When do you think the home boom will hit again? (Orlando: sales, real estate)

[beckycat]

I know they say it hits every so many years. Any idea when the next "boom" for central FL will be?

[blueoktober]

Years and years away. It has to bust before it can boom again - at least in Orlando.

[Jfunk]

I wouldnt hold your breath for a boom.. However, with the current buyers market there are definitly some good opportunities for a buy and hold strategy.

[tallrick]

Hopefully not in my lifetime, these booms are a real drag!

[AJ67]

not for a while...its a buyers market right now.. good investments out there to be had!

[rholborn]

HOUSING FORECAST
NAR issued its latest forecast: A pickup in existing home sales by the end of 2007 with a recovery in 2008. A rebound in new home sales, according to the forecast, will shadow the resale industry, with a turnaround in 2008. Median existing home prices should drop 1.4 percent in 2007 and rise 1.8 percent in 2008.
It wasn't long ago this forecast predicted 2011, so we'll all have to wait and see!

[mcbadhair]

How can they predict a recovery next year when we have not even seen the bottom yet. We have not cleared out the housing inventory which is still more than a years worth out there. We have not seen the effects of resetting mortages and forclosures. Plus in orlando they keep builting highrise condos which adds the more houses on the market.

The new condos in downtown look cool. THe veranda complex in metro west looks awesomes as well. I think people will pick the new homes or condos that are equal or better priced than the existing ones. This makes it harder for people to sell their properties.

I predict 5 yrs until most place have cleared

[blueoktober]

Originally Posted by mcbadhair

How can they predict a recovery next year when we have not even seen the bottom yet.

I predict 5 yrs until most place have cleare

Your answer: Real Estate Agent. Wishful thinking and I cannot blame them. Orange Co Fl is the largest percent spike in forclosures in America right now according to an article on CNN. They believe by 2008 we will see serious price cuts and massive forclosures.

[rholborn]

Here is the article from the NAR (national association of Realtors) who wrote about the forecast FAR - News & Events - NAR: Home prices to recover in 2008
this is the most up to date latest information, but it could always change next week or next month.

[afghan67]

NAR cannot be trusted. They have continued to move forward the date that they project for a recovery.

The bottom line is that if you look at the fundamentals, there will not be another "boom" in this market for a long time. Keep in mind that the last "boom" was completely artificial - fueled by investors and exotic loan products. The investors are gone (renting their houses for next to nothing) and the lending standards are tight (as they should be - a lot of people bought houses that they had no business owning given their income). The value created in the boom is disappearing.

It's going to get worse before it gets better. Once it hits bottom, I believe you will see prices stay stagnant for a while (its going to take a long time to move all the housing inventory given the number of houses and tightened lending standards). Then you will see a return to "normal" appreciation levels.