PA population loss and retention - merged threads (Pittsburgh, Erie: home, tax)

[eschaton]

Looking at PA data for 2015 to 2016:

Natural Increase: 7,844
International Migration: 34,678
Domestic Migration: -45,565

Compare this to the 2014 to 2015 data:

Natural Increase: 13,326
International Migration: 35,942
Domestic Migration: -41,607

Every element was down from 2014. Natural increase declined by 5,482. Births were down slightly (-1,059) but the increase in deaths (4,423) was greater. International migration was down slightly (-1,264). Domestic outmigration also played a larger role (-3,958).

Percentage wise, births decreased by 0.75%, deaths increased by 3.44%, international migration decreased by 3.52%, and domestic outmigration increased by 9.51%.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Looking at PA data for 2015 to 2016:

Natural Increase: 7,844
International Migration: 34,678
Domestic Migration: -45,565

Compare this to the 2014 to 2015 data:

Natural Increase: 13,326
International Migration: 35,942
Domestic Migration: -41,607

Every element was down from 2014. Natural increase declined by 5,482. Births were down slightly (-1,059) but the increase in deaths (4,423) was greater. International migration was down slightly (-1,264). Domestic outmigration also played a larger role (-3,958).

Percentage wise, births decreased by 0.75%, deaths increased by 3.44%, international migration decreased by 3.52%, and domestic outmigration increased by 9.51%.

Very interesting.

I think it's important to recognize that there's a lot to digest with these types of numbers, and they're not at all "cut and dried," either, meaning that even if we accept that Pennsylvania lost population over the past year (it is an estimate, after all), it would be alarmist to assume this is a long-term trend. Only the 2020 Census will bear the on-the-ground facts.

Overall, I do think that the major factor inhibiting Pennsylvania's growth is simply a lack of substantial natural increase (e.g., more births than deaths). In looking at natural increase in other states, Pennsylvania's is likely among the bottom of the US in terms of such a low net increase, particularly for such a large state. Of course, that's due to having a disproportionately older population, but it's a major "headwind" for growth nonetheless.

Other than that, every meaningfully large state in the Northeast and Midwest is losing population to domestic net migration (including several states at a much worse level than Pennsylvania). That's simply a function of being in cold climate (not wages, COL and taxes, which are much better in PA than many give credit for) and there's really nothing that can be done about that (although, as someone alluded to, this may interestingly revert with climate change).

International net migration is actually impressive for PA, in my view. Especially compared to states with supposedly more dynamic/growing economies, Pennsylvania ranks 7th in terms of raw numbers of attracting immigrants (even ahead of Illinois). Not too shabby, and perhaps can it can increase even more.

I brought this up on the General US forum, but the silver lining is that Pennsylvania's economy does continue to grow in terms of jobs and labor force: PA Unemployment Rate Declines to 5.7% in November.

That's heartening, because it shows that the working-age population in Pennsylvania is still doing okay (in fact, over the past year, the PA labor force grew faster than the US), and any decline in population does not appear to be economically-related.

Moving forward, I have most concern for the rural parts of Pennsylvania (and the US more generally) as growth and prosperity at this point are VERY heavily concentrated in larger metro areas. That's nothing new, but more attention needs to be paid to rural/small city decline now more than ever.

[eschaton]

As I posted in General U.S., Pennsylvania's decline due to domestic out migration wasn't too bad compared to elsewhere in the Northeast. It was actually the smallest decline posted in the Northeast last year.

DC: 0.45%
Delaware: 0.32%
New Hampshire: 0.16%
Maine: 0.16%
Pennsylvania: -0.36%
Rhode Island: -0.36%
Massachusetts: -0.38%
Maryland: -0.44%
Vermont: -0.46%
New Jersey: -0.75%
Connecticut: -0.83%
New York: -0.97%

Thus I would agree that domestic out-migration is unlikely to be the primary reason. That said, the increase this year could have been energy related - the fracking market has tanked, and a lot of the transplants from TX/OK who came here to drill have gone back home now.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by eschaton

As I posted in General U.S., Pennsylvania's decline due to domestic out migration wasn't too bad compared to elsewhere in the Northeast. It was actually the smallest decline posted in the Northeast last year.

DC: 0.45%
Delaware: 0.32%
New Hampshire: 0.16%
Maine: 0.16%
Pennsylvania: -0.36%
Rhode Island: -0.36%
Massachusetts: -0.38%
Maryland: -0.44%
Vermont: -0.46%
New Jersey: -0.75%
Connecticut: -0.83%
New York: -0.97%

Thus I would agree that domestic out-migration is unlikely to be the primary reason. That said, the increase this year could have been energy related - the fracking market has tanked, and a lot of the transplants from TX/OK who came here to drill have gone back home now.

I know it would be time-consuming, but it would be interesting to see the same breakdown for PA's counties.

[RightonWalnut]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

I know it would be time-consuming, but it would be interesting to see the same breakdown for PA's counties.

All US county population estimates will be released in March I believe.

[trackstar13]

Great thoughts so far and thanks to the posters who have added some additional data to further the discussion. I definitely think that domestic migration, taxes, and the aging population are having a major influence on the PA population numbers. As someone who lives in one of the cities in PA with a higher property and school tax burden, I do not mind paying my fair share, but homeowners can't pay for everything and something needs to be done to attract companies to the smaller and medium size cities in PA. In Erie for example, there is a significant amount of vacant property that could be re-purposed and used for a variety of small and medium size businesses.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by Duderino

Overall, I do think that the major factor inhibiting Pennsylvania's growth is simply a lack of substantial natural increase (e.g., more births than deaths). In looking at natural increase in other states, Pennsylvania's is likely among the bottom of the US in terms of such a low net increase, particularly for such a large state. Of course, that's due to having a disproportionately older population, but it's a major "headwind" for growth nonetheless.

"Natural" population change is the primary inhibitor in Pennsylvania. Here's how Pennsylvania's natural increase compares to every other state with at least 8,000,000 population (2015-2016):


+228,998 - California
+211,719 - Texas
+75,794 - New York
+49,337 - Georgia
+47,198 - Illinois
+35,808 - Virginia
+31,057 - North Carolina
+27,404 - New Jersey
+22,074 - Ohio
+21,308 - Florida
+19,084 - Michigan
+7,844 - Pennsylvania


Among all states, Pennsylvania ranked 33rd in natural increase, below Idaho (+10,296) and above New Mexico (+7,692). And here's how Pennsylvania's ratio of births to deaths compares:


2.10 - Texas
1.84 - California
1.61 - Georgia
1.54 - Virginia
1.47 - New York
1.44 - Illinois
1.37 - New Jersey
1.35 - North Carolina
1.20 - Michigan
1.19 - Ohio
1.11 - Florida
1.06 - Pennsylvania


Not only does Pennsylvania have the lowest ratio of all the most populous states states by far, but only Maine (0.91) and West Virginia (0.88) have lower ratios among all states. Natural population change will continue to be the biggest drag on Pennsylvania's population growth until the share of elderly population is more in line with the United States at large.

[bradjl2009]

How do states like Ohio and Michigan have higher natural population increase than us?

[g500]

Originally Posted by RightonWalnut

All US county population estimates will be released in March I believe.

what takes so long, just wondering?

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

How do states like Ohio and Michigan have higher natural population increase than us?

Younger population and a higher birth rate. That's really all there is to it.