Real Estate opinion... (Miami, Tampa, Orlando: for sale, real estate market, insurance)

[Rich_CD]

They say the real estate bubble has already busted (burst?).

I am "just now" starting to see signs of the effects of the bust. What say ye FL real estate experts. Will the half-built tumble weed towns show up soon or has the bottom been reached?


Rich

[JSnFla]

no where near the bottom....there ares so many unresolved issues down here...add a major hurricane this year and forget about it

[cmj_fla]

Unlike most of the country we are not only dealing with the burst in the bubble but a property insurance and tax "crisis." Until the legislators can get their acts together we have not seen the bottom.

[nrg2brn]

I saw on the news just yesterday that orlando enjoyed a 2.5% increase in real estate prices, while most of the rest of the state plummeted near 8%. I was surprised.

[Prichard]

Do you want an honest answer? If so, the only honest answer I have to offer is that I have no idea. You've asked the $10,000,000 question. If anyone really knew the answer to this do you think they would share that information with you?

Here's what I've heard:

"We're definitely at the bottom..."
"Not anywhere near the bottom, it's going to tank very soon..."
"Florida's real estate market with make modest gains over the next 2-3 yers, then it's going to tank because that's when people will really start dumping condos..."
"People will continue to flee from this state until they get taxes, insurance, hurricanes and fires under control..."

If you listen to what Hank Fishkind, a noted local economist, has to say, basically the cities that have major airports in Florida are just starting their long term growth phase. Orlando, Tampa, Miami, Daytona, Ft. Walton, etc. all have very bright futures. Counties and towns without a major airport will stay stagnent and lose ground in comparitave values. But, he's a Democrat, an optimist, and worst of all an economist - what the heck does he know?

[mcbadhair]

THe true to the realestate price increase, is the realestate association takes into counts what the price of the house is when it first goes on the market and does not take into account what price it sales for.

THe reason it increased 2.5% is because people are putting there houses up for sale at market or above market price accounting for an increase. THe other reason could be a few $ million mansions made price jump.

It is a total spin to make the market not look as bad as it really is. I would like to see the average price they sale for now.

[Magnulus]

Taxes, hurricanes, insurance, and crime will eventually put limits on the Orlando areas growth. IMO Orlando is no longer a very desireable place to live if you are looking for a new place. Those of us who have lived here a while call it home but it is getting to the breaking point.

[krwhite333]

I have been selling specifically condos since 1999 from Atlanta to Orlando. After the Y2K techo fallout in Atlanta followed by the aftermath of overbuilding condo supply for the Olympic Games we endured a wavering real estate market. I was ranked in the Wall Street Journal in 2006 as being #31 out of the top 50 agents by transaction side in the United States. I have an educated opinion on market trends. What I find amusing are the dooms day attitudes of Orlando media and frankly novice investors. Those involved in what I like to call "dump-truck realtor" lists where a friend of a friend told them that if they used a certain realtor they could buy at a great price and sell fast and for lots of money. Afterward they never see or hear from that realtor again. Real estate has rarely been a "hold it for a month and make thousands of dollars" environment unless you are a very talented home "flipper". Typically real estate is held for a minimum of 2 years to avoid capital gains or even longer for true investors. Ironically if you investigate the numbers of today's real estate sales compared to the sales in late 2003/early 2004 which was right before the huge boom I think you will see that we are still selling at the same or better pace. Those people basing their ideas on 3 years of a city's history of real estate sales should simply be told to hold their tongue for fear that they may embarrass themselves. Orlando surged and then regulated itself when it hit the ceiling. It's that simple. What I find most amusing is that for true investors like myself I enjoy these markets. I am buying property now when you get everything such as upgrades, assoc. fees, closing costs and bare bottom pricing often with additional price reductions as opposed to two years ago when the builders/developers/sellers were running the games and feeding us high prices and no incentives. Now...when would you rather buy real estate? In addition I do believe there are some pitfalls you must watch out for during this market- cash back incentives. Cash Back is mortgage fraud unless disclosed specifically on the HUD. If you are buying into a community or from a seller offering thousands of dollars cash back at closing then beware. In the case of those buying cash back I want remind you....if it took thousands of dollars to get you to write a contract....how much are you willing to pay someone or lower your price to sell it later?

Good luck Orlando...Don't sweat it too much...invest wisely.. do your research and keep making money! I am!

Some other great stats-
CNNMoney.com ranked Orlando #1 in job growth over next 3 years projecting the population to grow 150,000 by decade's end- Google it.

National Association of Realtors projected 3 year appreciation for top 20 metros and the average was 37%. Orlando was projected to appreciate over the next three years 72%.

The Burnham Institute's decision to move their BioMedical Firm to Orlando is creating a completely new growth avenue for Orlando. The BioMedical field is a 700 billion dollar industry. This move will bring over 300 scientists to Orlando over the next 10 yeas bringing with them a cluster of life science companies. This will be revolutionary in Orlando's image from tourist destination to life-long destination.

[Dalt10]

Well put. That is the best post I've read on here in a long time.

[Dalt10]

I think house prices are adjusting but if everybody thinks they are going to fall thru the floor you are mistaken. This city is going to keep growing. Wait for 5 years and see if you can afford a house here. People will have to live somewhere and they are not going to quit coming here. The population is not going to reverse.