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Yes, the numbers don't lie. According to these statistics, the percentage of voting age population who voted was only down 1% when comparing 2016 and 2008.
I had read numerous articles since the 2016 election where Obama voters did not come out to vote in 2016. I think there was a lot of enthusiasm for Obama in 2008 and many people did not vote in 2012 because they assumed McCain didn't have a chance. Many Black voters did not have the same enthusiasm for Clinton and did not vote in 2016. These articles support the drop in Black voting.
Bottom line is I think Black and college educated people will come out much stronger for Biden in 2020. I predict Biden will win at least five counties in Western PA, in addition to Allegheny. I think Biden will do much better in some of the Allegheny County suburbs such as Mt. Lebanon, Upper St. Clair,, South Fayette, Bethel Park, etc. Once you got away from the city of Pgh and the eastern suburbs, Clinton's support was not that strong.
Yes but there were MANY people that turned out for Trump in 2016 that usually do not vote at all in previous elections, and a huge number of white college aged students without jobs. Some black as well actually.
Yes but there were MANY people that turned out for Trump in 2016 that usually do not vote at all in previous elections, and a huge number of white college aged students without jobs. Some black as well actually.
Yes, there was enthusiasm for Trump approaching the enthusiasm for Obama in 2008, and in both cases there were many people who had not voted regularly, or at all. There is still unbelievable loyalty to Trump but it is in a dwindling minority of voters, probably no higher than on the the low 40s percent. Definitely not high enough to win the electoral vote this time around.
1. I believe that Pennsylvania will be the MOST important state in the 2020 election. The candidate that wins PA will win the election.
2. I would say the most populated parts of PA lean moderate / liberal as the years go on, notably the Philadelphia suburbs, Lancaster County, and Lehigh Valley. And going forward, the only parts of PA that are growing are those regions, and its shows in every census and every election.
3. Chester County, along with Bucks County are considered moderate to liberal. Socially liberal and fiscally moderate is a good way to describe them. Chester County in particular has become more moderate / liberal as the years the go on. If Hillary won Chester County in 2016, I would be stunned if Joe Biden did not win Chester County. I view Chester County as a Montgomery County in the making. Its more rural on the fringes, but has an increasing wealthy, educated demographic over the years. Bucks County is another middle-ground county, but again, I would be stunned if any suburban Philadelphia County went for Trump in 2020. Delaware and Montgomery Counties, obviously no.
4. I don't know where you got the vibe that PA is becoming more conservative. The recent midterm election is a good example to prove otherwise. That is fine that you are a conservative republican, but being realistic, I would say PA's future is more blue than red. (Plus, Romney is a lot different than Trump).
Plus, it helps that Biden has very strong ties to PA. In 2016, a lot of people didn't like Trump or Hillary, therefore they either didn't vote, or thought Trump was the lesser of two evils. Many of those same people now loathe Trump and are fine with Biden. It will be a very interesting few months.
In summary, I know both sides of the state will come out in full force (assuming we are open), but I see Biden winning by a fair enough Margin.
Also, I believe Biden's wife earned her master's degree from WCU. When I was going there for my undergrad, that was one of their selling points.
Also, for the longest time, Montgomery County was red, really up until 2012. Dad is retiring from the county in November (he'll get a new part time job) and when he started working for Montgomery County in 1987, you HAD to be Republican. It was Republican until Democrats won in 2012. More Jewish people also started working for the Catholic County agencies, dad screamed when they took away Good Friday off. I left Catholicism when I was 11 and said, "dad, they're only being fair. No other faith gets their holidays off. Calm down." Dad is C&E Catholic and has an interest in Judaism, and he understood that.
Also, I believe Biden's wife earned her master's degree from WCU. When I was going there for my undergrad, that was one of their selling points.
Also, for the longest time, Montgomery County was red, really up until 2012. Dad is retiring from the county in November (he'll get a new part time job) and when he started working for Montgomery County in 1987, you HAD to be Republican. It was Republican until Democrats won in 2012.
Actually, Montgomery County (and Delaware County) were the "early adopters" among Philadelphia's suburban counties in terms of trending "blue." MontCo went for Clinton in '92 by a narrow plurality and has remained blue in Presidential elections ever since. Chester and Bucks have now very clearly followed suit. But there's no doubt it had a "Rockefeller Republican" history.
On a broader note, I thought it would be interesting to at least partially quantify the shift in electorate that I noted in an earlier post regarding Pennsylvania becoming more educated, diverse, and "urban" since 2016, mirroring most the the US. This is only two years of change but still interesting nonetheless and shows how, on top of a very different climate of current events from 2016, the voter pool will likely reflect shifts, too.
American Community Survey Data (2016-2018) Pennsylvania Population Changes
Educational Attainment - Highest Degree Obtained/Grade Completed (amongst population aged 25+)
Bachelor's or Higher: +114,745
High School Graduate or Lower: -86,694
Race
White (only): -84,793
Non-white: +107,626
Population/Geography
Change in Philadelphia area (5 core counties): +32,084
Change in rest of Pennsylvania: -9,191
Also why was Centre County slightly blue in 2016? Is there any big city there or something? Only driven through it and really have never been there, so I found it quite odd as to what is attracting liberal support there.
