonetheless they are like the emperor and his clothes on this matter. It's a Catch-22 situation. If the initiative fails, then it could be catastrophic for the state as it strains under the massive PERS burden. If it passes, plus the incremental raise in the minimum wage recently signed into law, it could be very harmful to businesses in the state. The union refuses to budge on the retirement system so compromise seems out of reach.


The next 5-10 years will be quite interesting.


It is also interesting to note Portland (or, Potland as it is now known as) has the largest contingency of workers paid under the table in the nation. In fact, I read an article (can't remember where) that sociologists from around the world are studying it. It's around 30,000 workers total. Down the road there could be a fallout from this as well.

[IowaRose]

I wonder how Initiative Petition 28 will affect the Oregon economy if it is passed. I loved Oregon when we visited recently, but I don't know if we will ever be able to move there because of the economy. Somedays, I just wonder if the economy is good anywhere anymore.

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Originally Posted by IowaRose

I wonder how Initiative Petition 28 will affect the Oregon economy if it is passed. I loved Oregon when we visited recently, but I don't know if we will ever be able to move there because of the economy. Somedays, I just wonder if the economy is good anywhere anymore.

It will have a very harmful impact on mid to large companies that operate under small margins. It would be speculation as to how they will deal with it. They could move, or partially do so. They could sell out or struggle along. But the kicker could be when the full amount of the recently minimum wage kicks in. Like throwing gas on a fire.


To be sure, the economy will not collapse, but there will be a lot of changes- and none good for employees.

[IowaRose]

I haven't really been following the minimum wage increase in Oregon. What is it supposed to go up to & when?

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Originally Posted by IowaRose

I haven't really been following the minimum wage increase in Oregon. What is it supposed to go up to & when?

Depending on the area of the state, $12-15/hr. I think the full effect is in 4 years.

[bler144]

It goes up by $0.50 (at least in Portland) next month, but the big jump is a year later on 7/1/17 (I think Portland goes to $11.25?).

[SWCM7950]

Originally Posted by IowaRose

I wonder how Initiative Petition 28 will affect the Oregon economy if it is passed. I loved Oregon when we visited recently, but I don't know if we will ever be able to move there because of the economy. Somedays, I just wonder if the economy is good anywhere anymore.

Pffttttttttt....MN has a great economy!!! Iowa is a really great place to live! It may not be as beautiful or as cool as the west coast but there is more to life than that. I've been in MN over a year and this place is a wonderful place for young people to get ahead and for a younger couple to raise a family. Great economy, great schools, lots of educated people.


One big problem with OR is so much of the land and resources are tied up and not utilized because the government owns everything! Like it or not real wealth comes from agriculture, mining, oil extraction, etc. Everything else is just numbers on a computer screen for the most part. Hence why our country is $19 trillion in the hole and never going to get out of it. Oregon needs to start privatizing some of it's land and allow especially young people to do something with those millions of acres. I'm moving to Oregon from MN and the economy here is so much stronger because of private enterprise and private land ownership. The cost of living is cheaper than other areas with thriving economies. There are a lot of educated people to choose from as well for employers due to all the colleges and universities in the metro areas. OR has a lot of problems.


My wife and I have worked our butt off getting to where we are in life. We traveled around to find jobs, took risks, lived out of our comfort zones etc., never had government jobs. Her sister is a Tier 1 PERS retiree. Grew up in the same little town her entire life. My wife and I probably bring in double what her and her husband will or do make yet she will be retiring WAY better than us. As I understand it Oregon hasn't even offered Tier 1 for decades?

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Originally Posted by SWCM7950

Pffttttttttt....MN has a great economy!!! Iowa is a really great place to live! It may not be as beautiful or as cool as the west coast but there is more to life than that. I've been in MN over a year and this place is a wonderful place for young people to get ahead and for a younger couple to raise a family. Great economy, great schools, lots of educated people.


One big problem with OR is so much of the land and resources are tied up and not utilized because the government owns everything! Like it or not real wealth comes from agriculture, mining, oil extraction, etc. Everything else is just numbers on a computer screen for the most part. Hence why our country is $19 trillion in the hole and never going to get out of it. Oregon needs to start privatizing some of it's land and allow especially young people to do something with those millions of acres. I'm moving to Oregon from MN and the economy here is so much stronger because of private enterprise and private land ownership. The cost of living is cheaper than other areas with thriving economies. There are a lot of educated people to choose from as well for employers due to all the colleges and universities in the metro areas. OR has a lot of problems.


My wife and I have worked our butt off getting to where we are in life. We traveled around to find jobs, took risks, lived out of our comfort zones etc. Her sister is a Tier 1 PERS retiree. Grew up in the same little town her entire life. My wife and I probably bring in double what her and her husband will or do make yet she will be retiring WAY better than us. As I understand it Oregon hasn't even offered Tier 1 for decades?

It's my understanding that tier 1 is no longer available and in it's place is a poor substitute.


Privatization of Oregon governmental lands will never happen in any meaningful way. The feds are loathe to give up any land and the state is too sensitive. Also, I don't know about MN, but the environmentalists (be it good or be it bad) have a death hold over the courts and state government. They call all the shots and have full say on how private lands are used. And they are totally self serving- but can be bought if the situation is right.

[SyraBrian]

Originally Posted by BLAZER PROPHET

It is also interesting to note Portland (or, Potland as it is now known as) has the largest contingency of workers paid under the table in the nation. In fact, I read an article (can't remember where) that sociologists from around the world are studying it. It's around 30,000 workers total. Down the road there could be a fallout from this as well.

A good percentage of that are the female magicians who make their clothes disappear.