Is it too early to speculate about the PA primary? (Philadelphia: live in, legal) - Pennsylvania - City-Data Forum

HappyRider · 03-07-2016, 09:41 PM

In the last few rounds primaries were pretty much over by the time they came to us. This cycle may be different. We might actually get to vote in the Trump/Cruz battle. How many delegates do we have? Winner take all? Any polls yet?

fisheye · 03-08-2016, 02:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyRider

In the last few rounds primaries were pretty much over by the time they came to us. This cycle may be different. We might actually get to vote in the Trump/Cruz battle. How many delegates do we have? Winner take all? Any polls yet?

Here is one link to one poll that shows data from fairly recently: 2016 Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary - Polls - HuffPost Pollster. However; there is plenty of time between now and the election and things can change. In that poll and another one Rubio is showing second place; but after his poor performance that could change and Cruz could pick up some of those votes? Maybe, by the time we vote, Rubio might even quit?

I like the fact that Trump has shaken up the establishment. They are running in fear of a Trump Presidency and are pouring millions into negative Trump adds. Until Trump opened up the topic; nobody wanted to talk about illegal immigration. I live approximately 2000 miles from the Mexican border and Spanish is the predominant language I hear (most of the time) when I go to the super market. I do live in a resort community that likes cheap labor. I also know that some of or Hispanics are legal immigrants and came from other countries. When I was young we only had token minority students in my classrooms. So I am talking about major changes in the last half century to my area.

I am not against immigration; we have always welcomed people from around the world. But Spain did not win the Revolutionary war; we should have all people welcomed equally and they must follow our laws. So I am glad this subject is one of the deciding factors in this election and I am glad that PA will play an important roll in selecting the next President.

By the way; what other races/seats will be up for grabs in our Primary? I know that we want change and that is what has driven all of the interest in the Republican candidates. This is the first time in our (myself and my wife) 69 years that we have ever registered as Republicans. We welcome a good shakeup!

SteelCityRising · 03-08-2016, 06:45 AM

Hillary has traditionally had a commanding lead over Bernie in the polls here; however, she was also whooping him in the polls for months in Michigan, too, and now she's barely edging him out in more recent polling. I predict roughly a 56/44 split (in Clinton's favor) in Michigan. I predict the same for PA, as the race will similarly tighten.

I think the media largely ignoring Bernie's campaign early on did him a disservice by not giving him more name recognition.

Hillary as the nominee may very well be the best thing that can happen for Republicans, as roughly half of my fellow Bernie supporters here in PA don't want to vote for her in November. If we all sit out, then Trump or Cruz win.

toobusytoday · 03-08-2016, 06:45 AM

Mod note - we can talk about the primary as it concerns the outcome of the votes in Pennsylvania, how we think a candidate will do in a certain area but this is NOT the place for chatter about policy or platforms. Posts will be deleted or edited when they delve into off topic areas. Here's where we can talk about policy and elections overall: http://www.city-data.com/forum/elections/

HappyRider · 03-08-2016, 07:18 AM

I agree. I don't want to make this thread about the advocacy of one candidate vs. another. There is plenty of that in other subforums. However, it is fair to ask if Pennsylvania is more in line with Trump or Cruz. Are there certain regions that tend to lean one way or the there and why? PA used to be a steel and coal state. Based on what they are telling us, that sort of demographics favors Trump. Is it true or has the state moved on.

SteelCityRising · 03-08-2016, 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyRider

I agree. I don't want to make this thread about the advocacy of one candidate vs. another. There is plenty of that in other subforums. However, it is fair to ask if Pennsylvania is more in line with Trump or Cruz. Are there certain regions that tend to lean one way or the there and why? PA used to be a steel and coal state. Based on what they are telling us, that sort of demographics favors Trump. Is it true or has the state moved on.

Everyone I know in my native Luzerne County that isn't going to vote for Hillary in November will be voting for Trump. Granted that's only one county, but it's also a populous one. I'd expect Hillary to do well in this state overall, though, because she's been winning over older voters by roughly an 80/20 split compared to Sanders, who has been winning over younger voters by roughly the same margin. We're an older state demographically.

I predict Clinton will win PA in April.
Trump will win PA in April.
Clinton will edge out Trump in the Fall by a roughly 55/45 split.

HappyRider · 03-08-2016, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Clinton will edge out Trump in the Fall by a roughly 55/45 split.

If that turns out to be true then Philadelphia and Allegheny counties must once again rule the day. The rural PA is the graveyard of once mighty industries. We have some real depressing looking towns. You would think Trump's message would resonate here. The flip side argument is that the generation that worked in those industries have passed on and their children have no longer any connection to the past.

eschaton · 03-09-2016, 08:52 AM

With how well Bernie did in Michigan last night, I think he stands a real shot of winning Pennsylvania in April - provided he is still in the race.

fisheye · 03-09-2016, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Everyone I know in my native Luzerne County that isn't going to vote for Hillary in November will be voting for Trump. Granted that's only one county, but it's also a populous one. I'd expect Hillary to do well in this state overall, though, because she's been winning over older voters by roughly an 80/20 split compared to Sanders, who has been winning over younger voters by roughly the same margin. We're an older state demographically.

I predict Clinton will win PA in April.
Trump will win PA in April.
Clinton will edge out Trump in the Fall by a roughly 55/45 split.

I don't think that Clinton will prevail in the fall against Trump. Of course it is really too early to predict because things will change over the course of time. But, if you look at the Primaries, the Democrats are not excited about their choices - in some states they are down 35% while the Republicans are turning out in record numbers.

Of course you can say with confidence that Hillary will get the nomination. It still might be too early to predict that Trump will get the nomination. But every win, like yesterday's, puts him that much closer to his target. One strong win in Florida would spell the end of Rubio and if Kasich does not win Ohio; that might be his last hurrah - who knows?

fisheye · 03-09-2016, 06:06 PM

But it is still too early to predict how this will all play out. Pennsylvania could play a big roll in choosing our next President.