Rising Housing Costs vs. Stagnant Incomes - What will come of it? (Miami: condos, how much)

[WithDisp]

Not that it hasn't been discussed at all before, but the average housing prices are creeping over $200K for old units and at 300-350K for new.

Downtown Orlando is wildly expensive with units in the 150K+ for a 1 BR, and 250K+ for a 2BR with condo fees.

Given the median income is terribly low in Orange County, how will this hold up over the next few years?

The lending isn't loose like pre-bubble, but the prices have made it back to that point.

What gives?

[bmw335xi]

I think people in Orlando will face reality of desirable cities like Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, New York City, Washington DC etc.

What I mean by that is there are plenty of condos in Orlando still available for $100k or less. A family doesn't need a 3+ bedroom single family house in the heart of Winter Park in order to survive. I have said it before and I will say it again, people here are quite spoiled when it comes to housing standards.

However, like all things, there eventually will be another housing crash, another economic crash, another stock market crash and things will reset somewhat and those who saved will be rewarded.

My final note, this isn't something unique to Orlando, it is across most of the country, especially desirable cities experiencing a lot of new residents.

[WithDisp]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I think people in Orlando will face reality of desirable cities like Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, New York City, Washington DC etc.

All those cities have powerhouse economies with incredible job opportunities. Orlando absolutely does not.

The desirable expensive cities like Ft. Lauderdale and Miami have a lot of foreign money and retirees coming in. Also, Orlando does not. Those two are the only cities in the nation that beat Orlando in home/rental affordability vs. income.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by WithDisp

All those cities have powerhouse economies with incredible job opportunities. Orlando absolutely does not.

The desirable expensive cities like Ft. Lauderdale and Miami have a lot of foreign money and retirees coming in. Also, Orlando does not. Those two are the only cities in the nation that beat Orlando in home/rental affordability vs. income.

And their housing is 100-500% higher than Orlando, yet their wages aren't anywhere near that much more. And once again, there is tons of poverty in those cities, yes there is higher job growth opporunity but for most people it's impossible to own anything there at these prices and income.

[ScottFL78]

Housing cost just needs to be a priority if you want to live here. Supply and demand. Florida is warm and people hate snow. Just my opinion.

[bmw335xi]

Here is an example from one of my friends in San Francisco. She is in her late 30's an architect with a masters degree earning close to $90k which is more than the average person there. She was talking to me tonight about room mate issues because even professionals in their 30s have room mates, which is normal because of the housing vs wage ratio there.

"I didn't participate in their stupid house meeting, cleaning schedule, so I said ok, I will minimize use of bathroom lol"

She is now taking most of her showers at the gym she attends because her roomies are fighting over water usage and chores. Yep, people in Orlando don't know how much worse it can be in the cities they seem to pleasure themselves to at night thinking if I only I lived there I would be eating cavier every day.

[Iris14]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I think people in Orlando will face reality of desirable cities like Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, New York City, Washington DC etc.

What I mean by that is there are plenty of condos in Orlando still available for $100k or less. A family doesn't need a 3+ bedroom single family house in the heart of Winter Park in order to survive. I have said it before and I will say it again, people here are quite spoiled when it comes to housing standards.

No offense, but I think it is quite laughable to compare Orlando to any of those cities. People move to those cities because they have advanced degrees or skills and can potentially get excellent paying jobs in the businesses or industries that populate those areas. There are no Facebooks or Wall Streets or Hollywoods or...well, I could go on and on, but you get the picture, in Orlando. The fact that housing costs rise in desirable, well-paid areas is to be expected. The question posed though was about how they rising so steeply here, a city where the proportions do not add up. Don't get me wrong, I think that San Francisco and maybe even New York are crazily priced, but people living there seem to be able to pay it, or at least they stay there and keep working. Maybe your friend has to have roommates, but on the other hand she probably wouldn't be making $90K in Orlando or another more "affordable" city - or else why not move? I would love to live in those cities, but I am poorer and could never afford it so I don't even entertain moving there.

The rents here have also gone crazy. I moved to my current house 5 years ago, I pay $1100 a month rent, less than 1500 SF. The EXACT house down the street rented out a few months ago for $1650. The one directly next door sold for $270K a few months ago (which I think was crazy; it's bigger but also 25 years old and not even that nice). I don't live in a fancy area; I am near Conway, less than a block away from Semoran Blvd. and Curry Ford. Not Dr. Philips or Winter Park.

You keep comparing Orlando to San Francisco (which I think is crazy, culture-wise), BUT ---- I think the point you're missing is that no one who lives here actually wants it to become like that here, a place where only rich people can live comfortably and everyone else should just suck it up and learn to love sharing a condo in Pine Hills because housing has become barely affordable for even middle-income households. I don't care that everyone in San Francisco pays a gazillion dollars to live there, that's their problem. I don't think anyone thinks San Francisco is a city that should be held up as a positive example regarding affordability and income equality. I do however care about Orlando and it's future because I live here, and so do my friends and family, and not all of them have great paying jobs, just like an awful lot of other people in Orlando.

[boy3365]

Originally Posted by Iris14

No offense, but I think it is quite laughable to compare Orlando to any of those cities. People move to those cities because they have advanced degrees or skills and can potentially get excellent paying jobs in the businesses or industries that populate those areas. There are no Facebooks or Wall Streets or Hollywoods or...well, I could go on and on, but you get the picture, in Orlando. The fact that housing costs rise in desirable, well-paid areas is to be expected. The question posed though was about how they rising so steeply here, a city where the proportions do not add up. Don't get me wrong, I think that San Francisco and maybe even New York are crazily priced, but people living there seem to be able to pay it, or at least they stay there and keep working. Maybe your friend has to have roommates, but on the other hand she probably wouldn't be making $90K in Orlando or another more "affordable" city - or else why not move? I would love to live in those cities, but I am poorer and could never afford it so I don't even entertain moving there.

I was going to say something similar, but I think BMW could be saying that we have it good here compared to those cities.

I think it would be wise to compare Orlando to similarly sized metros (by population) like Baltimore, Charlotte, Portland, San Antonio, Las Vegas.

[kyle19125]

Originally Posted by boy3365

I was going to say something similar, but I think BMW could be saying that we have it good here compared to those cities.

I think it would be wise to compare Orlando to similarly sized metros (by population) like Baltimore, Charlotte, Portland, San Antonio, Las Vegas.

I disagree with the comparison points because Orlando lacks the economic diversity and salaries associated with cities like Baltimore, Portland and Charlotte. San Antonio could be a stretch and would agree Las Vegas is quite similar and pretty much in the same boat from what we're hearing about housing costs versus typical salaries.

[kyle19125]

Originally Posted by ScottFL78

Housing cost just needs to be a priority if you want to live here. Supply and demand. Florida is warm and people hate snow. Just my opinion.

Yes, except for the fact Orlando and Florida aren't interchangeable terms. There are other areas of Florida where housing costs are less with similar salaries and standard of living.