PA population loss and retention - merged threads (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh: houses, schools)

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by aewan68

"From 1991 to 2014, Pennsylvania ranked a dismal 45th in job growth, 47th in personal income growth, and 48th in population growth."

Commonwealth Foundation - How Does Pennsylvania's Tax Burden Compare?

The Commonwealth Foundation has a very clear economically conservative agenda. Their portrayal of the state economy is always going be biased to paint their worldview.

Yes, job growth and population in PA is on the slower side, but that's because Pennsylvania has different demographics (read older and whiter) than the rest of the US. When job growth is almost entirely a function of population growth, then it shouldn't come as a surprise that a state with a particularly large senior population isn't growing its economy like gangbusters. It's an issue that essentially the entire Northeast and Midwest is grappling with. The only exceptions are areas with high amounts of immigration.

It's disconcerting that many folks don't acknowledge basic factors or other structural issues that might lead to a slower economy before obsessing over "TAXES!!!" (which is discussed ad nauseam and is only ONE of MANY factors in business decisions. Also, please look to the State of Kansas as a prime example of a disaster scenario when you essentially completely cut all corporate taxes--it's not pretty there right now).

Also, not sure where Commonwealth is getting their income growth numbers. Income is actually one area in which PA is not doing too shabbily over the past several years; in fact, last year Census data shows that PA median household income (not talking about the 1% only, here) grew at a rate pretty significantly above the US average: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/C...acsbr15-02.pdf

Originally Posted by aewan68

Gas taxes are way too high as well.

You can thank the fact that essentially all infrastructure in this country was constructed without any long-term plan for maintenance. Pennsylvania, being one of the oldest and most "bridged" states is obviously going to be disproportionately affected. Good infrastructure costs money, and we're all responsible to pay for it. Blame legislators 30 or 40 years ago for not being proactive--you can only kick the can down the road for so long.

Furthermore, what Pennsylvania is addressing now every other state will have to do in the not-so-distant future. And in a place like PA that doesn't have NEARLY the amount of massive highways as places in the Sun Belt, I would not want to be the position of budgeting for the inevitable overhaul of highways, which will need an endless infusion of tax dollars in 20-30 years just to be sustained.

[gomezm007]

If you actually look at the numbers, PA is actually growing (albeit slowly) and the recent figures seems to have PA replace Illinois as the 5th most populated state (since Illinois is growing slower). There are definitely areas that are loosing people (such as the Northwest/Northcentral area; where I grew up south of Erie), but eastern PA is growing with transplants from NY/NJ (such as Pike County) as well as immigrants from Latin America and Asia (Philly metro area, Lancaster, York, etc.).

[gomezm007]

I've seen this post in other areas and I find it crazy. Yes, it is true that Pittsburgh and western PA is loosing population (though on a much slower scale than say 20 years ago), but the Philadelphia area is growing in population (including the city of Philly which is still #5 in the United States). Most of the population growth in the other cities (such as Texas or the like) is the result of growing metropolitan areas as well as annexation of cities (something that does not happen in PA). Indeed, the majority of eastern PA is growing in population, thanks to influxes of transplanted people from NJ and NY as well as immigration from Latin America, Asia and Africa (maybe not large amounts in percentages, but definitely in whole numbers).

[Craziaskowboi]

My hypothesis is that this annual estimate is a blip due to a massive hemorrhage of energy and related manufacturing jobs since the summer of 2015.

[RightonWalnut]

County population estimates will be released on Thursday.

[thedirtypirate]

News wrap up: PA lost people again. This time we had more births than deaths, but nearly 100k people moved out of the state.

Falling population in Beaver, Lawrence, Allegheny counties follows state decline | Local News | timesonline.com

Erie County's population shrinks for fourth straight year - News - GoErie.com - Erie, PA

Here's why Miami and Phoenix are about to surpass Philly's population

[cpomp]

Though of course I want the state to grow, I don't understand the obsession with which city has more people. Miami and Phoenix can surpass Philadelphia for all I care, that doesn't make them better cities. As long as Philadelphia sustains growth and hopefully picks up in the coming years I am happy.


Plus Phoenix is 5 times the land area, the article forgot to mention that...

[eschaton]

A quick map I did of the 2015-2016 population change by county. Each color represents increments of 0.25%.

Basically, South-Central PA and State College are doing pretty well, the Philly area is stagnant, and the rest of the state is falling off a cliff.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by eschaton

A quick map I did of the 2015-2016 population change by county. Each color represents increments of 0.25%.

Basically, South-Central PA and State College are doing pretty well, the Philly area is stagnant, and the rest of the state is falling off a cliff.

Interesting map. I think your nutshell explanation is generally true, although I think it's important to note that, particularly looking at the 2010-2016 combined estimate, the "core" Southeastern PA counties of Philadelphia, Bucks, Delaware, Chester and Montgomery collectively added approximately 85,000 people (https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...prodType=table). That's certainly nothing to sneeze at.

I'd also add that it seems that job growth may be picking up a bit in PA based on the latest labor market numbers, and it certainly has in the Philly area (for example, as of January 2017, Pennsylvania had year-over-year seasonally-adjusted job growth of 70,000 jobs, yet it supposedly as reported recently lost approximately 8,000 people in the past year).

So it stands to reason that there is definitely a margin of error in these population estimate numbers, or if not they certainly are lagging the "on the ground" economic conditions.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by Duderino

Interesting map. I think your nutshell explanation is generally true, although I think it's important to note that, particularly looking at the 2010-2016 combined estimate, the "core" Southeastern PA counties of Philadelphia, Bucks, Delaware, Chester and Montgomery collectively added approximately 85,000 people (https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...prodType=table). That's certainly nothing to sneeze at.

I'd also add that it seems that job growth may be picking up a bit in PA based on the latest labor market numbers, and it certainly has in the Philly area (for example, as of January 2017, Pennsylvania had year-over-year seasonally-adjusted job growth of 70,000 jobs, yet it supposedly as reported recently lost approximately 8,000 people in the past year).

So it stands to reason that there is definitely a margin of error in these population estimate numbers, or if not they certainly are lagging the "on the ground" economic conditions.

Mining and logging employment (read: energy employment) has imploded in Pennsylvania since 2015:



This implosion has also dragged down manufacturing employment to a degree:



Add in a natural increase (births minus deaths) that's shockingly low for such a heavily-populated state, and you get a nice blip in the signal. Going forward, Pennsylvania will be more susceptible to booms and busts in the global energy market than before, which will reflect itself in the annual estimates, especially once the ongoing elderly die-off and a relative lack of procreation are factored in.