Questioning Personal Finance Dogma (income, mortgage, deduction, refinance)
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My wife and I are fortunate enough to make a decent living and we have worked hard to keep our living expenses fairly low (at least comfortably below our income). We are about 30 years old and are currently in a position where, after all expenses each month, we have about $4,000 extra.
We have no credit card debt or car loans. The only debt we have is about $15k in student loans and $100k left of a mortgage. We both contribute to our 401k's up to the company match, but no more, and currently no outside investment accounts.
Our strategy up to this point has been to eliminate all debt. Over the course of the past 5 years we bought our first house, accumulated furniture for the house (etc.), bought cars for ourselves, paid off my student loans (they were pretty small), and paid for our wedding. All the while we have both seen our incomes gradually improve. So after a few years of big purchases and debt paydown, we all of a sudden find ourselves in a position where we have extra cash at the end of each month.
The thing is, I'm not quite sure what to do with the extra money. My instinct is to pay off my mortgage (which we should be able to accomplish in a couple of years), though I know that in theory it's probably wiser to invest the extra money since the returns will likely be in excess of the 5% interest savings.
I also know the standard financial advice - accumulate an emergency fund, max out tax deferred retirement accounts, invest extra, etc. However, I'm not sure the standard route is the way I want to go at this point in my life.
I agree that you can't go wrong by maxing out tax deferred retirement accounts. But I find myself not wanting to put my cash in an account that keeps me from accessing it (without penalty) until I'm 59. I don't question the "soundness" of this advice, but I don't know whether it makes sense for me to put all my wealth accumulation into an account that I can't access for so long. It seems like an ultimate long term view (again, not that there's anything wrong with this) and it doesn't really improve my day-to-day financial position other than the peace of mind of seeing my long term assets rise.
I am very conservative and I dislike the idea of paying interest (generally). My first instinct is to pay off my mortgage, as this eliminates my largest recurring monthly expenditure and also helps me build equity (though likely not as quickly as through investing). As soon as the mortgage is paid off, my monthly savings go from $4k to $5k each month. At that point, my thought is that I can start saving up a downpayment for my next house (my current house is a true starter home, so in a few years we'd like to move to a nicer house/neighborhood). In four years, I can have my current house paid off and a $120k downpayment on my next home. Then, I can rent my current home out and it should almost cover what's left of my next mortgage. This sounds like a really nice situation to me and much better to me than maxing out a 401k/IRA. And after I get to this point, I can switch my focus to investing more (and maybe also paying off the next mortgage ).
So the point of this thread is not necessarily meant to be specifically about my situation (though feel free to let me know if I'm crazy), but more about whether it's okay to deviate from the standard advice. Please let me know what you think and whether maybe anyone else deviated from the standard plan and ended up okay.
First of all, congratulations on being debt conscious and investigating all prudent avenues to maximize your income!
Now, let me say that.....This World Has Changed! 20, heck, even 10 years ago folks kept up with the Joneses by using credit cards, home equity lines, unsecured loans and the like. It was always understood in mainstream America that you were always moving upward, both in income and toys. You know, move from that 100k starter home to a 250k middle of the road home in a decent neighborhood to the 500k home with a pool in a gated community. Add that to a growing list of accumulated debt such as the latest and greatest SUV's, a home full of furniture that rarely ever all gets used, gaudy jewelry to flash topped with a country club membership and then...kiddos. Sure, hubby's got that 220k per year job NOW, but what happens if he loses it? In today's world, the chances of hubby losing that great job are much greater than in 2000.
Just the scenario above to describe how I believe that this keeping up with the Joneses mentality is no longer the case. By and large, most folks today are trying to survive and have cut way back on the credit lifestyle. Myself as an example. I tried real estate and partly timing, partly economy, I managed to get out but had lost a great deal of what I put in and I had all the headaches to go along with it. Back in 2005, my good job ended. I went from making 90k to about 32k overnight. I've since began to make a bit more, 48k today. My wife's good job was also gone back in 09. 70k to 26k today. So we went from 160k to 74k per year.
All of this above to just tell you how my view has changed. I am now CASH ONLY. If we don't have the cash, we aren't buying. With the shaky economy, the devaluation of the dollar and the MASSIVE amount of debt that the country is in and it's unwillingness to do anything about it speaks volumes. It is a house of cards that will come tumbling down, sooner or later. The above scenario and my belief in the last two sentences has instilled discipline in me like you would not believe.
