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Old 04-08-2012, 11:58 AM
 
1,031 posts, read 2,701,546 times
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I have my thoughts but I'll wait for a few responses.
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Old 04-08-2012, 12:37 PM
 
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I think more areas will continue to improve, especially S.Philly and the area around Temple. However, other areas will continue to deteriorate as well, such as the lower Northeast. I think the tax base will expand due to more affluent residents moving in, resulting in a better financial position for the city. The city should use its new revenues to reduce the most burdensome of its taxes, especially the business taxes. However, I am guessing the leadership will instead squander the funds on wasteful and useless programs, keeping the business climate undesirable for years to come. Ultimately the appeal of city living to younger folks will overcome the best efforts of the local government to undermine progress with excessive taxes and social programs, and Philadelphia will be on track to achieve the appeal of cities like Boston and NY.
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Old 04-08-2012, 12:53 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
8,700 posts, read 14,623,623 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SGirard View Post
I think more areas will continue to improve, especially S.Philly and the area around Temple. However, other areas will continue to deteriorate as well, such as the lower Northeast. I think the tax base will expand due to more affluent residents moving in, resulting in a better financial position for the city. The city should use its new revenues to reduce the most burdensome of its taxes, especially the business taxes. However, I am guessing the leadership will instead squander the funds on wasteful and useless programs, keeping the business climate undesirable for years to come. Ultimately the appeal of city living to younger folks will overcome the best efforts of the local government to undermine progress with excessive taxes and social programs, and Philadelphia will be on track to achieve the appeal of cities like Boston and NY.
I agree with this except for the business tax. They are revamping the business tax as we speak and I think we will see a new tax within a few years that will draw a few companies to the city. The completion of the high speed rail from Amtrak that will put Center City Philadelphia and Manhattan only 38 minutes apart will start an explosion of both business growth and residential growth for Philadelphia that will put us back over the 2 million population count. Lastly in 20-30 years all of South Philadelphia will be gentrified, all of Lower North Philadelphia will, Germantown and some other areas of the Lower Northwest and the areas of North Philadelphia that border the Northwest will be gentrified (maybe even areas like Strawberry Mansion and such that will connect the Northwest to Lower North Philadelphia and Center City. Lastly a large majority of West Philadelphia will be gentrified especially around University City and Fairmount Park connected Gentrification with the far West such as places along City Ave. around St Josephs.

The ghettos of Philly in 20-30 years will be Upper North Philadelphia, some parts of the Lower Northeast (I don't think the Northeast will see anymore areas decline outside of the areas that are already declining) and Southwest Philadelphia. Crime will start to get better though and I see less and less crime every decade.

We will also see probably two Supertalls built in Philly
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Old 04-08-2012, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Norristown
10 posts, read 24,635 times
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Don't wish harm on any city, but out of all the cities on the east coast, philly is the safest to live in when one factors in natural disasters. The way the world is acting these last past years I wouldn't be surprised if a major disaster like an earthquake shifted the dynamic of population change throughout the United States. This is all hypothetical however. I agree with what everybody else said though.
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Old 04-08-2012, 05:26 PM
 
Location: South Jersey
7,780 posts, read 21,798,822 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SGirard View Post
I think more areas will continue to improve, especially S.Philly and the area around Temple. However, other areas will continue to deteriorate as well, such as the lower Northeast. I think the tax base will expand due to more affluent residents moving in, resulting in a better financial position for the city. The city should use its new revenues to reduce the most burdensome of its taxes, especially the business taxes. However, I am guessing the leadership will instead squander the funds on wasteful and useless programs, keeping the business climate undesirable for years to come. Ultimately the appeal of city living to younger folks will overcome the best efforts of the local government to undermine progress with excessive taxes and social programs, and Philadelphia will be on track to achieve the appeal of cities like Boston and NY.
I agree with this view.. Except the bad part of the NE is going to be larger then the lower NE part..
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Old 04-08-2012, 06:54 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
343 posts, read 930,145 times
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Philadelphia will change significantly in the upcoming decade, and the changes will be perhaps as substantial as they were in the past 10 years.

Not all changes will be for the better, and certain segments of the population may suffer more than others. Specifically, poor black families living in marginalized neighborhoods may continue to experience discrimination and many may be forced to move outside of the city as cost of living increases as a result of gentrification. That being said, I believe that most of the changes that occur in Philadelphia in the next 10 years will be positive for the city on the whole.

Some specific predictions:

1) Large parts of South Philadelphia will improve, in both physical character and safety. As was seen in the graduate Hospital neighborhood in the 2000s, the areas south of washington and west of broad will get more expensive, more hip, and less dangerous. We can already see this occurring, as new houses have been constructed and renovated on Ellsworth and Federal. By 2022, gentrification will have completely passed Washington avenue and will have occurred as far south as Tasker or Morris. Don't believe me? People also thought the area south of south was a lost cause as recently as 1998.

