Will Trump take Pennsylvania? (Philadelphia, York: house, closing, living in)

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by North Beach Person

Let's recap.
GW Bush Harvard MBA
J McCain US Naval Academy
M Romney combined JD and MBA Harvard
D Trump Wharton School of Business


And once again, which party is the party of high school dropouts (hint: it begins with the letter D).

What does this have to do with Duderino's factual assertion that college educated voters are trending towards the Democratic Party? It's a well-known fact that minority and immigrant voters--who overall have lower levels of educational attainment--tend to vote Democrat.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by North Beach Person

Let's recap.
GW Bush Harvard MBA
J McCain US Naval Academy
M Romney combined JD and MBA Harvard
D Trump Wharton School of Business


And once again, which party is the party of high school dropouts (hint: it begins with the letter D).

And democratic candidates have education credentials equally as good so what's the point? Also, which party gets the most votes in the South and Appalachia? Trump will not win amongst young college educated people like Romney and McCain didn't.

[toobusytoday]

Let's keep this conversation Pennsylvania centered please.

[Dequindre]

This whole email/Weiner/Comey thing may end up helping Toomey. His campaign is lumping Clinton and McGinty together, and that's the last thing McGinty needs this late in the game. While Trump may be unacceptable to more moderate voters, Toomey isn't.

[Clark Park]

Originally Posted by Dequindre

This whole email/Weiner/Comey thing may end up helping Toomey. His campaign is lumping Clinton and McGinty together, and that's the last thing McGinty needs this late in the game. While Trump may be unacceptable to more moderate voters, Toomey isn't.

You may have point.

I checked with RealClearPolitics which has McGinty withy a 2% - 3% lead. That is a statistical dead heat. I think the candidate with the best ground game will win this race.

[Dequindre]

Originally Posted by Clark Park

You may have point.

I checked with RealClearPolitics which has McGinty withy a 2% - 3% lead. That is a statistical dead heat. I think the candidate with the best ground game will win this race.

That's Trump's big problem here: He has no ground game (or in any swing states). He relies on media appearances. That worked in the primaries, but it probably won't be a successful way to campaign in the general election.

[HappyRider]

It seems to me we should be able to make some fairly accurate predictions from the 2012 data.

Obama- 2,990,274
Romney- 2,680,434
Difference-309, 840

My contention is increased Republican turn out can cover the deficit. In the 2016 PA primary, the Republican turn out was 10% higher than the Democrats. There is no reason to doubt the same won't be true in the general. That is 300,000 votes (About 3 million registered Rs). Assuming everything stays static on the Dem side, Trump is only short 9000 votes.

[Dequindre]

What remains to be seen is how Trump is doing in the more depressed urban areas. He made an attempt to reach out to those people, many of which are Democrats, but it's hard to tell if they were responsive. In places like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, that could be significant.

[toobusytoday]

Originally Posted by HappyRider

It seems to me we should be able to make some fairly accurate predictions from the 2012 data.

Obama- 2,990,274
Romney- 2,680,434
Difference-309, 840

My contention is increased Republican turn out can cover the deficit. In the 2016 PA primary, the Republican turn out was 10% higher than the Democrats. There is no reason to doubt the same won't be true in the general. That is 300,000 votes (About 3 million registered Rs). Assuming everything stays static on the Dem side, Trump is only short 9000 votes.

But the general rule is that Democrats tend to vote in much higher numbers in general elections than primaries. 538 has Clinton winning PA by a pretty wide margin: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/.../pennsylvania/

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by HappyRider

It seems to me we should be able to make some fairly accurate predictions from the 2012 data.

Obama- 2,990,274
Romney- 2,680,434
Difference-309, 840

My contention is increased Republican turn out can cover the deficit. In the 2016 PA primary, the Republican turn out was 10% higher than the Democrats. There is no reason to doubt the same won't be true in the general. That is 300,000 votes (About 3 million registered Rs). Assuming everything stays static on the Dem side, Trump is only short 9000 votes.

That's a very inaccurate way of trying to predict turnout. First of all, by the time the Primary reached Pennsylvania, Hillary was all-but-certain to be the Democratic nominee and voters did not feel as compelled to participate. This contrasts with the Republicans, who were much more divided regarding Trump and apt to come out to support their candidate of choice.

In the general election, especially when the choices could not be more dramatically different, turnout is much more reflective of the general registered voter population. And in Pennsylvania, this will very likely mean about an 8%-10% participation edge for Democrats compared to Republicans.