The only debt we have left is 26k owed on our home. It's valued at 180k and the neighborhood is stable. We are on track to pay it off in October 2014. 10 years ago we would have been looking to move up to that next big house. Today, we are happy where we are and do not plan to go anywhere. We own both our cars, have 30k cash in the bank for an emergency fund and unfortunately, only 110k of retirement combined. We are working on that though. We are 43 and 39 respectively. I am now maxing my 401k and my wife has a Roth just started. She does not have contribution match with her employer.
Just my scenario above to hopefully get you to evaluate your situation completely and thoroughly. Be grateful for your good jobs and plan for a dim future but hope for a great one. Maybe the house you are in would be good for a couple more years till you can totally pay cash for a larger one?
think how nervous I get when the government talks about taking over the 401K's. I would keep everything I could under my control .......... I am not sure I would ever put anything into a 401K again. It cost some in taxes, but I like to be totally in control of my money.
1) Congress could do anything it wants and changes any number of laws about any kind of account so the comment about being in control of your own money makes no sense.
2) If investments are not in certain KINDS of accounts you might have more control over how it's invested and what it's invested in, when you can move it, etc. but again rules on all of that could change too.
Just be as wise as you can thinking ahead -- and again, try to be informed about where the big money is going. Big money people and insiders know a whole lot we little people don't know. Just try to be as aware as you can.
You think the folks Congress couldn't have stopped orl at least alleviated the recession. Heck, (this is just my opinion) they partly CAUSED by allowing banks to do certain loans and allowing certain kinds of packaged financial investment instruments. Members of the banking committees got sweetheart mortgages, get in on IPOs we can't get, and the SEC testimony before Congress on the entire financial collapse was absolutely PATHETIC -- the finger pointing and "blame game" It's a darn shame. THAT"S WHY...just be wise and do the best you can to be ready for whatever you can..even knowing you can't foresee EVERYthing.
First of all, congratulations on being debt conscious and investigating all prudent avenues to maximize your income!
Now, let me say that.....This World Has Changed! 20, heck, even 10 years ago folks kept up with the Joneses by using credit cards, home equity lines, unsecured loans and the like. It was always understood in mainstream America that you were always moving upward, both in income and toys. You know, move from that 100k starter home to a 250k middle of the road home in a decent neighborhood to the 500k home with a pool in a gated community. Add that to a growing list of accumulated debt such as the latest and greatest SUV's, a home full of furniture that rarely ever all gets used, gaudy jewelry to flash topped with a country club membership and then...kiddos. Sure, hubby's got that 220k per year job NOW, but what happens if he loses it? In today's world, the chances of hubby losing that great job are much greater than in 2000.
Just the scenario above to describe how I believe that this keeping up with the Joneses mentality is no longer the case. By and large, most folks today are trying to survive and have cut way back on the credit lifestyle. Myself as an example. I tried real estate and partly timing, partly economy, I managed to get out but had lost a great deal of what I put in and I had all the headaches to go along with it. Back in 2005, my good job ended. I went from making 90k to about 32k overnight. I've since began to make a bit more, 48k today. My wife's good job was also gone back in 09. 70k to 26k today. So we went from 160k to 74k per year.
All of this above to just tell you how my view has changed. I am now CASH ONLY. If we don't have the cash, we aren't buying. With the shaky economy, the devaluation of the dollar and the MASSIVE amount of debt that the country is in and it's unwillingness to do anything about it speaks volumes. It is a house of cards that will come tumbling down, sooner or later. The above scenario and my belief in the last two sentences has instilled discipline in me like you would not believe.
The only debt we have left is 26k owed on our home. It's valued at 180k and the neighborhood is stable. We are on track to pay it off in October 2014. 10 years ago we would have been looking to move up to that next big house. Today, we are happy where we are and do not plan to go anywhere. We own both our cars, have 30k cash in the bank for an emergency fund and unfortunately, only 110k of retirement combined. We are working on that though. We are 43 and 39 respectively. I am now maxing my 401k and my wife has a Roth just started. She does not have contribution match with her employer.
