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From my examination of the county-by-county vote totals in PA, it seems the reason the state was narrowly won by Trump (less than 1% once all the votes were counted) was because turnout was much higher in solidly Republican counties, but lower in solidly Democratic counties. The areas which flipped from Obama to Trump (mostly Erie and the Wyoming Valley) weren't enough to swing the state.
Of course, it might be that something about Trump pushed people who were Democrats in heavily Republican counties to flip. But it seems more likely Trump just turned out "unlikely voters" who were R leaning in the T, while Clinton was just a miserable failure of a candidate.
Hillary Clinton won less total votes from Philadelphia and its suburbs than Obama did. She won 1,232,268 from the 5 counties in total, which gave her a lead of 580,033 votes over Donald Trump in the Philadelphia MSA. In 2012, Obama won 1,286,823 votes from Philadelphia and its collar counties, giving him a 640,654 vote lead over Romney.
I find that very surprising. Meanwhile Allegheny County actually went a little more blue as Hillary got 11,000 votes more than Obama and Trump got 12,000 fewer votes than Romney. Trump got the worst republican percentage of the vote in Allegheny County in 20 years. I believe the surrounding counties went redder though, furthering the divide between changing and somewhat growing Allegheny County as the surrounding Western PA counties continue to lag behind and decline.
I did read some of her aides are pushing her to contest the PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin results though. I feel like they should have done that a week or more ago though instead of waiting until a few days before the deadlines.
I find that very surprising. Meanwhile Allegheny County actually went a little more blue as Hillary got 11,000 votes more than Obama and Trump got 12,000 fewer votes than Romney. Trump got the worst republican percentage of the vote in Allegheny County in 20 years. I believe the surrounding counties went redder though, furthering the divide between changing and somewhat growing Allegheny County as the surrounding Western PA counties continue to lag behind and decline.
I posted this map in the Pittsburgh forum.
It looks very similar to the precinct maps I saw from Allegheny County back in 2008 - more so than 2012 because Trump seems to have done worst in the first-ring suburbs than Romney did. For all of Trump's supposed strength with working-class whites, it looks to me like he did a little worse with them in Allegheny County than McCain did in 2008.
The biggest shifts are that all of Penn Hills, and most of Monroeville, were solidly Democratic. I think this has more to do with the growing suburban black population in the East Hills than anything else however.
It looks very similar to the precinct maps I saw from Allegheny County back in 2008 - more so than 2012 because Trump seems to have done worst in the first-ring suburbs than Romney did. For all of Trump's supposed strength with working-class whites, it looks to me like he did a little worse with them in Allegheny County than McCain did in 2008.
The biggest shifts are that all of Penn Hills, and most of Monroeville, were solidly Democratic. I think this has more to do with the growing suburban black population in the East Hills than anything else however.
Maybe the county is also more white collar now than many think? I really was expecting her to do worse in than Obama did in 2012 in the county and was pleasantly surprised with our high turnout in Allegheny County which went against what happened in many reliably blue counties. As was shown though, many republican counties in the state has strong turnout to make up for anything that happened here though.
Hillary Clinton won less total votes from Philadelphia and its suburbs than Obama did. She won 1,232,268 from the 5 counties in total, which gave her a lead of 580,033 votes over Donald Trump in the Philadelphia MSA. In 2012, Obama won 1,286,823 votes from Philadelphia and its collar counties, giving him a 640,654 vote lead over Romney.
I had the number reversed. Clinton received 1,286,823 votes from Philadelphia and its collar counties, which was 55,063 more votes than Obama received in 2012. Now let's look at the margins for each of the five counties. In parentheses is Obama's margin in each county in 2012.
Philadelphia
Clinton - 560,542
Trump - 105,418 Net: 455,124 (465,184)
Montgomery
Clinton - 251,063
Trump - 160,803 Net: 90,620 (57,658)
Bucks
Clinton - 165,861
Trump - 163,873 Net: 1,988 (3,722)
Delaware
Clinton - 169,169
Trump - 106,559 Net: 62,610 (59,535)
Chester
Clinton - 140,188
Trump - 115,582 Net: 24,606 (-1,048)
Clinton Net Vote (634,948) - Obama Net Vote (585,051) = +49,897
So Clinton cleared roughly 50,000 more net votes out of the Philadelphia region than Obama did four years ago.
From my examination of the county-by-county vote totals in PA, it seems the reason the state was narrowly won by Trump (less than 1% once all the votes were counted) was because turnout was much higher in solidly Republican counties, but lower in solidly Democratic counties. The areas which flipped from Obama to Trump (mostly Erie and the Wyoming Valley) weren't enough to swing the state.
Turnout wasn't down in the traditional Democratic strongholds. Turnout was actually up in the Philadelphia area with Clinton winning by larger margins than Obama did in 2012. The really big difference this year was that Clinton was destroyed in virtually every other part of the state.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton
Of course, it might be that something about Trump pushed people who were Democrats in heavily Republican counties to flip. But it seems more likely Trump just turned out "unlikely voters" who were R leaning in the T, while Clinton was just a miserable failure of a candidate.
It seems to be a combination of both. Luzerne County witnessed a 25 point swing. That's not so much a product of turnout as it is people voting for Trump who had voted for Obama four years ago.
I'd still disagree that Delaware isn't entirely northeastern, honestly. Western Maryland isn't that different from the NY/PA twin tiers and I don't think Appalachia is as monolithic as people make it out to be.
It's not the topic of this thread but I stand pretty hard in favor of calling MD and DE northern states, at the very least in modern times. Having spent an enormous portion of my life in both upstate NY/northern PA and southern rural Louisiana right across from Mississippi, I can say with certainty that Maryland and Delaware are a lot more akin to NY and PA over Louisiana/Mississippi.
