PA population loss and retention - merged threads (Erie, York: 2015, credit)

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

No, gentrification begins in the blighted neighborhoods, not the middle-class ones. Since the late 1990s, the neighborhoods with large-scale gentrification include the Hill District, East Liberty, Lawrenceville, Larimer and the Central North Side. Of those neighborhoods, only Lawrenceville wasn't thoroughly blighted. And there are still plenty of middle-class neighborhoods that people aren't getting priced out of: Highland Park, Stanton Heights, Bloomfield, Regent Square, Greenfield, Brookline, Beechview, Brighton Heights, and more than likely a few others as well.

Mostly agree with everything you said in this entire reply, as usual. However, you've also been away from the city for a long time. I wouldn't call Highland Park affordable to Pittsburgh's version of the middle-class any longer. It's solidly upper-middle-class by Pittsburgh's standards now. Same with the city part and Edgewood part of Regent Square. Rents in Bloomfield have also begun to soar, and gentrification is occurring there now just as much as it has been happening in Lawrenceville and my own Polish Hill.

The other neighborhoods are indeed all comfortable for Pittsburgh's version of the middle-class. I say "Pittsburgh's version" because our typical middle-class resident here has a bit of a lower median income than the typical middle-class resident in most other large cities.

I would consider a household making $40,000-$75,000 in Pittsburgh to be "middle-class". Households making >$75,000/year in Pittsburgh would be "upper-middle-class". So if you're a middle-class couple making $70,000/year, you'd be looking to buy a house no more than $210,000, given the general rule of thumb that you should buy a house no more than thrice your annual household income. Finding a sub-$210,000 home in Highland Park and the city part of Regent Square is generally a non-starter unless it's a fixer these days. You can still find this in Bloomfield, but I think even those alley houses will be pushing that price in another 5-10 years, as they are now in Lawrenceville and Polish Hill.

I'm not a Debbie Downer about the city like bluecarebear is; however, I also don't think a lot of people on this sub-forum care in the least bit about the dwindling number of neighborhoods that will be affordable to the middle-class in the coming years if the city continues to rapidly gentrify. My partner and I are both transplants who love the city but have been unable to secure gainful employment here. He makes $13/hr. I make about the same after taxes as an independent contractor. We would have been solidly middle-class here back in 2010 when I moved here, but now I feel like we've slipped to lower-middle-class for Pittsburgh, and I'm unhappy about that since it's just because our employers don't value our hard work ethic.

[trackstar13]

Why is PA losing population? I have a few ideas, but I would love to see what everyone else thinks and the new census estimates related to the population of PA were pretty shocking to me.

"Though it remains the sixth most populous state, Pennsylvania dropped an estimated 7,677 residents from 2015 to 2016 - its first population loss in 31 years, according to an Inquirer analysis of census data."

"Before 2016, Pennsylvania was growing, but at a sluggish pace. Since 2010, the state grew by 0.6 percent - the eighth-slowest pace of any state, census figures show."

Historic population loss could weaken Pennsylvania's political clout

[BPP1999]

Not getting enough immigrants to offset the population losses occurring in huge swaths of this state. These population losses are related to de-industrialization and may have been made worse in the last several years by the quick fall of fracking.

[SteelCityRising]

I'm not too concerned. Our president-elect has promised to bring back Joe Paterno and the steel mills, which means PA is about to incur a Sunbelt-styled growth spurt over the next four years.

[g500]

It's a combination of factors. Not just weather because Mississippi lost population. Not just taxes because Wyoming (no state income tax for individuals) also lost population.

Maybe it is aging population, competition with the DC metro, NC, GA, FL, and TX, among others. Also, our biggest metro (roughly 1/3 of our population) Philadelphia has a pretty high cost of living. Some areas of PA are in a slight decline, like Johnstown (beautiful town) for example. We have a pretty bad drug epidemic, but not necessarily high crime as a state. Our cities seem miniature due to PA's obsession with having thousands of townships, so many of our cities are landlocked. The state budget impasse hurt us. Our highways are unable to handle traffic volumes, and many are surrounded by existing neighborhoods and businesses, making it difficult to widen/upgrade them. Mining and manufacturing has become less and less prevalent. As a swing state we dont necessarily attract anyone for our political atmosphere.

One would think PA would be attractive for retirees due to our income tax preferences for retirees income.

My theory - FL is sinking so in 50-100 years there will be some relocation/exodus. Also, next time a major hurricane rolls through the Southeast-states I just mentioned (hopefully not for awhile), some people might reevaluate living there for their safety/livelihood/property.

Anyway, love my state (PA) and its cities, and I am not worried the slightest. We are well diversified and just reaching maturity. I dont care if we change too much in reality. We have such a beautiful landscape I would hate to mar it with much more development. We have had a good run and we are still doing well for ourselves. All of our cities and counties are special in their own way. We have alot to offer. We have a lot to be proud of. I am sure we will be fine in the long-term.

