More Ashland thoughts. (Eugene, Bend, Corvallis: rental market, commuting, properties)

[jrkliny]

I have heard numerous times that Californias have bought many of the houses for investment or future use. Does that mean these houses are vacant or rentals? I have a selfish reason for asking and am considering renting instead of making a full commitment and buying a house.

[NomadicBear]

"It is not clear if prices will eventually fall or have stabilized and will increase."

This is a contradictory statement. Prices cannot "stabilize" if they have not fallen. The answer is that they have fallen, and continue to fall.

"I have heard numerous times that Californias have bought many of the houses for investment or future use. Does that mean these houses are vacant or rentals? I have a selfish reason for asking and am considering renting instead of making a full commitment and buying a house."

There are a plethora of vacant houses all over Ashland, just like most areas of the US. The astronomical increase in local prices was fueled by the absurd valuations in CA real estate, not local wages, and led to a speculative buying frenzy. This was clearly not sustainable, and that model is broken. With CA real estate plunging in price, the same can be expected for all of the OR areas which were driven by CA money.

While Ashland has become a favorite destination for many rich Californians, long term prices will eventually be dictated by what local wages afford. It will take time to work itself out, but it will happen. This is no time for those who work for a living to be purchasing Ashland houses. Your buying opportunities will come sometime well into the future. Right now is a great time to sit back and watch all those rich equity locusts hemorrhage cash.

[Fiddlehead]

Great Post NomadicBear! Tried to rep you, but I guess I have given too much lately.

In any case, I completely agree. Prices for workers are still way out of wack.

Jkliny,

Definitely rent! Many people around here are convinced that we will have a "v-shaped" recovery, and if they hold on for a couple of years, the gravy train will begin rolling again. Nope. The California money machine is tapped out, and eventually prices must reconnect with fundamentals. However, their delusion can be your gain. Because there are so many people holding property for the future, there are many great rentals that the owners are willing to take a loss on rather than selling them at today's prices. Within a year or two, decent deals will begin appearing in Ashland here and there, but why not rent and see if you like the region, then dive in a bit later if you do.

[CCCVDUR]

Originally Posted by jrkliny

Everyone is entitled to an opinion and some aspects of selecting a place are very subjective. Other aspects are measureable. Check out the City Data profile of Ashland. The crime rates are well lower than the national average and by comparison are about half of the rate in Portland. The incomes and educational levels of the residents are also measured. Ashland has a very high number of individuals with college degrees and above. Housing is expensive with plenty of McMansions. For good or bad, the house prices have largely remained very high. It is not clear if prices will eventually fall or have stabilized and will increase. Prices are 30-50% higher than in Talent and Medford just a few miles away. Ashland is hard to characterize since it is a small town which is residential, also a college town, and also a tourist/resort town. I really cannot comment on the drugged-out, non-homeless youths. I guess I was at the wrong places and just did not notice.

Yes indeed, at city-data, Ashland has home prices in the top tier for similar "college-outdoors" towns in the West, competing with Durango, Flagstaff, Sedona, and Santa Fe, NM. 50% with a bachelors is higher than most similar places.

Ashland appears to be both a retirement town than a college town, with peaks on the age distribution at 20 AND also 50 AND also 70, and an average age of 37 (compared to mid-20's in Flagstaff and Durango). Eugene is also in the mid 30's due to families w/ children.

The City-Data crime index averages in the 200's for Ashland, and this is much lower than all similar places except Boulder; Eugene, Durango, Flagstaff, Santa Fe, South Lake Tahoe, Carson City-Reno, Santa Cruz all score much higher.

Educational services and professional/technical provide a significant percentage of employment positions. Cost of living very high at 114 and average pay low at $37K. There is a moderate level of gay couples on city-data, perhaps representing liberal politics and acceptance of diversity? What presidential candidates win in the area?

What is the Ashland unemployment rate? If you move there as an outsider, can you get a job -- or do you have to be a local or college student to get hired?

[Fiddlehead]

Originally Posted by CCCVDUR

What is the Ashland unemployment rate? If you move there as an outsider, can you get a job -- or do you have to be a local or college student to get hired?

The unemployment rate must be somewhere between 14-20% It is a bit hard to gauge in Ashland, because so many people do not seem to need to work. They are either retired, semi-retired, or just plain wealthy.

I would say certainly apply for a job from afar if you are interested. Ashland is mostly transplants, chiefly from California, but also the East Coast, Seattle, and Portland,etc., so I don't think there is the fear of outsiders that you see in some towns. I am sure they just want to fill positions with good skilled people. A nice place to live, but it is best to bring $$$ with, because you won't make it here. California prices and rural Oregon wages.

[CCCVDUR]

Originally Posted by Fiddlehead

The unemployment rate must be somewhere between 14-20% It is a bit hard to gauge in Ashland, because so many people do not seem to need to work. They are either retired, semi-retired, or just plain wealthy.

I would say certainly apply for a job from afar if you are interested. Ashland is mostly transplants, chiefly from California, but also the East Coast, Seattle, and Portland,etc., so I don't think there is the fear of outsiders that you see in some towns. I am sure they just want to fill positions with good skilled people. A nice place to live, but it is best to bring $$$ with, because you won't make it here. California prices and rural Oregon wages.

Thanks, 14%-21% is that the U6 employment number, referring to the underemployed and those who have given up looking? That's very high.

[NomadicBear]

Originally Posted by CCCVDUR

Thanks, 14%-21% is that the U6 employment number, referring to the underemployed and those who have given up looking? That's very high.

The official unemployment rate for Jackson County, OR was 12.1% in November, and no that's not the U6 number. As most people are probably aware of at this point, the governments unemployment figures are almost completely bogus. This 12.1% is most certainly a rosy picture compared to the real figures. Southern Oregon unemployment is of epidemic proportions.

[CCCVDUR]

Originally Posted by NomadicBear

The official unemployment rate for Jackson County, OR was 12.1% in November, and no that's not the U6 number. As most people are probably aware of at this point, the governments unemployment figures are almost completely bogus. This 12.1% is most certainly a rosy picture compared to the real figures. Southern Oregon unemployment is of epidemic proportions.

Then Ashland is simply not a viable alternative for people looking for small "college" towns to move to. Neither is Eugene. Durango, Colorado - very similar to Ashland in terms of demographics (as I mentioned above) - has 4.6% unemployment, and Santa Fe, NM has just 6.5% unemployment. Please understand that some of us young people who are WILLING TO WORK HARD are searching everywhere as we're unemployed and underemployed, and need to compare markets. Clearly, Ashland and Eugene are not the place. Thanks very much for the information.

[Fiddlehead]

Originally Posted by CCCVDUR

Then Ashland is simply not a viable alternative for people looking for small "college" towns to move to. Neither is Eugene. Durango, Colorado - very similar to Ashland in terms of demographics (as I mentioned above) - has 4.6% unemployment, and Santa Fe, NM has just 6.5% unemployment. Please understand that some of us young people who are WILLING TO WORK HARD are searching everywhere as we're unemployed and underemployed, and need to compare markets. Clearly, Ashland and Eugene are not the place. Thanks very much for the information.

I think I would agree. However, as your research suggested, the post-college working family demographic is what we are missing in Ashland, or at least it is the thinnest demographic age class. However, I must say, Ashland is a very tough place to start out. Even if you do land a job, cost of living is high.

One thing I posted above is that with all the people holding investment properties they are reluctant to sell, the rental market might be pretty good right now.

[newt]

Great posts about housing and the economy by NomadicBear and Fiddlehead!