Condition of short term rental market these days? (Christmas: renter, mortgage)

[BrantM]

What are the average occupancy rate in the area these days. How is it holding up? I know last year I heard 30 weeks was considered great, but, now, with the economy the way it is, has that rate changed? What should the average STR owner expect?

[annerk]

These days 30 weeks would be almost unheard of.

I have about a dozen friends who own vacation rental homes in this area, and they are all saying that rentals are WAY down, and they have had to lower the prices. Several are at risk of losing the home as they counted on 50% occupancy and hacen't even had close to 25% this year. One hasn't had a tenant since Labor Day--her Thanksgiving renter bailed on teh last minute leaving her with a $500 deposit on a $2000 rental that she couldn't re-rent. Many still have availability for Christmas. One friend has ZERO bookings lined up on the house, a beautiful 4/3 in a desirable community.

On top of lower bookings, the cost of utilities, lawn service, and just about everything else has gone up.

Of the 12 or so friends with vacation rentals, the only one who isn't worried has no mortgage and has owned the home for about 8 years. She has had up to 90% occupancy in the past, and even with some fall out she's still looking at 50% this year. Almost all of her renters are repeats, and that has what has kept her going. She's the very rare exception.