NW leads the nation in housing overvaluation.... (Portland, Eugene: real estate, rental)

[WorkinStiff]

Out of 330 metro areas, Bend is first in housing overvaluation,Portland is 11th, Salem 12th & Eugene is 14th....This indicates that housing prices have a long way to fall here before bottoming out...This from a study by National City Bank...Portland Housing Blog

[PNW-type-gal]

Originally Posted by WorkinStiff

Out of 330 metro areas, Bend is first in housing overvaluation,Portland is 11th, Salem 12th & Eugene is 14th....This indicates that housing prices have a long way to fall here before bottoming out...This from a study by National City Bank...Portland Housing Blog

While I agree Bend's over-valued, I think a great deal of the appreciation in Oregon's prices, and especially Portland's, had to do with it being the last affordable large city on the west coast. That's why, as their charts show, current price depreciation is amongst the lowest in the Portland area. I don't think it's reasonable to look at 1980 prices and think that they should be the sole benchmark of where current price in the metro area should be, as though cities remain at some static point permanently.

[Nell Plotts]

If you want to explore this issue Google Portland Real Estate Outsider and Seattle Bubble as well.

[bobmulk]

PNWgal, you're so right. Using 1980 as a benchmark is irresponsible. This state is nothing like it was over a QUARTER CENTURY ago. Plus, not long after 1980 Oregon slid into a recession for years that depressed housing. The eighties are irrelevant.

And...who is National City Bank. I'm sorry, but there's only like a billion banks around. How well regarded are their findings?

[ORexpat]

Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal

While I agree Bend's over-valued, I think a great deal of the appreciation in Oregon's prices, and especially Portland's, had to do with it being the last affordable large city on the west coast. That's why, as their charts show, current price depreciation is amongst the lowest in the Portland area. I don't think it's reasonable to look at 1980 prices and think that they should be the sole benchmark of where current price in the metro area should be, as though cities remain at some static point permanently.

According to some recent figures, Portland, which used to be 15-20% cheaper than Seattle, now almost equals it in cost of living. I have made two trips there recently, trying to move back (actually, Yamhill county) and it is way out of my price range. Anything affordable in rental housing has 30 people lined up for it, all making the landlord rich with their up front non -returnable fees. Only one can be chosen. It's as bad as these blasted housing lotteries were in Phoenix during the boom! Prineville and La Pine seem cheaper. I don't know why.

[Nell Plotts]

Because of the lay-offs in wood products.

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Originally Posted by WorkinStiff

Out of 330 metro areas, Bend is first in housing overvaluation,Portland is 11th, Salem 12th & Eugene is 14th....This indicates that housing prices have a long way to fall here before bottoming out...This from a study by National City Bank...Portland Housing Blog

This is no surprise. My closest friend in Atlanta (a city very similar to Portland) purchased a 3800 SF home in a beautiful gated area and he paid $187,000. His 2400 SF ranch (on a full acre, 2-car garage, sunken fireplace area...) was recently appraised at $120,000. Those same houses would be $600,000 & $300,000+ easily in Portland even today. And other large cities like Memphis... are even cheaper.