Housing Market in a year and half/2 years? (Orlando, University: real estate, apartment)

[carebear2325]

I know predictions aren't always that reliable, but I was hoping someone (or multiple someone's) could fill me in on the buzz down there.

I briefly lived down there - I came down for the WDW College Program and made plans to stick around. Had an apartment in MetroWest (which I hear has REALLY gone downhill) and we had some roommate issues that sent 3 of us back home to regroup with plans to come right back down and start over minus drama. Well, things never got coordinated and I decided I'd wasted too much time not going back to school because I thought I'd be moving and I eventually decided just to finish school at my original University and go back when I was done. Well, by that point the prices started climbing and I gave up on the idea - I just couldn't justify moving and paying that much in rent while there was so much competition for jobs.

Ok, I know that was all pretty unrelated to the topic - but just to throw out there that I'm relatively familiar with the area, have a realistic idea of what to expect (good and bad) and even though I lived in Disney housing and worked for Disney, I know there is MUCH more outside those purple gates.

Every so often I get the bug, and want to move back so this seems like a perfect time to start considering it again - take advantage of someone else's losses. I've been watching job postings, just to get an idea of the job market now and it looks like I can expect to make about $45-50,000 doing what I'm doing right now. That's my worst case scenario. I'm looking at a program right now that'll take about 6 months to complete and put me into a different part of the business I work in. In my area (very small area), the people doing this job make $60-100,000 a year. In my research, Florida is one of the best areas for this job - there's a serious shortage and a lot of people needing this service so there's potential to make a lot more.

I've played with the mortgage calculators - that Bankrate "how much home can you afford" calculator specifically - to figure out what types of homes I can afford. I can't justify the still high cost of rent when that could turn into equity if I bought a home. Using my worst case scenario - doing what I do now, I can afford around $150,000. Using the low end of the payscale for the career change I want to make, I can afford about $200-250,000. And that upper end (for my current area) it'll push me over $350,000.

Just looking at listings right now - there seem to be some nice, newer homes in decent areas that are bank-owned and pre-forclosure that I may be able to afford, especially if I make the career switch.

If I make the switch (highly likely), then I'm not looking to move for another year and a half to two years. I need time to finish the program and want to stay here to get experience and build up my receivables so that I'll still be getting an income when I move and won't be pressed to run out the next day to work.

So. . . what's the market looking like down the road? Any educated guesses? Thanks in advance!

[Newyorker2]

May I ask what exactly it is that you do? What field are you in?

[seeriously]

Just like the speculators who came in on the end got left holding the bag... if you wait a year or so to buy then you will get slim pickings. Nothing lasts forever and the pendulum is set to sway the other way.

[debrajowers]

Currently there is a huge inventory of homes available all over Orange, Seminole and Osceola counties. In Osceola County the last posting was nearly 41 month inventory supply of homes on the market. Depending on where you work you may want to consider finding a home closer to where you work cutting your travel time (and gas costs) down. I am hopeful that the market will stabilize a bit more by year end. There are lots of new subdivisions still being built in the area. I personally live in St. Cloud about 25-30 minutes from Orlando International.

[carebear2325]

Originally Posted by debrajowers

Currently there is a huge inventory of homes available all over Orange, Seminole and Osceola counties. In Osceola County the last posting was nearly 41 month inventory supply of homes on the market. Depending on where you work you may want to consider finding a home closer to where you work cutting your travel time (and gas costs) down. I am hopeful that the market will stabilize a bit more by year end. There are lots of new subdivisions still being built in the area. I personally live in St. Cloud about 25-30 minutes from Orlando International.

Proximity to work isn't really relevant in my case (should've mentioned that) if I complete the training to get certified. I guess I was being pretty vague (and to answer an earlier question) right now I work in a court reporting firm, crosstrained in a couple areas (and if I stayed doing what I'm doing, I wouldn't be tied to court reporting firms) but my main area is the accounting department. . . I'm actually the whole department, LOL. I'm looking at a program to learn verbatim so I can get certified and do court reporting. This means I won't really be working out of an office - travelling to conference rooms, law firms, offices, etc. and then doing the rest of the work (transcribing, proofing, etc) from home. So no matter where I live, I'll have to travel. In some respects that can be a pain, but then again it lets me choose anywhere I want to live without trying to find someplace "close to work."

I used to have family in St. Cloud. I'm more familiar with that side of the Orlando area than others, but open to anything - wherever I can get the biggest bargain on a nice house in a relatively safe area. Just hoping for the best for when I'm ready to make the move!

