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All good advice for the coastal elites who must make their way to family gatherings in Ohio, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, the Rust Belt states that propelled Trump to victory.
Philadelphia & SE PA are historically similar to South Jersey, not NJ as a whole.
As a state, PA is similar to NC. Look at the results.
Western and central pa have way more in common with Ohio / West Virginia and the rust belt states that flipped for Trump. I would also throw in upstate New York to that mix as well. PA, outside of the philly area is a mix of midwestern and Appalachian culture, ideals and voting patterns. Look at the results. Ashtabula County Ohio and Erie county pa. Look who won in 2012 compared to 2016.
North Carolina is a southern farming state that is growing and turning purple with the boutique metros of Charlotte, Greensboro and Raleigh booming in growth. The only connection NC has with pa is taking notable PA HQ such as Mack trucks, old usairways hub from Pittsburgh and light manufacturing from beaver county pa. Otherwise the states are headed in opposite directions from each other. And have little in common
I could see the Democratic Party abandoning Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pa for future elections. The future of the party is the high growth cities and states. North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and maybe Texas will be where the Democratic Party will win future elections for the presidency. Plus those states will likely gain electoral votes while the rust belt probably loses a half dozen or so combined after the 2020 census
Western and central pa have way more in common with Ohio / West Virginia and the rust belt states that flipped for Trump. I would also throw in upstate New York to that mix as well. PA, outside of the philly area is a mix of midwestern and Appalachian culture, ideals and voting patterns. Look at the results. Ashtabula County Ohio and Erie county pa. Look who won in 2012 compared to 2016.
North Carolina is a southern farming state that is growing and turning purple with the boutique metros of Charlotte, Greensboro and Raleigh booming in growth. The only connection NC has with pa is taking notable PA HQ such as Mack trucks, old usairways hub from Pittsburgh and light manufacturing from beaver county pa. Otherwise the states are headed in opposite directions from each other. And have little in common
I could see the Democratic Party abandoning Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pa for future elections. The future of the party is the high growth cities and states. North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and maybe Texas will be where the Democratic Party will win future elections for the presidency. Plus those states will likely gain electoral votes while the rust belt probably loses a half dozen or so combined after the 2020 census
(emphasis added)
Okay, folks, what do we want to make of this?
Most of the counties in question - and all of these states - voted for Obama both times, even if the margins were narrower in some of them in 2012.
What did he know, or possess, that Clinton didn't?
His approval ratings were on the rise as the election approached. None of this was translatable to Clinton - and many of the people in the counties that voted for him enthusiastically (e.g., Philadelphia) decided it wasn't worth it to come out to vote for her this time. And Trump managed to do better than Romney in many African-American divisions in the city, including some of those "no one voted for Romney" divisions from 2012.
Besides arguing (once again, though for the first time here) that race and racism play(ed) less of a role in this shift than many say it did, I'm also arguing that it's a mistake for the Democrats to rely exclusively on the rapidly-growing urban areas (which is where they'll harvest the votes in those states) going forward. Your point about electoral vote shifts - which will make themselves felt in the 2024 election, not the next one - is accurate, but many of the Northern states in question will retain influence and political clout, and it's not like Iowa is a heavyweight in any case, but look how much attention people pay to it.
The people in Pennsylvania (and West Virginia, and Ohio, and...) who cast their votes for Trump are actually saying the same thing Black Lives Matter protesters are: "Listen to us. Don't tell us what, or how, to think about our lives and what affects them. We're living it, and our opinions and views deserve respect."
It doesn't matter whether their views bear any resemblance to reality or not. They were tired of being ignored or talked down to. And they took it out on the people they saw as ignoring and talking down to them.
All good advice for the coastal elites who must make their way to family gatherings in Ohio, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, the Rust Belt states that propelled Trump to victory.
And what was that advice?
And how was your Thanksgiving?
And one of the central pivot points of this thread is that Pennsylvania is and isn't one of those Rust Belt states. To qualify your last sentence, it depends on where in Pennsylvania you're headed. East (south, as it curves on its path through the state) of the Susquehanna, the terrain and the culture both change somewhat, and they change dramatically once you pass Lancaster headed east or travel through the Lehigh Tunnel headed south. That tiny corner of the state, however, holds some 40 percent of its residents.
Most of the counties in question - and all of these states - voted for Obama both times, even if the margins were narrower in some of them in 2012.
What did he know, or possess, that Clinton didn't?
His approval ratings were on the rise as the election approached. None of this was translatable to Clinton - and many of the people in the counties that voted for him enthusiastically (e.g., Philadelphia) decided it wasn't worth it to come out to vote for her this time. And Trump managed to do better than Romney in many African-American divisions in the city, including some of those "no one voted for Romney" divisions from 2012.
Besides arguing (once again, though for the first time here) that race and racism play(ed) less of a role in this shift than many say it did, I'm also arguing that it's a mistake for the Democrats to rely exclusively on the rapidly-growing urban areas (which is where they'll harvest the votes in those states) going forward. Your point about electoral vote shifts - which will make themselves felt in the 2024 election, not the next one - is accurate, but many of the Northern states in question will retain influence and political clout, and it's not like Iowa is a heavyweight in any case, but look how much attention people pay to it.
The people in Pennsylvania (and West Virginia, and Ohio, and...) who cast their votes for Trump are actually saying the same thing Black Lives Matter protesters are: "Listen to us. Don't tell us what, or how, to think about our lives and what affects them. We're living it, and our opinions and views deserve respect."
It doesn't matter whether their views bear any resemblance to reality or not. They were tired of being ignored or talked down to. And they took it out on the people they saw as ignoring and talking down to them.
