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Old 02-19-2018, 08:25 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,416 posts, read 11,917,166 times
Reputation: 10536

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jate88 View Post
Yeah the white spaces are unorganized territories. I don't how people make these congressional district maps.
Dave's Redistricting App. You'll need an older version of Firefox to run it though - it doesn't work on Chrome any longer.
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Old 02-19-2018, 12:08 PM
 
Location: Chambersburg, PA
179 posts, read 76,732 times
Reputation: 101
I think the Lehigh valley and the rest of NEPA in the white areas has 939,692 people and and Berks county has 411,442 people. So we can make another district in the rest of NEPA and combining the remaining parts of NEPA with Berks county to form another district.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Dave's Redistricting App. You'll need an older version of Firefox to run it though - it doesn't work on Chrome any longer.
Thanks. Is an older version of Firefox easy to come by?

Edit: I can't get it to work. It won't let me install silverlight.

Last edited by jate88; 02-19-2018 at 12:42 PM..
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Old 02-19-2018, 12:13 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,416 posts, read 11,917,166 times
Reputation: 10536
Quote:
Originally Posted by jate88 View Post
I think the Lehigh valley and the rest of NEPA in the white areas has 939,692 people and and Berks county has 411,442 people. So we can make another district in the rest of NEPA and combining the remaining parts of NEPA with Berks county to form another district.



Thanks. Is an older version of Firefox easy to come by?
Yeah, just google around for a legacy version. Basically you need something compatible with Silverlight.

Last edited by eschaton; 02-19-2018 at 01:10 PM..
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Old 02-19-2018, 01:19 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,416 posts, read 11,917,166 times
Reputation: 10536
The map has landed.



Just eyeballing it:

Likely D pickups:
PA-05 (old 7) - All of Delco + part of Philly + no Republican incumbent. Hillary got 62% of the vote yere.
PA-07 (old 15) - Compact Lehigh Valley + a bit of the Poconos. Hillary won this narrowly, and there is no Republican incumbent, meaning in a midterm environment, it should be a Democratic pickup.

Lean D Pickups:
PA-06 (same number) - Compact Chester+Reading district. Hillary won this with around 52.6% of the vote. It all comes down to whether Costello's incumbency means anything here

Tossup:
PA-01 (old PA-08) - Barely changes, and Fitzpatrick is a strong incumbent, but this will be a tough year for PA Republicans. Hillary won with a plurality (49.1% to 47.1%) here. It all comes down to split-ticket voters.
PA-17 (old PA-12) - This district probably only voted for Trump by 2%-3%. Conor Lamb ended up here, and if he does well next month in the special or wins outright, he could easily run against Rothfus.

Lean R:
PA-10 (?) - compact district centered around Harrisburg and a bit of York (including the city of York). Trump won this district, but only by around 9%, so it wouldn't be crazy for a Dem to be competitive here.

I think we're looking at 3-5 Democratic pickups with this map.

Last edited by eschaton; 02-19-2018 at 01:40 PM..
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Old 02-19-2018, 01:30 PM
 
Location: Chambersburg, PA
179 posts, read 76,732 times
Reputation: 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
The map has landed.



Just eyeballing it:

Likely D pickups:
PA-05 (old 7) - All of Delco + part of Philly + no Republican incumbent
PA-07 (old 15) - Compact Lehigh Valley + a bit of the Poconos. I think Hillary won this narrowly, and there is no Republican incumbent

Lean D Pickups:
PA-06 (same number) - Compact Chester+Reading district. Hillary won this. It all comes down to whether Costello's incumbency means anything here

Tossup:
PA-01 (old PA-08) - Barely changes, and Fitzpatrick is a strong incumbent, but this will be a tough year for PA Republicans
PA-17 (old PA-12) - This district probably only voted for Trump by a few percent. Conor Lamb appears to be in it, and if he does well next month in the special or wins outright, he could easily run against Rothfus.