Just my scenario above to hopefully get you to evaluate your situation completely and thoroughly. Be grateful for your good jobs and plan for a dim future but hope for a great one. Maybe the house you are in would be good for a couple more years till you can totally pay cash for a larger one?
For some reason noone plans for a job loss. Nowadays in your whole working lifetime there is a good chance you will get layed off, fired, etc at least once. If not more unfortunately. The ones who don't have that 500k house paying $2900 a month on a 100k income will survive, while the rest will lose their home and everything along with it.
The middle ground is usually just fine for most of Americans.
My wife and I are fortunate enough to make a decent living and we have worked hard to keep our living expenses fairly low (at least comfortably below our income). We are about 30 years old and are currently in a position where, after all expenses each month, we have about $4,000 extra.
We have no credit card debt or car loans. The only debt we have is about $15k in student loans and $100k left of a mortgage. We both contribute to our 401k's up to the company match, but no more, and currently no outside investment accounts.
Our strategy up to this point has been to eliminate all debt. Over the course of the past 5 years we bought our first house, accumulated furniture for the house (etc.), bought cars for ourselves, paid off my student loans (they were pretty small), and paid for our wedding. All the while we have both seen our incomes gradually improve. So after a few years of big purchases and debt paydown, we all of a sudden find ourselves in a position where we have extra cash at the end of each month.
The thing is, I'm not quite sure what to do with the extra money. My instinct is to pay off my mortgage (which we should be able to accomplish in a couple of years), though I know that in theory it's probably wiser to invest the extra money since the returns will likely be in excess of the 5% interest savings.
I also know the standard financial advice - accumulate an emergency fund, max out tax deferred retirement accounts, invest extra, etc. However, I'm not sure the standard route is the way I want to go at this point in my life.
I agree that you can't go wrong by maxing out tax deferred retirement accounts. But I find myself not wanting to put my cash in an account that keeps me from accessing it (without penalty) until I'm 59. I don't question the "soundness" of this advice, but I don't know whether it makes sense for me to put all my wealth accumulation into an account that I can't access for so long. It seems like an ultimate long term view (again, not that there's anything wrong with this) and it doesn't really improve my day-to-day financial position other than the peace of mind of seeing my long term assets rise.
I am very conservative and I dislike the idea of paying interest (generally). My first instinct is to pay off my mortgage, as this eliminates my largest recurring monthly expenditure and also helps me build equity (though likely not as quickly as through investing). As soon as the mortgage is paid off, my monthly savings go from $4k to $5k each month. At that point, my thought is that I can start saving up a downpayment for my next house (my current house is a true starter home, so in a few years we'd like to move to a nicer house/neighborhood). In four years, I can have my current house paid off and a $120k downpayment on my next home. Then, I can rent my current home out and it should almost cover what's left of my next mortgage. This sounds like a really nice situation to me and much better to me than maxing out a 401k/IRA. And after I get to this point, I can switch my focus to investing more (and maybe also paying off the next mortgage ).
So the point of this thread is not necessarily meant to be specifically about my situation (though feel free to let me know if I'm crazy), but more about whether it's okay to deviate from the standard advice. Please let me know what you think and whether maybe anyone else deviated from the standard plan and ended up okay.
Wow, dude. You're really set up pretty nicely.
I'm on a similar trajectory to you, but I'm following the standard dogma. The reason why is that it's working for me. I'm sure you realize this, but by trying to avoid one type of risk you are exposing yourself to a very real near term risk. What if something happens before your goal of paying off your home is reached? With that kind of disposable income and attitude, I'm not sure why you would want to accept that risk when you can still accomplish your goals. Your short term risk is compounded by long term opportunity cost in not making regular, larger, diversified contributions to your investments today. It's a very risky position to take and I think there's better reward for that kind of exposure (even assuming a 10% ROI on a 100K rental property...which is a great goal to have, but you can't add equity to the cost of the home every month for a better return once you own it!).
If you don't like the aspect of investing into standard retirement vehicles, you can choose something outside of those channels and still take advantage of dollar cost averaging...but the cost of admission tends to be a lot higher (minimum investments to play, etc).
Why do you want to fly in the face of convention when you can really do it all?