And that is why most of pa is more connected to the Midwest and Appalachia. In 2020 West Virginia Ohio pa Wisconsin and Michigan will lose electoral votes probably a half dozen to a dozen or so combined. The majority of the people in this country voted for Clinton, however the electoral college allows smaller states or those on the decline to have their voice heard. I do not agree with it, but it is a law in our great nation.
With that said yeah I can see that as well as the economic message resonating, but then again what you speak of can only be corrected if if transition to more of a social type economy than a capitalism one currently in place. These upset rust belt residents are blaming others for their misfortune instead of channeling energy into staring their own businesses or refining job skills to become marketable in the 21st century economy.
Neither Trump nor Clinton can change it. We are a global economy and those rust belt states will look worse and have high unemployment in 4 years as well
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
23,814 posts, read 34,688,469 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott_Holiday
Western and central pa have way more in common with Ohio / West Virginia and the rust belt states that flipped for Trump. I would also throw in upstate New York to that mix as well. PA, outside of the philly area is a mix of midwestern and Appalachian culture, ideals and voting patterns. Look at the results. Ashtabula County Ohio and Erie county pa. Look who won in 2012 compared to 2016.
North Carolina is a southern farming state that is growing and turning purple with the boutique metros of Charlotte, Greensboro and Raleigh booming in growth. The only connection NC has with pa is taking notable PA HQ such as Mack trucks, old usairways hub from Pittsburgh and light manufacturing from beaver county pa. Otherwise the states are headed in opposite directions from each other. And have little in common
I could see the Democratic Party abandoning Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pa for future elections. The future of the party is the high growth cities and states. North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and maybe Texas will be where the Democratic Party will win future elections for the presidency. Plus those states will likely gain electoral votes while the rust belt probably loses a half dozen or so combined after the 2020 census
Both states have urban islands with lots of rural areas & Appalachian culture thrown into the mix. Both states have state legislatures with rural vs urban battles played out frequently. if you know the immigration patterns from the 18th & 19th centuries, there are plenty of ties to each other & both have ties to the Midwest. In the mid 20th century NC got mill workers from Philadelphia & furniture workers from Grand Rapids.
Statewide, Pennsylvania has lots of similarities to North Carolina, western Pennsylvania has lots of similarities to the Midwest & WV.
Both states have urban islands with lots of rural areas & Appalachian culture thrown into the mix. Both states have state legislatures with rural vs urban battles played out frequently. if you know the immigration patterns from the 18th & 19th centuries, there are plenty of ties to each other & both have ties to the Midwest. In the mid 20th century NC got mill workers from Philadelphia & furniture workers from Grand Rapids.
Statewide, Pennsylvania has lots of similarities to North Carolina, western Pennsylvania has lots of similarities to the Midwest & WV.
Pittsburgh almost ended up in Virginia, which would be modern day West Virginia
With that said yeah I can see that as well as the economic message resonating, but then again what you speak of can only be corrected if if transition to more of a social type economy than a capitalism one currently in place. These upset rust belt residents are blaming others for their misfortune instead of channeling energy into staring their own businesses or refining job skills to become marketable in the 21st century economy.
Neither Trump nor Clinton can change it. We are a global economy and those rust belt states will look worse and have high unemployment in 4 years as well
Good point, and interesting, isn't it? For years (actually, decades) white people from rural and small-town America have pointed their fingers at blacks in the big, bad cities, while saying "You blacks needs to pull yourselves out of the ghetto and make something of yourselves. Stop depending on the government for money."
This election has shown us that these same small-town whites are saying to the government, "You need to bring our jobs back." So apparently the rust belt folks aren't interested in pulling themselves up by their bootstraps and getting educated, which I guess is their prerogative, but this also makes them hypocrites.
Good point, and interesting, isn't it? For years (actually, decades) white people from rural and small-town America have pointed their fingers at blacks in the big, bad cities, while saying "You blacks needs to pull yourselves out of the ghetto and make something of yourselves. Stop depending on the government for money."
This election has shown us that these same small-town whites are saying to the government, "You need to bring our jobs back." So apparently the rust belt folks aren't interested in pulling themselves up by their bootstraps and getting educated, which I guess is their prerogative, but this also makes them hypocrites.
Yep. They want jobs to come back to their small towns. Yet most of the people in these small towns haven't done anything to make themselves marketable in the 21st century. And how do I know that? They would've realized greater economic prospects elsewhere and left long ago. They want the 7 to 3 high paying blue collar lunchpail job to comeback while repeating each day over for the 30 years and not learning new skills. They want the government to intervene and force trade laws to punish companies that aren't in the US all in the name of social economic help. They are the same people who blame minority for food stamps and welfare in urban areas. Yet they cry that all of the jobs now are in the cities and big metros.
So if we do trade deals and jobs don't come back,but the cost of everything goes up due to more taxes, then what? You can't blame the democrats. And conservatives don't make trade deals to benefit those in small town USA.
Basically those that voted for Trump aren't much different than myself. I relocated out of the rust belt for a better job. These people want the government to provide a good paying job in a burned out mining town in western pa. Sorry I do not have sympathy for you.
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
23,814 posts, read 34,688,469 times
Reputation: 10256
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott_Holiday
Pittsburgh almost ended up in Virginia, which would be modern day West Virginia
Yes, the Penns claimed everything due west, North Carolina did too. Virginia, on the other hand wanted to claim everything. The Mason-Dixon line solved more than two claims.
Migration patterns are everything when it comes to who's where now. The early settlers were on the move, moreso than people today think that they were. That has a bearing on which areas have similarities today.
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