Do you think that Pennsylvania will be a Republican Leaning State By 2020? (Philadelphia: college, legal)

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by Duderino

On the other hand, many Pennsylvanians clearly did buy into the rhetoric of the Great Orange Snakeoil Salesman, which is why it went into the Republican column for the first time since '88 (although not, importantly, with a majority of votes, only a plurality).

Trump presents a sui generis situation. I think a big reason he was able to eke out a win in Pennsylvania was his stance on trade, which runs completely counter to the Republican national platform. If Republicans continue to run candidates that attack free trade, then yeah, they'll continue to be more competitive in the Rust Belt. I'm not sure how likely that is though.

It's too early to say how Trump will do in PA in 2020. If 13-20 million people end up losing their healthcare, then he'll almost assuredly lose the state. I think that's the one policy issue (more than jobs) that will doom his candidacy (and the GOP), which is why Republicans in Washington are freaking out over this Obamacare replacement.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Pennsylvania is both Whiter than average and less educated than average. So the drift to the Republican column is not that surprising. Whether that's permanent remains to be seen.

A small nit is that Pennsylvania's education levels, as of recent Census estimates, are essentially right at the national average (speaking only of Bachelor's degree or higher): Behind Donald Trump's big Ohio win - grossly lagging educational attainment, and Ohio lawmakers' neglect: Brent Larkin | cleveland.com

What's so interesting is that there's definitely an inversion going on in PA as far as educational attainment; among young adults (aged 25-34), Pennsylvania now ranks 12th among states for having a Bachelor's degree or higher (I referenced the 2015 Census data but this 2012 graphed data is very similar):

HigherEdInfo.org: ACS Educational Attainment by Degree-Level and Age-Group (American Community Survey)

There's also a very clear trend nationwide, and PA is no exception, of becoming less White over time. Looking at Pennsylvania school enrollment, for example, the proportion of students identifying as White declined by over 3% in just 4 years. As these children reach voting age, that will definitely have implications for the largely White and middle-aged-to-senior Republican Party.

Enrollment - Percent of students (pre-K - grade 12) by race and ethnicity | KIDS COUNT Data Center

Of course how any of this plays out in the future is not guaranteed, but if current trends hold of Pennsylvania's voting population becoming more diverse and educated, then all evidence points to 2016 being a "high water mark" for Republican support.

And that's even assuming that all of these supposed Democrat-turned-Republicans in Rust Belt areas keep voting as they did in 2016, completely ignoring the fact that they only voted for Trump because he was a "maverick" and an "outsider" and not because they're suddenly GOP faithful.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by Duderino

A small nit is that Pennsylvania's education levels, as of recent Census estimates, are essentially right at the national average (speaking only of Bachelor's degree or higher): Behind Donald Trump's big Ohio win - grossly lagging educational attainment, and Ohio lawmakers' neglect: Brent Larkin | cleveland.com

What's so interesting is that there's definitely an inversion going on in PA as far as educational attainment; among young adults (aged 25-34), Pennsylvania now ranks 12th among states for having a Bachelor's degree or higher (I referenced the 2015 Census data but this 2012 graphed data is very similar):

HigherEdInfo.org: ACS Educational Attainment by Degree-Level and Age-Group (American Community Survey)

There's also a very clear trend nationwide, and PA is no exception, of becoming less White over time. Looking at school enrollment, for example, the proportion of students identifying as White declined by over 3% in just 4 years. As these children reach voting age, that will definitely have implications for the largely White and middle-aged-to-senior Republican Party.

Enrollment - Percent of students (pre-K - grade 12) by race and ethnicity | KIDS COUNT Data Center

Of course how any of this plays out in the future is not guaranteed, but if current trends hold of Pennsylvania's voting population becoming more diverse and educated, then all evidence points to 2016 being a "high water mark" for Republican support.

And that's even assuming that all of these supposed Democrat-turned-Republicans in Rust Belt areas keep voting as they do, completely ignoring the fact that they only voted for Trump because he was a "maverick" and an "outsider" not because they're suddenly GOP faithful.

Pennsylvania is actually slightly below average (28.6% vs 29.8%).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...nal_attainment

Every state in the Union is becoming less White. Pennsylvania is still much Whiter than the country as a whole (77.4% vs 61.6%). Unlike, say, New Jersey, the non-White population in Pennsylvania isn't large enough to counter a 2-3% point swing in the White vote.