My wife and I are fortunate enough to make a decent living and we have worked hard to keep our living expenses fairly low (at least comfortably below our income). We are about 30 years old and are currently in a position where, after all expenses each month, we have about $4,000 extra.
We have no credit card debt or car loans. The only debt we have is about $15k in student loans and $100k left of a mortgage. We both contribute to our 401k's up to the company match, but no more, and currently no outside investment accounts.
Our strategy up to this point has been to eliminate all debt. Over the course of the past 5 years we bought our first house, accumulated furniture for the house (etc.), bought cars for ourselves, paid off my student loans (they were pretty small), and paid for our wedding. All the while we have both seen our incomes gradually improve. So after a few years of big purchases and debt paydown, we all of a sudden find ourselves in a position where we have extra cash at the end of each month.
The thing is, I'm not quite sure what to do with the extra money. My instinct is to pay off my mortgage (which we should be able to accomplish in a couple of years), though I know that in theory it's probably wiser to invest the extra money since the returns will likely be in excess of the 5% interest savings.
I also know the standard financial advice - accumulate an emergency fund, max out tax deferred retirement accounts, invest extra, etc. However, I'm not sure the standard route is the way I want to go at this point in my life.
I agree that you can't go wrong by maxing out tax deferred retirement accounts. But I find myself not wanting to put my cash in an account that keeps me from accessing it (without penalty) until I'm 59. I don't question the "soundness" of this advice, but I don't know whether it makes sense for me to put all my wealth accumulation into an account that I can't access for so long. It seems like an ultimate long term view (again, not that there's anything wrong with this) and it doesn't really improve my day-to-day financial position other than the peace of mind of seeing my long term assets rise.
I am very conservative and I dislike the idea of paying interest (generally). My first instinct is to pay off my mortgage, as this eliminates my largest recurring monthly expenditure and also helps me build equity (though likely not as quickly as through investing). As soon as the mortgage is paid off, my monthly savings go from $4k to $5k each month. At that point, my thought is that I can start saving up a downpayment for my next house (my current house is a true starter home, so in a few years we'd like to move to a nicer house/neighborhood). In four years, I can have my current house paid off and a $120k downpayment on my next home. Then, I can rent my current home out and it should almost cover what's left of my next mortgage. This sounds like a really nice situation to me and much better to me than maxing out a 401k/IRA. And after I get to this point, I can switch my focus to investing more (and maybe also paying off the next mortgage ).
So the point of this thread is not necessarily meant to be specifically about my situation (though feel free to let me know if I'm crazy), but more about whether it's okay to deviate from the standard advice. Please let me know what you think and whether maybe anyone else deviated from the standard plan and ended up okay.
It sounds like you're really going in a good direction.
-I like the philosophy of "CASH". Meaning cash in hand. If you don't have the actual cash in your hand to pay for something, don't do it.
The problem with credit cards (even if you don't carry a balance). There may be an annual fee. They may change the terms around in a relatively short period of time. You can't count on credit cards being the same for the next 3-5-10 years. They change due dates around, minimum payments, grace periods, etc.
If even if you only charge a small amount, add that to an annual fee + plus interest (say past the due date), + some penalty, it can quickly add up.
-I think you are more conscious of what things cost with "CASH" in hand. Want new furniture for $2,500? That's a lot of money in cash. CASH is a totally different mindset IMO than credit. You can still spend and buy things (maybe buy things used or at a discount store).
-I think a lot of standard financial theory/dogma, it's been predicated on......friendly goverment climate, incentives (i.e. tax free ira's), low interest rates and an overall stable environment.
Not sure if that'll be the case in 20 or 30 years. Even 5 or 10 years. A lot of accounting tricks and changes of decimal places give you an "advantage". Taxes could be raised massively in the future. The concept of "tax free" retirement savings could be as tenuous and shaky as no state income tax on internet sales.
You have all these broke entities (states, municipalities) looking for revenue. Hmmmm. Not saying it'll happen tomorrow, but it's shaky. I think the rules will be massively changed in 20 years. As different as the LBJ and Nixon, Carter years as the low capital gains and personal tax rates of Clinton.
-What about a vacation house? What about a little boat or yacht? It depends on where you live, but in terms of quality of life, it might be nice.