Then again, I don't know how you're defining northeastern. Coastal megalopolis only or the whole bag mountains and all? It's a lot more country up here than people want to accept. People are especially misinformed about NY state in terms of culture and politics, having a tendency to lump it all into NYC's characteristics and even sometimes confusing it to be part of New England.
The Northeast includes its rural as well as its urban precincts: eastern Connecticut, most of upstate New York between Albany and Buffalo as well as above I-84, western Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire above Manchester, Vermont, western Rhode Island. By that metric, yes, I'd toss all of Delaware into the mix, as well as Maryland by virtue of geography. But much like western Pennsylvania doesn't feel like the same state as eastern Pennsylvania, the Eastern Shore still seems like a world somewhat apart.
And the cultural border between "North" and "South" seems to have drifted into Virginia, along a line running east-west through Fredericksburg or a little south of it.
I find it hard to confuse anything outside New England for New England; it's geographically and culturally as distinct from the rest of the country as the South is. However: in terms of physical appearance and settlement, eastern Long Island bears a striking resemblance to what you find on the other side of Long Island Sound from it.
I find it fairly easy to draw parallels between my native Missouri and my adopted Pennsylvania. Missouri is actually the nation in microcosm, just about; the only thing it lacks is the ecotopian Northwest sensibility. You find just about everything else within its borders, including a recapitulation of the Civil War, which tore the state in two, literally. And just as I'd put all of Pennsylvania in the Northeast geographically but not culturally, I'd put all of Missouri in the Midwest geographically but not culturally - southeast Missouri is definitely an offshoot of the Deep South.
Philadelphia and its metro fit culturally with New Jersey. The rest of PA falls culturally in line with WV and OH. Pittsburgh is 20 miles as the crow flies from West Virginia and Ohio. Erie is about the same from Ohio and the far reaches of western upstate New York on the other side.
Allegheny County, PA is not that liberal. democrat prez candidates usually end up with the mid to high 50s in vote share. Franklin and Cuyahoga counties in Ohio are just as urban nearly the same population size and much more liberal. Democrats for prez get well over 60 percent vote share in those Ohio counties.
I am not suprised western and central pa voted for trump. I am suprised he was able to squeeze enough numbers to overcome vote totals in philly to win the state. Pa has more in common overall with Wv, oh, Michigan and Wisconsin than a New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, New York or the New England states.
The rust belt elected trump. He switched a lot of voters in those states from obama to trump and crushed Hillary in areas where obama kept it much closer. These states voted for trump because they are demographically and culturally similar. Trumps message resonated over the economy and people in these small dying towns were tired of hearing about the liberal elites being PC sharing bathroomsand being called racist if they disagree. Tired of having social gripes shoved down their throats. That coupled with job losses and poor economy in these areas is why you have president elect trump
Location: Appalachian New York, Formerly Louisiana
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott_Holiday
Philadelphia and its metro fit culturally with New Jersey. The rest of PA falls culturally in line with WV and OH. Pittsburgh is 20 miles as the crow flies from West Virginia and Ohio. Erie is about the same from Ohio and the far reaches of western upstate New York on the other side.
Allegheny County, PA is not that liberal. democrat prez candidates usually end up with the mid to high 50s in vote share. Franklin and Cuyahoga counties in Ohio are just as urban nearly the same population size and much more liberal. Democrats for prez get well over 60 percent vote share in those Ohio counties.
I am not suprised western and central pa voted for trump. I am suprised he was able to squeeze enough numbers to overcome vote totals in philly to win the state. Pa has more in common overall with Wv, oh, Michigan and Wisconsin than a New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, New York or the New England states.
The rust belt elected trump. He switched a lot of voters in those states from obama to trump and crushed Hillary in areas where obama kept it much closer. These states voted for trump because they are demographically and culturally similar. Trumps message resonated over the economy and people in these small dying towns were tired of hearing about the liberal elites being PC sharing bathroomsand being called racist if they disagree. Tired of having social gripes shoved down their throats. That coupled with job losses and poor economy in these areas is why you have president elect trump
NY and PA are very similar. Even NY isn't all that similar to NJ or New England save for where they border.
I'm not really sure why people don't want to admit this?
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
23,813 posts, read 34,657,307 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott_Holiday
Philadelphia and its metro fit culturally with New Jersey. The rest of PA falls culturally in line with WV and OH. Pittsburgh is 20 miles as the crow flies from West Virginia and Ohio. Erie is about the same from Ohio and the far reaches of western upstate New York on the other side.
Allegheny County, PA is not that liberal. democrat prez candidates usually end up with the mid to high 50s in vote share. Franklin and Cuyahoga counties in Ohio are just as urban nearly the same population size and much more liberal. Democrats for prez get well over 60 percent vote share in those Ohio counties.
I am not suprised western and central pa voted for trump. I am suprised he was able to squeeze enough numbers to overcome vote totals in philly to win the state. Pa has more in common overall with Wv, oh, Michigan and Wisconsin than a New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, New York or the New England states.
The rust belt elected trump. He switched a lot of voters in those states from obama to trump and crushed Hillary in areas where obama kept it much closer. These states voted for trump because they are demographically and culturally similar. Trumps message resonated over the economy and people in these small dying towns were tired of hearing about the liberal elites being PC sharing bathroomsand being called racist if they disagree. Tired of having social gripes shoved down their throats. That coupled with job losses and poor economy in these areas is why you have president elect trump
Philadelphia & SE PA are historically similar to South Jersey, not NJ as a whole.
As a state, PA is similar to NC. Look at the results.
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Clinton received 1,286,823 votes from Philadelphia and its collar counties, which was 55,063 more votes than Obama received in 2012. Now let's look at the margins for each of the five counties. In parentheses is Obama's margin in each county in 2012.