[cflfan]

I specialize in Orange county and Osceola county and to be honest with i see the market beginning to pick up in 6months to a year. People talk alot about inventorary etc, people are buying but because there is so much out there and so much coming onto the market, it doesnt effect the figures. Even if you wait 6 months i think you wil still get a good deal, but i think some of the inventory will be picked up by then. People forget that recent changes to try to improve the market are making renters think twice, homestead being doubled, rates being lowered. All these things WILL impact the market.
I often hear people say that its cheaper to rent etc etc, and i have to be honest, i dont understand the logic. When you rent you are paying someone elses bills, putting equity into their pockets, so when they sell the property they will make money. By buying and paying your own mortgage that is lining your pockets, so your absolutly right. I think half the problem is people think that the market has alot further to sink, and in trying to wait to get it at rock bottom, they will miss it because they think it will fall further. I happen to think we are already at the bottom and the market is in a state of levelling out. i think it will remain like this for a few months and then show a meaningful rise. There are poster's who mock the NAR stats, but if you do the math yourself you can see the market is neither falling further, or rising.

I hope this helps.

[carebear2325]

Originally Posted by cflfan

I specialize in Orange county and Osceola county and to be honest with i see the market beginning to pick up in 6months to a year. People talk alot about inventorary etc, people are buying but because there is so much out there and so much coming onto the market, it doesnt effect the figures. Even if you wait 6 months i think you wil still get a good deal, but i think some of the inventory will be picked up by then. People forget that recent changes to try to improve the market are making renters think twice, homestead being doubled, rates being lowered. All these things WILL impact the market.
I often hear people say that its cheaper to rent etc etc, and i have to be honest, i dont understand the logic. When you rent you are paying someone elses bills, putting equity into their pockets, so when they sell the property they will make money. By buying and paying your own mortgage that is lining your pockets, so your absolutly right. I think half the problem is people think that the market has alot further to sink, and in trying to wait to get it at rock bottom, they will miss it because they think it will fall further. I happen to think we are already at the bottom and the market is in a state of levelling out. i think it will remain like this for a few months and then show a meaningful rise. There are poster's who mock the NAR stats, but if you do the math yourself you can see the market is neither falling further, or rising.

I hope this helps.

Yes, that does help a lot.

I guess my main hope is that in this time frame that there isn't a total inundation of people swooping in to claim property for the sake of trying to cash in and jacking the rates way back up again. For me, the wait isn't a matter of expecting the market to bottom out . . it's a matter of getting myself set up career-wise so that I feel confident making the move. I'd like to get things settled with me first. I want to get some professional experience. I mean, there's a slight chance that I could get things together in a year - that would give me time to complete this program and start working to gain experience (and get those receivables up!) as well as pay off credit cards to help my DTI (which won't take long, I only owe about $3000 - could be a LOT worse)

[hiknapster]

Great. You're getting advice from someone that wants to unload their Florida home and a real estate agent.

Economists don't expect the market to pick up until 2009 or 2010 and Florida will probably have to wait until much longer than that.

Right now, it is definitely cheaper to rent than own.

Put in a downpayment and watch it fritter away by a dropping market, let alone the transactional costs, property taxes, insurance and repairs. It's a losing proposition. You can find comparative tables on the web, if you look.

[cflfan]

Im sorry i didnt realize that these threads were only for like minded people to leave biased views as opposed to balanced debate. Im sure the original poster is intelligent to take the various arguments and formulate his or her own opinion. Or do you not give people credit for that?

Or is it the policy to try to advertise a doom and gloom scenario only, because i have to admit, in my business that ideology couldnt be further from the truth

[TennisFLA]

Originally Posted by hiknapster

Great. You're getting advice from someone that wants to unload their Florida home and a real estate agent.

Economists don't expect the market to pick up until 2009 or 2010 and Florida will probably have to wait until much longer than that.

Right now, it is definitely cheaper to rent than own.

Put in a downpayment and watch it fritter away by a dropping market, let alone the transactional costs, property taxes, insurance and repairs. It's a losing proposition. You can find comparative tables on the web, if you look.

You are correct. In fact, there was just a story today on CNN Money from Fortune magazine. They examined all the costs of owning and made predictions for the next 5 years. Orlando was the TOP city predicted for a decline over the next 5 years. Prices have to fall the furthest in Orlando to be where they should in relation to rents. Fortune magazine estimates prices in the Orlando area will fall about 34% over the next 5 years. I would advise the original poster to do some research online using various sources such as housing blogs. I would not rely on people in the real estate industry for advice as they have a vested interest in you buying and not renting.