[nsgjdennis]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

The demographic advantage in the Southwest isn't "non-sense." Let's look at the 18-35 age group in Texas, for example.

Hispanic or Latino - 2,783,159 (43.2%)
Non Hispanic White - 2,520,096 (39.1%)
Black or African American - 842,337 (13.1%)
Asian - 303,175 (4.7%)

The issue with the Latino vote--not only in Texas but other parts of the U.S. as well--is that their share of the electorate has not caught up with their share of the total population. This will change as a younger, U.S.-born generation of Latinos comes of voting age.

It's also noteworthy that Hillary Clinton actually won suburban counties in Metro Houston and Atlanta. So there's also a trend of more urban, educated counties trending Democratic while Whiter, less educated counties trend more Republican.

Pennsylvania is both Whiter than average and less educated than average. So the drift to the Republican column is not that surprising. Whether that's permanent remains to be seen.

Again one election cycle does not indicate a trend. Trump Won college educate whites but it was at a much lower margins then what Republicans usually win that group because he targeted poorer whites to flip the Rust belt. Anyway have you ever been to Texas? The vast majority of the Hispanic Population has been there for generations and is practically completely assimilated. Most of them have no ties at all to illegal aliens. They have no reason to vote Democrat.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by nsgjdennis

Again one election cycle does not indicate a trend.

Then why did you say you can't see PA voting for a Democrat again if "one election cycle does not indicate a trend"?

Clinton won a low estimate of 61% and high estimate of 78% of the Latino vote in Texas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.19d5d28c620a

[nsgjdennis]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Then why did you say you can't see PA voting for a Democrat again if "one election cycle does not indicate a trend"?

Clinton won a low estimate of 61% and high estimate of 78% of the Latino vote in Texas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.19d5d28c620a

I would take anything that the Washington Post says with a grain of salt. I doubt those numbers are true and if they are Hispanics obviously voted Republican in State and Local races in November since the Democrats didn't gain any political power in the state even if they didn't vote for Trump. Anyway I never said Pennsylvania couldn't go Blue. I said it felt like things have changed. It doesn't feel like there are many Democrats anymore outside of Philadelphia. Statistically the Philadelphia Area stopped becoming more Democrat after 2008 while the rest of the state continued to become more Republican. You and the other guy started in with these Demographic theories that have been proven wrong time and time again.

[nsgjdennis]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Then why did you say you can't see PA voting for a Democrat again if "one election cycle does not indicate a trend"?

Clinton won a low estimate of 61% and high estimate of 78% of the Latino vote in Texas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.19d5d28c620a

Oh lord......I just clicked on that link. You realize those numbers that Fake News Article you linked is trying to pass off us are from "Latina Decisions"? That is an immigration activist group. They have every reason in the world to fudge those numbers. That is why they got so much less then anyone else.

[thecoalman]

Originally Posted by Duderino

I'm pretty sure completely gutting the EPA and fundamental protections for water and air is not what most people have in mind when they think of trying to address "over-regulation."

It's not 1890 anymore. We have certain regulations in place for a reason, regardless of whether the Mr. Burnses of the world think they "inhibit productivity."

Drink water in Pennsylvania? Trump's budget puts your health at risk, regulator says | PennLive.com

The EPA is a duplication of the services, laws and regulations of Pennsylvanian. Those services, regulations and laws are best left to PA. We don't need a pne size fits all Washington bureaucracy dictating them to us.

[thecoalman]

Originally Posted by Duderino

A small nit is that Pennsylvania's education levels, as of recent Census estimates, are essentially right at the national average

Considering we are in the top spenders by state and on par with rich nations like Switzerland in per pupil spending that is certainly something we need to look at. Clearly we are not getting out moneys worth.

[thecoalman]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Then why did you say you can't see PA voting for a Democrat again...

That's not something I would say but outside of Philadelphia the Democrats national agenda is not something Democrats in PA are too fond of and I think that is true for large part of the country. As they continue to move left they are going to alienate more of the moderate parts of the party. The Democratic party is extremely fractured at the moment and I donl't see how they are going to coalesce around a common ground. There is no Tea Party element coming to save their ass in 2020.

Wolfe for example got off to a rocky start and I thought for sure he would be the next one term Governor. I'm not so sure now but it looks he is beginning to work with the legislature, someone like Wolf would never make the national Democrat stage.