Lean R:
PA-10 (?) - compact district centered around Harrisburg and a bit of York (including the city of York). Thus should have been a Trump district, but not by a crazy margin.

I think we're looking at 3-5 Democratic pickups with this map.
So this is the court's map?
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Old 02-19-2018, 01:33 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
5,951 posts, read 7,319,432 times
Reputation: 3734
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
The map has landed.



Just eyeballing it:

Likely D pickups:
PA-05 (old 7) - All of Delco + part of Philly + no Republican incumbent
PA-07 (old 15) - Compact Lehigh Valley + a bit of the Poconos. I think Hillary won this narrowly, and there is no Republican incumbent

Lean D Pickups:
PA-06 (same number) - Compact Chester+Reading district. Hillary won this. It all comes down to whether Costello's incumbency means anything here

Tossup:
PA-01 (old PA-08) - Barely changes, and Fitzpatrick is a strong incumbent, but this will be a tough year for PA Republicans
PA-17 (old PA-12) - This district probably only voted for Trump by a few percent. Conor Lamb appears to be in it, and if he does well next month in the special or wins outright, he could easily run against Rothfus.

Lean R:
PA-10 (?) - compact district centered around Harrisburg and a bit of York (including the city of York). Thus should have been a Trump district, but not by a crazy margin.

I think we're looking at 3-5 Democratic pickups with this map.
Looks fair and reasonable, actually very close to what The Daily Kos showed as a possible fair map. It's look pretty possible as well that whoever loses in the special election could still get to be in Congress after the November elections as Rick Saccone will be in a pretty easy district for Republicans to win, so I think he will run again if he loses. Conor Lamb then as you said will be in a district which I could see going his way for sure against hard right Rothfus (2nd most right wing Congressman in PA according to this site https://www.govtrack.us/congress/mem...house/ideology) in what is a pretty moderate area. I don't see Rothfus as someone who has the likability or excitement of Lamb at all as well.
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Old 02-19-2018, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,416 posts, read 11,917,166 times
Reputation: 10536
Quote:
Originally Posted by jate88 View Post
So this is the court's map?
Yes.
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Old 02-19-2018, 01:41 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,416 posts, read 11,917,166 times
Reputation: 10536
Quote:
Originally Posted by bradjl2009 View Post
Looks fair and reasonable, actually very close to what The Daily Kos showed as a possible fair map. It's look pretty possible as well that whoever loses in the special election could still get to be in Congress after the November elections as Rick Saccone will be in a pretty easy district for Republicans to win, so I think he will run again if he loses. Conor Lamb then as you said will be in a district which I could see going his way for sure against hard right Rothfus (2nd most right wing Congressman in PA according to this site https://www.govtrack.us/congress/mem...house/ideology) in what is a pretty moderate area. I don't see Rothfus as someone who has the likability or excitement of Lamb at all as well.
I agree with all of this, but Saccone apparently lives in Allegheny County somewhere in the Forward/Elizabeth Township area. Hence, his home is now in PA-14.
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Old 02-19-2018, 01:53 PM
 
Location: Northeast Suburbs of PITTSBURGH
3,718 posts, read 3,571,762 times
Reputation: 2331
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
I agree with all of this, but Saccone apparently lives in Allegheny County somewhere in the Forward/Elizabeth Township area. Hence, his home is now in PA-14.
No it's still in 18... well the new 18. Elizabeth is still Allegheny and the 18 border follows the county line.
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Old 02-19-2018, 01:57 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
5,951 posts, read 7,319,432 times
Reputation: 3734
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
I agree with all of this, but Saccone apparently lives in Allegheny County somewhere in the Forward/Elizabeth Township area. Hence, his home is now in PA-14.
Wow my mistake, I didn't realize that. I thought he lived in Westmoreland County, but wouldn't that put him in the new PA 18th which looks to be very safe for Doyle? Either way, the GOP will pick back up much of what the old 18th was if Lamb wins but with Lamb having a solid shot at unseating Rothfus.
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