South Central PA population to increase 20% by 2030 (Philadelphia, Scranton: townhouses, transfer)

[danwxman]

Midstate population to increase nearly 20 percent by 2030
By Jessica Bair

This region's population is expected to grow by nearly 20 percent, to about 1.7 million people, between 2000 and 2030, according to information released this month by the Pennsylvania State Data Center at Penn State Harrisburg.

Here is a breakdown of the center's projections:

* Cumberland County's population is expected to grow by 32 percent, to 282,921
* Dauphin County's population is expected to grow by 7 percent, to 269,855
* Lancaster County's population is expected to grow by 18 percent, to 553,293
* Lebanon County's population is expected to grow by 9 percent, to 131,118
* York County's population is expected to grow by 27 percent, to 482,984
...

[BackToTheCityMouse]

The data charts at the Pennsylvania State Data Center (go to the article for a live link) show a pretty grim projection. PA overall will actually see a slight decrease in population by 2030 in most age groups except for seniors. Wish there were age demographic projections by county for this timeframe.

The counties showing the most growth in south central PA thru 2030 are also less racially diverse (see the Data Center charts). PA may become a red state in the not-too-distant future, part of the little red swirl that voted more Repub in 2008 than in 2004 stretching from the PA mountains southwest thru Oklahoma.

[ScranBarre]

I don't at all agree with their projections for Luzerne County though. Supposedly we will shed 10% of our population between 2000 and 2030, but the past several years have shown estimated population growth here. There is a lot of new construction going on in terms of townhouses and upscale subdivisions of single-family homes, and I've noticed quite a few out-of-state license plates coming in and out of their entrances. As the Poconos continue to become more suburbanized in character, I think you'll see a mass influx of Pocono natives into the outlying suburban parts of Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties as they try to "avoid the city people." We're already seeing this trend starting---the property transfers I track show an increasing number of people from Monroe County are relocating to the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by BackToTheCityMouse

T
The counties showing the most growth in south central PA thru 2030 are also less racially diverse (see the Data Center charts). PA may become a red state in the not-too-distant future, part of the little red swirl that voted more Repub in 2008 than in 2004 stretching from the PA mountains southwest thru Oklahoma.

I'm not sure how you've come to that conclusion, since PA voted about 8% more Democratic this year than in 2004. On the contrary, PA has proven itself to be a solidly blue state, due in no small part to increased urbanization of the Eastern part of the state.

As for the other "projections," I think all bets are off until the economy stabilizes. It's a fact that people have fewer children and therefore blunt population growth during recessions, as well as less people moving -- either into or out of -- states. I personally think the growth in eastern PA will be stable, with larger growth continuing in the Lehigh Valley and York/Harrisburg areas. If any, the regions that will likely continue to see population losses are the more rural areas of the state as more people gravitate toward larger metro areas.

[BackToTheCityMouse]

I am only guessing. I don't claim to be Nostradamus

Personally, I think all of the south central PA growth projections are way off because so much recent growth has been based on folks moving here and commuting out of the area to work. That just isn't sustainable over 2 more decades, drill or no drill. If the jobs picture improved, there could be greater growth than what has been projected, and a lot more currently red counties would turn purple. Would love to see this happen, but don't know if it could happen here. Based on what I hear from some of my neighbors, their children are still leaving the state for college and beyond, and are not planning to come back. Some won't even come home for holidays 'cause they think there is nothing here to do.

I won't call it a 'brain drain' because not all intelligent people are leaving. To me it's more of a 'creativity drain'.

Also, rural counties are adding population. Women there often marry younger, marry more than once, and have children in more than one marriage situation. Juniata County has grown 13% since we left, and I don't think most of the new residents are commuters looking for cheaper McMansions. A lot of people born there do tend to stay.

[bobsmith]

South-Central Pennsylvania will be growing in part because of its relative proximity to Baltimore and Washington D.C. This has real potential for the area to do what many areas in the D.C. Metro are already doing and practice smart growth patterns.

After years and years of building garrish McMansions with unneccissarily large yards, Bucks County developers are slowly starting to shift towards smart growth. Hopefully this will spread to South-Central Pennsylvania as well as the Lehigh Valley.

[BPP1999]

Perhaps the jobs picture in that region will improve once there's more and more educated yuppies living there.

It's nice to see regions of PA growing; too bad the growth is largely sprawl.

[CHIP72]

South Central PA, much like the Lehigh Valley and to a lesser degree parts of NE PA, is increasingly becoming part of Megalopolis. The growth is being driven by people who work in the Philadelphia, Baltimore, or Washington areas living in cheaper, further out locations from those cities, and also by people moving from those areas as well as the New York metro area to a location that is slower-paced and cheaper but still has a good amount of amenities and is still close to those aforementioned cities. Some of the growth in south central PA is also being driven by people in western PA relocating there for job opportunities.

These demographic changes are going to make the area more "blue" politically, not "red".

[CHIP72]

Originally Posted by BPP1999

It's nice to see regions of PA growing; too bad the growth is largely sprawl.

Blame Pennsylvania way-oudated land use regulations (based at the municipal level rather than the county level) for that.

[BackToTheCityMouse]

Joining the East Coastal Metro and getting more 'yuppies' to move here would make central PA counties more blue. But the actual data projections show that young adults (yuppies = young adults) will be a decreasing percentage of the population from where it is now to 2030. All age groups except for seniors will lose percentage points. Could be that by 2030 more seniors will be liberals. Dunno.