My parents are 65. They live 15-20 minutes from the beach and marina. I think its kind of sad they don't have a boat to go out in on weekends or in the summer. There's a lot of quality of life you can't find in an account or in standard financial advice.
-I would also think about international investments. Most US financial advice is way too US centric. The Dow and S&P for example have been flat since 1998/1999!! Not counting a lot of inflation since. Think about the changes in Asia and China in the last 20/30 years. If someone had just stuck with US advice 20/30 years ago, they would have missed ALOT of opportunity.
Again, it's "speculative" for an average investor. But I think a lot of people in this country have blinders on. Huge opportunities elsewhere, and the average US advice is....buy US stocks, diversify here, etc.
I really appreciate the advice everyone has provided. A lot of very good points that I'm still trying to fully mull over.
I don't currently have an emergency fund per se. I have about 4 months worth of savings in my checking account, but I plan on using this cash (and all my future months' excess savings) to either invest or towards my house. My wife and I are both in stable jobs and very stable professions, and I have $20k worth of credit limit that I could use in a pinch as well as at least $30k of home equity that I could draw on. I know that an emergency fund is important, but I frankly am not going to let money sit in a checking account / money market account when I'm paying interest every month. I will probably put some money aside once my house is paid off, but until then I will likely not accumulate any significant emergency fund. I know I will catch hell for this position, but I feel like I have plenty of options outside of sticking a significant amount of cash in a checking account.
My mortgage rate is currently 5%. I could refinance to get a lower rate, but I don't want to pay the closing to refinance if I can pay it off in a couple of years.
I am still leaning towards prioritizing paying off my mortgage for the following reasons:
I don't buy the "trapped" money argument for someone in my situation - Money is only 'trapped' in your mortgage if you're paying extra on your monthly payments over the course of some long period (i.e. more than 5 years), which is risky because who knows what will happen over the long term. However, if I can pay off my mortgage in two years, I'm only risking two years of "trapped money" since starting in year three I will essentially be receiving annual returns on my investment of about $10K (in the form of no mortgage payment each month). Also, home equity loans are harder to get these days, but they are still available. So if anything happens before I pay off my mortgage, I do take some comfort in the fact that I could draw on the equity in my home.
Flexibility - If I stick the majority of savings in a retirement account, I basically can't touch it until I'm 60. I could be in a situation where I'm in great shape on paper, but I don't really 'feel' my great situation since it's trapped in a retirement account. Once I pay off my mortgage, I will have ultimate flexibility. I can start making up for lost time in terms of saving for retirement, and also start saving money for my next house so that I don't have to sell my current house for a downpayment. I'll be putting myself in a great situation if in 5 years I can put a significant down payment on another home and rent out my current house to essentially cover my new house payment. I will reap the benefits of paying off that mortgage everyday for the rest of my life (including through retirement) as opposed to waiting until I'm 60 to start benefitting.
Market Returns - over the long term, I would almost surely be better off investing since average returns are 8-9%. However, nobody can predict the market in the near term. If I spend the next two years putting my savings into the market (whether through retirement our outside investments) I would say that it is at least as likely that I would get less than a 6.7% return (i.e. the equivalent of my 5% mortgage "returns" grossed up by the 25% taxes I would pay either now or when I retire if through a retirement account) as it is that I would get more than a 6.7% return.
Risk - In terms of a low risk position, I just feel like nothing is less risky than eliminating your biggest monthly expenditure. It creates a windfall and flexibility when times are good, and it helps keep fixed costs at a low level (which IMO is better than an emergency fund) if something bad happens and I don't have any income coming in.
Diversification - I believe this is the biggest downfall of my plan. For the next few years I will have most of my net worth tied up in one asset (my house). I do think this is a risk, but I'm comforted by the fact that we appear to be coming out of a "rock bottom" housing correction. The house that I have was worth approximately double what it is now in the height of the housing boom, so I think there's more room up than there is down and generally housing has been a pretty stable investment. Finally, there is something to having a tangible asset with worth as opposed to paper worth. I realize this is going to sound completely paranoid, but anyone with stocks, significant cash, etc. is essentially investing in the dollar - I like the fact that I have a piece of land with a house on it that is my own. If God forbid we have a real economic crisis, my home has intrinsic value that paper investments do not have.
