Projected Demographics Of Philadelphia Metro? (2030, 2040) (York, Montgomery: gated, moving, suburbs)

[usernamee]

Philadelphia seems to be getting more diverse but it is still segregated in certain sections. A lot of the suburbs seem to be very white but will this change? What will the suburbs be like by 2040? New York used to have white suburbs but now the suburbs of NYC are EXTREMLY diverse so there is still some hope. How about the Hispanic & Asian Population? Will they grow substantially? I heard that Philadelphia will be 1/3 Hispanic in 2040. Also, the Asian Population in the suburbs is growing in Montgomery & Bucks County and the Black Population is growing in Delaware County and other counties and Hispanics are growing slowly but steadily in the city and the suburbs. Any opinions?

[ElijahAstin]

Originally Posted by usernamee

Philadelphia seems to be getting more diverse but it is still segregated in certain sections.

You could say that about any city.

Originally Posted by usernamee

A lot of the suburbs seem to be very white but will this change?

It is changing.

Originally Posted by usernamee

What will the suburbs be like by 2040? New York used to have white suburbs but now the suburbs of NYC are EXTREMLY diverse so there is still some hope.

New York still has white suburbs. In fact, Long Island is one of the most de facto segregated places in the nation.

Originally Posted by usernamee

How about the Hispanic & Asian Population? Will they grow substantially? I heard that Philadelphia will be 1/3 Hispanic in 2040.

The Hispanic and Asian populations probably will grow substantially, but I also highly doubt Philly will be 1/3 Hispanic in 2040.

Originally Posted by usernamee

Also, the Asian Population in the suburbs is growing in Montgomery & Bucks County and the Black Population is growing in Delaware County and other counties and Hispanics are growing slowly but steadily in the city and the suburbs. Any opinions?

Is the black population growing or is it just shifting? I would suspect the latter. There definitely is an emergence of a sizeable, suburban, Asian-American middle class. Philly has never been a top destination for Hispanics. There are a fair amount of Puerto Ricans within the city, but Mexicans, Dominicans, Guatemalans, etc. have traditionally settled elsewhere. Pennsylvania just isn't a big destination for Spanish-speaking immigrants, although this is certainly starting to change. I doubt this change will happen as dramatically or as quickly as you suspect though. Philly isn't a prime immigrant destination like it used to be. Compared to other similarly-sized cities, Philly has a lot of native-born residents.

[gwillyfromphilly]

[quote=HeavenWood;21626079]

The Hispanic and Asian populations probably will grow substantially, but I also highly doubt Philly will be 1/3 Hispanic in 2040.

It could very well happen unless the black percentage of the city increases dramatically.

Is the black population growing or is it just shifting? I would suspect the latter.

An important thing to note is that Philadelphia was one a the few MSAs that didn't see a huge black population decline unlike other metro areas in the Northeast and Midwest. Most cities have seen a great amount black flight to the South. So for the Philadelphia area to maintain a steady black population is impressive in a way.

There definitely is an emergence of a sizeable, suburban, Asian-American middle class.

I agree.

I doubt this change will happen as dramatically or as quickly as you suspect though. Philly isn't a prime immigrant destination like it used to be. Compared to other similarly-sized cities, Philly has a lot of native-born residents.

But Philly is growing at a faster rate than New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago. I expect Philly to continue to attract more and more immigrants as the decades continue.

[ElijahAstin]

Originally Posted by gwillyfromphilly

But Philly is growing at a faster rate than New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago. I expect Philly to continue to attract more and more immigrants as the decades continue.

That would be reversing several generations of precedent, but I suppose it isn't entirely impossible.

[rotodome]

It's definitely growing faster than Chicago, which lost over 200,000 people (-6.9%)in the last census, but Philadelphia (+0.6%) did NOT grow at a higher rate than NYC (+2.1%) or LA (+2.6%) in the last census.

The good thing is that Philly actually did grow, to reverse the trend of decades of population loss.

http://quickfacts.census.gov

[Pine to Vine]

Originally Posted by rotodome

It's definitely growing faster than Chicago, which lost over 200,000 people (-6.9%)in the last census, but Philadelphia (+0.6%) did NOT grow at a higher rate than NYC (+2.1%) or LA (+2.6%) in the last census.

The good thing is that Philly actually did grow, to reverse the trend of decades of population loss.

State and County QuickFacts

Philly's metro grew at a slightly higher rate than all 3 others, however. Based on the 2010 census, the Philly MSA grew at 4.89% compared with Chicago at 3.99%, LA at 3.75% and NY at 3.13%

[rotodome]

My mistake. I was thinking the thread was about the cities, though it does clearly say Metro up there.

[gwillyfromphilly]

Originally Posted by rotodome

It's definitely growing faster than Chicago, which lost over 200,000 people (-6.9%)in the last census, but Philadelphia (+0.6%) did NOT grow at a higher rate than NYC (+2.1%) or LA (+2.6%) in the last census.

The good thing is that Philly actually did grow, to reverse the trend of decades of population loss.

State and County QuickFacts

I was referring more towards Metro area in growth rates in comparison to New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago. As to city proper Philly probably had an slight under count anyway so we won't compare just city limits alone.

[rotodome]

Originally Posted by gwillyfromphilly

I was referring more towards Metro area in growth rates in comparison to New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago. As to city proper Philly probably had an slight under count anyway so we won't compare just city limits alone.

Yes, I realized my mistake as per the thread intent (see the post immediately above yours). Sorry for that misunderstanding.

[Marius Pontmercy]

Originally Posted by HeavenWood

Is the black population growing or is it just shifting? I would suspect the latter. There definitely is an emergence of a sizeable, suburban, Asian-American middle class. Philly has never been a top destination for Hispanics. There are a fair amount of Puerto Ricans within the city, but Mexicans, Dominicans, Guatemalans, etc. have traditionally settled elsewhere. Pennsylvania just isn't a big destination for Spanish-speaking immigrants, although this is certainly starting to change. I doubt this change will happen as dramatically or as quickly as you suspect though. Philly isn't a prime immigrant destination like it used to be. Compared to other similarly-sized cities, Philly has a lot of native-born residents.

I'll agree with you on the first point. The AA population of Philly is not growing, it's just moving from North and West Philly propers into the lower NE, lower Bucks County and lower Delaware County, or out of the region altogether. The city itself actually hasn't seen growth in the AA community since the 1970s, but as a total percentage of population blacks make up more because whites continued to leave.

For your second point I would say that Philly is a destination for Spanish speaking immigrants. Much of Philadelphia's growth was made up of that group of immigrants. Asians, also, I think are going to make up a larger percentage of the city's population.

Looking ahead we're definitely moving from a black/white city to a plurality city.