The disagreements on the Central Florida property market (Orlando, Poinciana: short sales, real estate)

[cflfan]

Alot has been made about the Central Florida property market and i have had alot of debates with people on here regarding this(some nice, firendly and interlectually stimulating, some Rude, arrogant and insulting), simply because i believe the market is in a state of levelling out and in 6-12 months time the market will move in an upward trend. I enjoy debating with people in a friendly forum. What i do object to is people who make personal attacks on ALL realtors just because there are some bad ones out there.

I wanted to post a link to an article i came across today, and would be very interested to debate it in an open friendly forum.

If your intention is to post rude personal attacks on my beliefs or the beliefs of other posters. or to simply argue all Realtors are scum and only interested in themselves, then please dont bother posting.

Moderator cut: blog

[bbills03]

[quote=cflfan;2969403]Alot has been made about the Central Florida property market and i have had alot of debates with people on here regarding this(some nice, firendly and interlectually stimulating, some Rude, arrogant and insulting), simply because i believe the market is in a state of levelling out and in 6-12 months time the market will move in an upward trend. I enjoy debating with people in a friendly forum. What i do object to is people who make personal attacks on ALL realtors just because there are some bad ones out there.

I wanted to post a link to an article i came across today, and would be very interested to debate it in an open friendly forum.

If your intention is to post rude personal attacks on my beliefs or the beliefs of other posters. or to simply argue all Realtors are scum and only interested in themselves, then please dont bother posting.



Only thing I do not agree with is your gut feeling about the market heading in an upward trend in 6-12 months, we have been steadily on a decline and have yet to bottom out, we can not move forward until that happens. I am an economist working for the Dept of Labor and my friend we are in a recession and in a downward housing spiral for a solid 24 months. Don't make rash decisions just yet. If you have the ability to buy hold off for a few months, the rates will be lowered again soon. I wish you were right for the economy's sake but we see this all too frequently. We will be 24 months in a decline..........Hang in there!

[Rich_CD]

Originally Posted by bbills03

...we are in a recession and in a downward housing spiral for a solid 24 months...

Well, some houses are priced low enough to make a buck.

However, I agree we are in a recession and we just entered it in the last year. So, we'll probably be in it for a few years.

Also, a "two term" president is leaving office and is putting band-aids on major economic wounds. Why should he care he'll be leaving soon (happens with most every two-term president).

So, when the next president takes office they'll need to "surface the problems left by the last president". They need to blame someone.

[cflfan]

Thank you for your polite responses, i do appreciate it. I was just wondering did either of you take a look at the article that was linked? Also, i think it was bbbil or something like that ( i apologize i forgot your handle), what did you mean to make money on? Are you talking about buying for purely investment or as a home. Because if your talking about buying as a home, assuming its going to be a long term investment you would make money on it. If its for investment t okeep for a couple of years i think you would still make money on it, but and im sure your not one of these people, but there are alot of peopple out there who think they can make a quick and easy buck on investment properties, whilst it may be possible, i wouldnt expect to see the all time highs which we saw in recent years for a long time, whilst i think the market will reboud in 6-12 months, i dont think it is going to sky rocket to record highs like before.

[Forum Guy]

My only concern with the market at the moment is the ability to have customers approved with less than perfect credit. The stated deals are almost a thing of the past, and the customers that are full doc still can not find a home that will fit there needs. I see the market declining and will continue to do so for the rest of this year. The rates have gone back up, which shows that things are not good.

[Karl99]

1. 32% appreciation if you purchased a home 3 years ago? Please provide 10 real world examples of homes that were purchased 3 years ago and sold in the last few months for a 32% appreciation. Subtract all carrying costs, upgrades and maintenance costs please.

2. Lenders have tightened up. Where will the financing come from?

3. For 100 years home prices correlated with 2.5-3 times income. Why can people afford more house relative to income now than in the past 100 years?

4. Why is there so much inventory? There are 1000s of real estate industry people in the Orlando area. Why not buy up all these houses as they are such great investments?

5. Inflation has accelerated the past few months and will escalate. Gas is headed to $3.50-4.00, food prices are going up fast. Since people will have less money to put towards housing as we move forward, how will they afford to spend more for housing?

6. Credit Suisse has a chart showing all the loans due to reset. Many will reset over the next 18 months, even more than the past 18 months. As this will cause foreclosures to increase even more than the record numbers the past year, how can prices go up?

7. The housing bubble blog has been accurate the past 4 years. They say prices will decline for the next 2-3 years. Why should we ignore them since their track record is documented?

8. Fortune magazine has also been accurate. They say Orlando will fall 34% over the next 5 years. Why should they be ignored when their track record is well documented?