So those are my thoughts. I am leaning towards paying off my mortgage and honestly I'm a bit surprised that so many folks think it's a bad idea. In my specific situation, it seems almost like a no-brainer.
[*]Market Returns - over the long term, I would almost surely be better off investing since average returns are 8-9%. However, nobody can predict the market in the near term. If I spend the next two years putting my savings into the market (whether through retirement our outside investments) I would say that it is at least as likely that I would get less than a 6.7% return (i.e. the equivalent of my 5% mortgage "returns" grossed up by the 25% taxes I would pay either now or when I retire if through a retirement account) as it is that I would get more than a 6.7% return.
But since your mortgage interest is tax-deductible, you have to compare to 5%, not 6.7%. You can't have it both ways unless even w/ mortgage interest you're still not meeting the standard deduction.
Think about $1,000 dollars. You can either put it toward your house, or put it in the market.
A: You put it toward your house, and thus there is $1,000 less debt accumulating interest, so you save $50 in interest. Only you really only saved $37.50, because you would have gotten 25% of that $50 in interest back in a refund.
B: Put it toward the market. Let's say the market makes 5% that year. You made $50, and now pay taxes on 25% of it. So your net profit was $37.50.
That's why your market returns only have to beat your mortgage rate, not your rate grossed up for taxes.
And that's for regular taxable accounts - obviously you'll fare much better w/ tax-advantaged accounts!
[*]Market Returns - over the long term, I would almost surely be better off investing since average returns are 8-9%. However, nobody can predict the market in the near term. If I spend the next two years putting my savings into the market (whether through retirement our outside investments) I would say that it is at least as likely that I would get less than a 6.7% return (i.e. the equivalent of my 5% mortgage "returns" grossed up by the 25% taxes I would pay either now or when I retire if through a retirement account) as it is that I would get more than a 6.7% return.
Furthermore, I don't understand why you would acknowledge an average of 8-9%, and then turn around and claim there's at least a 50% chance it will be under 6.7%. That doesn't add up from a pure math standpoint, unless you're saying you have a negative short-term outlook for the market, though your post didn't indicate such.
But since your mortgage interest is tax-deductible, you have to compare to 5%, not 6.7%. You can't have it both ways unless even w/ mortgage interest you're still not meeting the standard deduction.
Think about $1,000 dollars. You can either put it toward your house, or put it in the market.
A: You put it toward your house, and thus there is $1,000 less debt accumulating interest, so you save $50 in interest. Only you really only saved $37.50, because you would have gotten 25% of that $50 in interest back in a refund.
B: Put it toward the market. Let's say the market makes 5% that year. You made $50, and now pay taxes on 25% of it. So your net profit was $37.50.
That's why your market returns only have to beat your mortgage rate, not your rate grossed up for taxes.
And that's for regular taxable accounts - obviously you'll fare much better w/ tax-advantaged accounts!
I am not able to deduct my mortgage interest since the standard deduction is a larger benfit for me.
Also, for anyone to get the "full" benefit of the mortgage deduction, you would need to have itemized deductions in excess of the standard deduction without taking into account your mortgage interest - only in that circumstance do you get the full benefit of the mortgage deduction. For example if you have mortgage interest of 12k, no other itemized deductions, and the standard deduction is 11k, you are not getting a deduction worth 25% - you are only getting a dedcution worth 25% of 1k. I believe a lot of folks overestimate the benefit they receive of the mortgage deduction.
And regarding tax advantaged accounts, the only real advantage is a deferral of taxes. So you would still need to take into account the tax impact.
Furthermore, I don't understand why you would acknowledge an average of 8-9%, and then turn around and claim there's at least a 50% chance it will be under 6.7%. That doesn't add up from a pure math standpoint, unless you're saying you have a negative short-term outlook for the market, though your post didn't indicate such.
Agree. I'm not sure what I said makes any sense. It's likely that returns will be in excess of 6.7% (less than the average returns), but the point I was trying to make (and I didn't do a very good job) is that over the short term there is more volatility. If it would take me ten years to pay off my mortgage, I would almost clearly be sacrificing better returns through the market if I put all my cash into my mortgage, but over the short term the market is volatile. Therefore, I don't mind "settling" for a 6.7% 100% certain return on my 2 year investment when I could potentially lose money in the market (or do much better than 6.7%).
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