Generally speaking you need to be very careful about lumping local political affiliation in PA with national policies. In 2008 where I live the Democrats had a very healthy 2:1 margin in voter registrations. It's been like that forever but is slowing shifting towards Republicans, Obama won both elections easily. Trump flipped that in 2016 and a lot of that is to do with Democrat national platform.
2008:
Obama 71,903
McCain 60,512
2012:
Obama 64,307
Romney 58,325
2016:
Trump 78,688
Clinton 52,451
Note the slightly larger turnout in 2008 compared to 2016.
Most of the older people I know are lifelong Democrats but as the party moves further to the left they are beginning to question their parties national platform. Biden will likely be last gasp for traditional Democrats and the election will be close here in PA. When 2024 rolls around people like this are going to find it very difficult to pull the lever for a D because it will likely be much more liberal candidate
To sum up what is going on here in Northeast PA you only need to look up Yudichak who is PA state senator and abandoned the Democrat party. He switched to independent and will caucus with Republicans. Locally for Democrats this was like a political nuclear bomb.
Actually, Montgomery County (and Delaware County) were the "early adopters" among Philadelphia's suburban counties in terms of trending "blue." MontCo went for Clinton in '92 by a narrow plurality and has remained blue in Presidential elections ever since. Chester and Bucks have now very clearly followed suit. But there's no doubt it had a "Rockefeller Republican" history.
On a broader note, I thought it would be interesting to at least partially quantify the shift in electorate that I noted in an earlier post regarding Pennsylvania becoming more educated, diverse, and "urban" since 2016, mirroring most the the US. This is only two years of change but still interesting nonetheless and shows how, on top of a very different climate of current events from 2016, the voter pool will likely reflect shifts, too.
American Community Survey Data (2016-2018) Pennsylvania Population Changes
Educational Attainment - Highest Degree Obtained/Grade Completed (amongst population aged 25+)
Bachelor's or Higher: +114,745
High School Graduate or Lower: -86,694
Race
White (only): -84,793
Non-white: +107,626
Population/Geography
Change in Philadelphia area (5 core counties): +32,084
Change in rest of Pennsylvania: -9,191
Maybe it was just dad's job that remained Red. He's a Deputy for Montco. He's still a lifelong Republican and although he hates Trump, he would never vote against Red. Have no idea if that will change once he retires, which is a day before Election Day. Gosh, I hope he gets another job. He wants one, but who knows with this economy.
Maybe it was just dad's job that remained Red. He's a Deputy for Montco. He's still a lifelong Republican and although he hates Trump, he would never vote against Red. Have no idea if that will change once he retires, which is a day before Election Day. Gosh, I hope he gets another job. He wants one, but who knows with this economy.
Hi, Jess:
Your Dad is one of those people you should talk to about blanking their Presidential ballot, voting Libertarian or writing in someone else if they can't stand the thought of voting for the Democratic candidate.
Democrats are used to doing these things, or simply staying home, to register their disapproval of or lack of interest in the approved candidate. As I noted above, it's likely that the younger Berniecrats will do that come November barring some sea change, and if your Dad would like to see Trump gone but not vote for the opposition, this is a way to do it.
So he works for the County Sheriff's Office? FTR, one of my Harvard '80 classmates recently stepped down from the Springfield Township Board of Commissioners and is the husband of one of the two members of the Montgomery County Commission's Democratic majority. Wonder what his opinion of the county government is now? It seems to me that the Dems are running Montco as competently as the GOP did.
Edited to add: Montgomery was the first of the four collar counties to switch firmly from a Republican to a Democratic party government; IIRC, Democrats took over the County Commission four years into Clinton's tenure and haven't given it up since.
Bucks has long alternated between Democratic and Republican majorities on its County Commission and still does.
The Chester County Commission, IIRC, remains in Republican hands, and I don't see that changing soon, but the county seat of West Chester is definitely liberal; the borough declared itself a "nuclear-free zone" in the 1980s, and its school district, which includes a couple of the adjacent townships to the east of the borough, named its third and newest (and highest-rated) high school for the openly gay black West Chester native who organized the 1963 March on Washington, Bayard Rustin.
Delaware County has a home rule charter, and its County Council (as well as the government of its oldest and poorest city, majority-black Chester — a rarity) has long been dominated by a Republican Party that has at times been called "the last Republican machine in America." (Philadelphia had one of these until 1951.) That all ended in the 2018 election, when Delaware Countians handed the council over to the Democrats for the first time in anyone's living memory.
Last edited by MarketStEl; 06-15-2020 at 06:40 AM..
What effect will the virus and mail in ballots have in November? Officials were surprised, and caught off guard, with the record number of mail in ballots received for the Primary. I read they were still counting ballots for days after polls closed.
One editorial I read said that PA better get their act together for November. The results of the election, especially with PA being a swing state, could be held up for days waiting for PA results.
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