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Old 02-21-2015, 03:38 PM
 
2,401 posts, read 3,255,451 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
So 90% chance you don't move in three years. If you want to hedge the 10% risk then lease may make sense. You can not hedge against depreciation really. The 100 dollar wouldn't mean much when you sale that vehicle at three years on the heavy depreciation loss in first years plus having paid more interest than principal on any Loan.
Interest is 0.


OP, doesn't sound like you have anything for waiting to buy. I think it makes sense to buy now. Go ahead.
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Old 02-21-2015, 04:48 PM
 
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It's probably close to a wash, but a tad better to wait to buy. 10 months of depreciation is probably about 20% of the vehicle's value in the first year but ignoring the "off the lot hit". If you get 10% off MSRP, then buying now instead of in 10 months is gaining 10% but losing 20%. However your current vehicle is depreciating also, so the net cost of buying now compared to in 10 months is probably not much above $1,000.
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Old 02-22-2015, 02:44 PM
 
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Ok, got the car appraised at Carmax.

It's worth just as much now as it was two years and 15,000 Miles ago, strange. The numbers perfectly match kbb trade-in value.

The difference between trade-in w/tax savings and private party is only $550 in favor of private party (and that's if I get kbb on the private party sale price).

The dealer is giving me 10% off MSRP and 0% APR (contingent on paperwork, but there shouldn't be any surprises there other than the F&I guy trying to add in crap, but he's just wasting his time, I don't want tint, or low jack, or etching, or gap insurance (I really want to see if they offer this as the amount financed will be just 62% of MSRP), or clear coat protection, or extended warranties, or scotch guard, or any other doodad).

Seems like the only things not in favor of "buy now" are the stable value of my current car, my current cars gas mileage, and current cars tire life (they are so new it hurts).

But the car is coming up on a complete fluids change, and I really like the idea of a giant steel bubble around my family.

And I've got to talk it out here so my spouse doesn't think I'm crazy for my wishy-washy attitude towards the new minivan.
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Old 02-22-2015, 02:45 PM
 
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And I'm taking the depreciation hit either way right, pay me now or pay me later.

If I trade now I get a nice new AC and a car with tinted windows for the summer (poor kid was sweaty as can be last summer).
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Old 02-22-2015, 03:06 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDrenter223 View Post
Ok, got the car appraised at Carmax.

It's worth just as much now as it was two years and 15,000 Miles ago, strange. The numbers perfectly match kbb trade-in value.
I'm sure low gas prices matter somewhat - obviously the price of larger (used) vehicles tends to be higher with cheap gas due to being more desirable, and for small vehicles it is the other way around.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MDrenter223 View Post
And I'm taking the depreciation hit either way right, pay me now or pay me later.
Yes, but 4 years and 10 months of depreciation is still 10 months more than 4 years of depreciation. At any point in the future, buying now will mean you have 10 more months of depreciation on the new vehicle (and 10 months less on the old one) than buying in 10 months.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MDrenter223 View Post
If I trade now I get a nice new AC and a car with tinted windows for the summer (poor kid was sweaty as can be last summer).
Oh, bless the poor thing! Well, it's up to you how much you're willing to pay for it. I don't think $1,000 for a summer of new A/C is a bad deal at all...
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Old 02-22-2015, 07:13 PM
 
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Depreciation happens faster in the earlier years than in later years. The advantage of having a car 10 months earlier trumps the depreciation between 4 years and 4 years plus 10 months, IMO.
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Old 02-22-2015, 08:04 PM
 
18,547 posts, read 15,572,959 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AmFest View Post
Depreciation happens faster in the earlier years than in later years. The advantage of having a car 10 months earlier trumps the depreciation between 4 years and 4 years plus 10 months, IMO.
Actually it is the first 10 months of depreciation that are being paid for, not the last 10 months. The alternative to buying now is buying the same make and model in 10 months, not buying an at-the-time brand new car.
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