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Old 07-07-2016, 12:16 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,029 posts, read 7,188,252 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
10% for the S&P 500 is basically saying it won't do anything. The low in February was 1829.

The market hates change. Now that the Presidential election can be predicted with 90% certainty and it's the bought & paid for status quo candidate likely to win, I don't see anything on the horizon that would provoke a big correction. Of course, something external could happen in China or Europe but nobody can predict that.
We're still a little more than 4 months out from the election. Clinton's lead is only 5 points nationally and just 3.5 points in the only states that matter - PA, OH, & FL. That's definitely striking distance for Trump and actually impressive given the massive money advantage Clinton has.

I'm voting 3rd party this year so I don't have a dog in this fight, but it's way too early to make assumptions about the election's outcome. Like I said before, even though I can't stand the guy, I kind of want Trump to win because of the market bargains. If Clinton wins it'll be business as usual as it's been for the past several years with the market probably going sideways.
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Old 07-07-2016, 06:44 PM
 
10,221 posts, read 19,154,272 times
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Goldman doesn't give away _good_ predictions for free.
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Old 07-07-2016, 07:13 PM
 
391 posts, read 289,338 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinking-man View Post
Goldman Expects the S&P 500 to Fall as Much as 10 Percent Before Ending the Year at 2,100.

Reported today 7-6-2016.
Dow started out -100 and 2 hours before closing is up +50 (S&P up to around 2100 currently).


here's the whole piece: Yahoo!

thoughts?


Goldman Sacks did such a wonderful job in 2008 predicting the future.... I'm sure we should all listen with an attentive ear when they put anything on paper.
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Old 07-09-2016, 08:00 AM
 
3,910 posts, read 9,448,086 times
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The markets have fluctuated up and down 10% for the past 2 years. Overall, they have been moving sideways. 10% isn't even news.

Many folks believe that the market is drastically overpriced currently, and that it can't go much higher in the near term. The more likely scenario is that it trades sideways the next 1-2 years, if not declines 10-20%. Then 10 years from now it will shoot way higher.
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Old 07-09-2016, 09:53 AM
 
1,348 posts, read 777,301 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Like I said before, even though I can't stand the guy, I kind of want Trump to win because of the market bargains. If Clinton wins it'll be business as usual as it's been for the past several years with the market probably going sideways.
You are right on the money!
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Old 07-09-2016, 07:15 PM
 
Location: Florida
6,608 posts, read 7,291,546 times
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I would not change what I am doing.
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Old 07-10-2016, 06:45 AM
 
24,541 posts, read 18,118,486 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
We're still a little more than 4 months out from the election. Clinton's lead is only 5 points nationally and just 3.5 points in the only states that matter - PA, OH, & FL. That's definitely striking distance for Trump and actually impressive given the massive money advantage Clinton has.
I need a citation for that. I just Googled and scanned the first half-dozen news stories that all use different polling data. I see nothing less than an 11 point spread anywhere. Is that the Fox News Karl Rove denial poll?

I think the markets reflect the political landscape. The status quo candidate is pretty much a lock. The United States is perceived as a safe haven. China has some major problems. After Brexit, the Italian banks are teetering and Spain & Portugal are being fined by the EU for their uncontrolled budget deficits. Ireland pulled it out of the dumpster but the rest of the PIIGS are in pretty tough shape and will cause more Euro shocks. London getting slammed as a finance center with Brexit only solidifies the stranglehold Wall Street has on global finance. With no interest rate hikes on the horizon and the dollar as the safe currency, all that global money is flowing into the US multinational stocks listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ.
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Old 07-10-2016, 02:49 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,029 posts, read 7,188,252 times
Reputation: 17126
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
I need a citation for that. I just Googled and scanned the first half-dozen news stories that all use different polling data. I see nothing less than an 11 point spread anywhere. Is that the Fox News Karl Rove denial poll?

I think the markets reflect the political landscape. The status quo candidate is pretty much a lock. The United States is perceived as a safe haven. China has some major problems. After Brexit, the Italian banks are teetering and Spain & Portugal are being fined by the EU for their uncontrolled budget deficits. Ireland pulled it out of the dumpster but the rest of the PIIGS are in pretty tough shape and will cause more Euro shocks. London getting slammed as a finance center with Brexit only solidifies the stranglehold Wall Street has on global finance. With no interest rate hikes on the horizon and the dollar as the safe currency, all that global money is flowing into the US multinational stocks listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ.
No, it's for real. Never forget that only 3 states matter in U.S. elections. Since 1900 - that's 116 years and 28 election years, only 1 president has won without winning 2 of the 3 Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida (it was John F. Kennedy 1960).

Also this race, because of the intensely negative views about both candidates, is probably going to feature more of a 3rd party presence. The markets did not predict Brexit and even if they are pricing the election it's too far out for them. From today's Realclearpolitics average: RealClearPolitics - 2016 Latest Polls

National: Clinton +4.2
Florida: Clinton +3.7
Ohio: Clinton +2.5
Pennsylvania: Clinton +2.3

...and those are the states we have decent data on. There is more limited data on New Hampshire and Michigan but what we do have shows a lot closer than 2008 or 2012. Clinton is much less popular than Obama, there's no doubt about that, and there are a lot of people out there that like what Trump says.

Trump could win this thing. Also, inclusion of the libertarian and green candidates seems to reduce Clinton's margins by 0.3 up to 1%, making it potentially even closer. Wall Street liking Clinton is probably a strike against her, not a political benefit. As you can see here, she cannot afford to lose anybody she's got. The Pennsylvania results are the most worrisome from her perspective. Obama in 2012 was up by 6 - three times as much and in 2008 was up by 9 - almost 5 times as much. He won PA by 5.4 points in 2012 and 10.3 points in 2008. John Kerry in the summer of 2004 was doing better in PA - getting about 5-7 point leads. Clinton can NOT like what she's seeing there. (I'm getting all those numbers from RCP's archives - from my first link click on "quick poll/map links")

For the record, I'm voting 3rd party and don't care which of the two of those awful two-party system candidates wins, so there's no need to have a political argument with me here. I'm just saying, the polling data shows this is going to be close, if is to be believed. I tried to post screenshots but it won't let me, so you'll have to click on the links yourself.

Last edited by redguard57; 07-10-2016 at 03:14 PM..
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