9. Why should I buy when I can rent for less than half the cost of buying? The historic rent multiples in Orlando for 100 years were around 110 times annual rent. Why should I ignore this and buy at 200-300 rent multiples?

[cflfan]

You make some great and valid points and i cant disagree with you. when i look at the market, and i take certain areas out the feeling i have is that we are are not at the base totally and i will explain why. If you look at each area, there are properties on the market which are very well priced. In fact priced lower than they have been for many years. The problem in my opinion is that there are alot of realtors out there who over price properties, probably just to get the listing, but also i suspect because they dont have the backbone to tell their clients that their properties arnt worth what they want, which is why there are alot of over priced homes out there. I think, that in the next few months, people will come to their senses, realizing they cant sell, be it because alot are impatient, while others dont have time on their side and will be forced into foreclosure or to go through the short sales route, and in the next 6 months prices will reset along the lines of the well priced properties in the market. Thus in a years time, the market will have re-adjusted, and all the mortgages which are about to reset in 18 months or so people will either have to refinance, or sell, well they will want to do this before the changes take place, and with a market which has re adjusted, assuming they are reasonable in their pricing strategy, they will be able to list in a market which is slowly but surely rebounding. and i would like to give you an example of what i mean. the average price of homes in the Poinciana area is around the $220,000. However there are good homes in that area listed tat are NOT in foreclosure for $130,000. these prices havent been seen for years. The problem is there are alot of over priced homes on the market and its difficult to find these homes amongst them.

I think that yes in the short term, i.e 6 months you will see all these over priced homes fall in price to the rate of the good value homes, i feel that the market will recoup. However, when i say the market will get better from there, i dont expect prices to rocket to the rates we have seen, but a more slow gradual climb to more reasonable levels, where i feel it will level out. the problem is alot of people hear that the market will crash and you will be able to get properties at stupid prices. I just dont think that will happen. Will prices fall in line to what they shoud be at the moment but arnt, probably yes, but i think the market will pick up, and dont forget, alot of europeans buy over here, and when they see the market prices fall again in line, they will start snapping up properties, which will give local buyers greater confidence.

Just my thoughts but i would be interested on what you think

[Brasstec]

cflfan....question.....specualting 10 years down the road.....how much impact will this Pine Castle Jeep Range issue have on the homes included in the 1940's boundaries?

[cflfan]

I have to be honest with you and say that i dont know the answer to that. I know that the city of Orlando had halted all contruction work on the area until a thorough a survey of the area had been conducted because it wasnt safe as everybody had thought, but beyond that i havent heard anymore about it since the tail end of last year. The whole situation with possible/probable soil contamination, and the original search area having to be expanded is of great cause for concern. How it will affect the future i just dont know and wouldnt like to speculate. what are your thoughts on it and are you actually located in the Vista Lakes area?

Will home values be affected in this area? who knows(but i suspect they will). What are your thoughts on it?

[michael c]

Originally Posted by cflfan

Alot has been made about the Central Florida property market and i have had alot of debates with people on here regarding this(some nice, firendly and interlectually stimulating, some Rude, arrogant and insulting), simply because i believe the market is in a state of levelling out and in 6-12 months time the market will move in an upward trend. I enjoy debating with people in a friendly forum. What i do object to is people who make personal attacks on ALL realtors just because there are some bad ones out there.

I wanted to post a link to an article i came across today, and would be very interested to debate it in an open friendly forum.

If your intention is to post rude personal attacks on my beliefs or the beliefs of other posters. or to simply argue all Realtors are scum and only interested in themselves, then please dont bother posting.

The market is going to get alot worse. This will take at least another year or more, the projections for foreclosures is 1.4 million this year alone compared to 500,000 this past year.
If they want to get things going alittle in the housing market they need to lower the mortgage rates to encourage people that can buy to do it. It will not stop this mess thats coming but it may help, instead they are raising mortgage rates and who wants to buy paying these high rates. Wouldn't it make sense to drop rates to 5% or 5.25% to get things going instead they raise them to 6 % it makes no sense. Now you have the people who might buy or could not want to do it and pay these high rates, so they decide to wait too and you have nobody buying? What a mess with NO end in sight....

The market is going to get alot worse. This will take another year or more before we come out of this mess if not longer. The projections for foreclosures is 1.4 million for this year compared to the staggering 500,000 last year. It would help if they wanted to try and get something started in the housing market to lower the mortgage rates to 5 % or 5.25 %. This would get the people who are thinking about buying motivated to do just that. It will not fix this mess but may help alittle. Instead what do they do they raise the mortgage rates and people who could or might buy don't because they don't want to pay these high mortgage rates. Now you have nobody buying or doing anything they figure they will just wait, it makes no sense. This mess will get alot worse.