Keep in mind we still have grown since 2010. Even if we decline the next three years at this rate we will still be up by 2020 and might pass Illinois by a hair since they are dropping at a faster rate (interesting thought, not mine).

[pman]

Originally Posted by g500

It's a combination of factors. Not just weather because Mississippi lost population. Not just taxes because Wyoming (no state income tax for individuals) also lost population.

Maybe it is aging population, competition with the DC metro, NC, GA, FL, and TX, among others. Also, our biggest metro (roughly 1/3 of our population) Philadelphia has a pretty high cost of living. Some areas of PA are in a slight decline, like Johnstown (beautiful town) for example. We have a pretty bad drug epidemic, but not necessarily high crime as a state. Our cities seem miniature due to PA's obsession with having thousands of townships, so many of our cities are landlocked. The state budget impasse hurt us. Our highways are unable to handle traffic volumes, and many are surrounded by existing neighborhoods and businesses, making it difficult to widen/upgrade them. Mining and manufacturing has become less and less prevalent. As a swing state we dont necessarily attract anyone for our political atmosphere.

One would think PA would be attractive for retirees due to our income tax preferences for retirees income.

My theory - FL is sinking so in 50-100 years there will be some relocation/exodus. Also, next time a major hurricane rolls through the Southeast-states I just mentioned (hopefully not for awhile), some people might reevaluate living there for their safety/livelihood/property.

Anyway, love my state (PA) and its cities, and I am not worried the slightest. We are well diversified and just reaching maturity. I dont care if we change too much in reality. We have such a beautiful landscape I would hate to mar it with much more development. We have had a good run and we are still doing well for ourselves. All of our cities and counties are special in their own way. We have alot to offer. We have a lot to be proud of. I am sure we will be fine in the long-term.

Keep in mind we still have grown since 2010. Even if we decline the next three years at this rate we will still be up by 2020 and might pass Illinois by a hair since they are dropping at a faster rate (interesting thought, not mine).

I also love my state but am frustrated to see your complacency. Johnstown might be attractive but the city is a jobless dump that has seen severe decline. The state is a leader in nothing. We continue to ring up debt due to Tom ridges insane pension Bill, our legislature can't stop it, they can't pass plcb privatization. We are sinking, wake up.

[g500]

Originally Posted by pman

I also love my state but am frustrated to see your complacency. Johnstown might be attractive but the city is a jobless dump that has seen severe decline. The state is a leader in nothing. We continue to ring up debt due to Tom ridges insane pension Bill, our legislature can't stop it, they can't pass plcb privatization. We are sinking, wake up.

Better to be honest than to have unrealistic expectations about an area, and potentially be disappointed later on. PA is an aging state with major outmigration. Our neighbors are all losing population, except for MD and DE, so maybe this is really a regional demographic shift. In fact, much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic is losing population except Mass and the two I mentioned. It is all an ebb and flow and will change in time as PA cost of living decreases and becomes more attractive. Also, dont put too much worry into a one-year estimate. The long-term trend may be different. We should be proud of our history, heritage, and cautiously optimistic about the future. Also we need the county by county estimates in March to see what is really going on (although I suspect our in-state trends will continue). Personally, I think we are pretty full, but could maybe see our cities grow by annexing adjacent townships to promote efficiency and cost savings.

PA may not be the leader, but is doing well in healthcare, higher education, telecom, energy, and agriculture.

Also, Johnstown is a beautiful town, just doing the best it can. Yes, it is relatively isolated and has been struggling. But, the people I have known from there were nice, honest, and down to earth folks.

We need to consolidate our municipalities, better address and prevent the drug epidemic, and clean up our inner cities (infrastructure, blight, crime).

Anyway. Would have to agree on your frustration with the pension and PLCB. Wolfe put an end to all new hires, so he is trying to stop the bleeding.

[PreservationPioneer]

I agree with the points about Johnstown. Certainly, it has been in severe decline for decades, and could use a big shot in the arm (especially downtown and some of the older residential neighborhoods), but what a fascinating place!

[bluecarebear]

Originally Posted by trackstar13

Why is PA losing population? I have a few ideas, but I would love to see what everyone else thinks and the new census estimates related to the population of PA were pretty shocking to me.

Few good jobs, poor salaries, high taxes, high COL, and bad weather. Older low quality housing doesn't help either.

[PacoMartin]

In 1920 for the first time in USA history, the urban population was larger than the rural population. The urban population has since grown five fold, but there has been very little change in the rural population.

Rural Year Urban population millions
59.5 2010 249.3
59.1 2000 222.4
61.7 1990 187.1
59.5 1980 167.1
53.6 1970 149.6
54.1 1960 125.3
54.5 1950 96.8
57.5 1940 74.7
54.0 1930 69.2
51.8 1920 54.3
50.2 1910 42.1
46.0 1900 30.2


While California is often depicted as stunning landscapes, most of the population is urban. Same for Texas.

Pennsylvania has a substantial rural population of about 3.5 million, most of which is white.