2) The 'Loft District' north of chinatown will change from a 'hip but sketchy' enclave to a 'pleasant and walkable' neighborhood with streetside businesses, a 'high-line-style' park, and expensive lofts and condos. Nearly all construction in the 'Callowhill' neighborhood has occurred in the past 5 years, and more will continue as it crosses the threshold.

3) The University of Pennsylvania will spill into Center City. Penn is an enormous Ivy League juggernaut, with seemingly unlimited funds and nearly constant construction. Nearly everything in its domain west of the schuylkill has been developed into university land, with much of the construction near the schuylkill occurring in the past 3-5 years (Penn Park, new medical laboratories). If Penn decides to expand further, it may need to do so on the other side of the river, perhaps to the area currently occupied by a power plant that may be out of there soon.

4) The neighborhoods currently known as Northern Liberties and Fishtown will become posh enclaves for 20-30 something urban professionals. Although these areas are currently inhabited primarily by a lower-income creative class (Fishtown at least), their proximity to the EL and the preponderance of inexpensive housing will draw interest from developers. 10 years ago, Northern Liberties was a run-down, post-industrial pool of urban decay. Today, it is a trendy enclave with expensive restaurants, hip bars, and affluent families. Fishtown seems to be following a similar trend, but with perhaps a better existing housing infrastructure. These two neighborhoods will be among the most expensive in Philadelphia in 2022.

5) The crime rate for the city will decline substantially in the next 10 years. The decline will be more rapid than for the US as a whole, and will move philadelphia from among the most dangerous cities to rather average in terms of crime. As neighborhoods improve and the city receives an infusion from a larger and more affluent tax base, perhaps public money can aid struggling neighborhoods hit hard by deindustrialization and depopulation that occurred in the 1970s-1990s.

6) The composition of Philly's population will become increasingly diverse. The race-ethnic breakdown, the socioeconomic composition, and the occupational distribution of the city will change substantially, with an increasing focus on white-collar industries such as education, research, banking, and the arts. New immigrant communities will develop, with an increasing population from Mexico, and larger enclaves of East Asian immigrants becoming established. The fraction of blacks and whites in the population may decline slightly, as new groups enter the city. Unfortunately, lower-income families, faced with no other choice, may be forced to leave their neighborhoods for less expensive suburbs in Delaware County. Hopefully, the city can work with these communities to dampen the negative effects of rapid gentrification.
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Old 04-08-2012, 10:02 PM
 
Location: Philly
10,220 posts, read 16,745,297 times
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I doubt one family has been pushed out because of "gentrification." the reality is, the poverty level is higher today than ten years ago, philadelphia is big enough that gentrification will not push anyone out of the city as a whole. there will be no 38 min trip to ny in ten years, if we're lucky, the trip will be five minutes faster but cheaper (and hence more accessible) and more frequent.
1)neighborhoods will begin to run together, spring garden/fville and northern liberties will fill in the gaps between them, fville and templetown, renovations in brewertytown. revitalization west from broad and south from washington ave will meet. revitalization isn't gentrification.
2) anemic job GROWTH will come to philadelphia, a positive step
3) steady but not impressive decrease in overall crime, trash and education will make marginal gains holding the city back since these are really the keys to rapid growth
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Old 04-08-2012, 10:08 PM
 
Location: University City, Philadelphia
22,634 posts, read 14,872,988 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SGirard View Post
I think more areas will continue to improve, especially S.Philly and the area around Temple.
My area - University City - has already been improving. New construction is going on everywhere at Drexel and UPenn. A New 12 story Hilton Hotel at 42nd and Walnut. The New multi-story LeBow Business School of Drexel at 33rd and Market. UPenn's new Wistar Institute has started construction.
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Old 04-08-2012, 10:10 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
133 posts, read 274,777 times
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I just hope the Lower Northeast doesn't turn into a complete ghetto, like many people are projecting and have been projecting for years. Fortunately, I live in Rhawnhurst, which is still fairly nice when compared to places like Oxford Cirlce and Lawncrest. I also don't think the Far Northeast is completely immune. Buselton already has quite a few shady apartment complexes and several areas of the Far Northeast (like Morrell Park) contain a lot of rowhomes that are not located near quick transportation to Center City.

It will be interesting to see what happens to West Kensington/Fairhill (aka The Badlands). Right now, the area is a complete dump, riddled with drug addicts and prostitutes. However, it appears that some low-income creative types are moving into Kensington. I just wonder if they will be able to break the West Kensington mold and gentrify that neighborhood. I'm not sure that it will happen and it certainly could take more than 10 years.
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Old 04-08-2012, 10:29 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
343 posts, read 930,145 times
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Originally Posted by pman View Post
I doubt one family has been pushed out because of "gentrification."
Certainly some families are pushed out because of gentrification. Whether this happens forcefully, whether it occurs because they can no longer afford the rent or property taxes, or whether they decide to sell their house and make a killing when property values rise, we have to acknowledge that neighborhood change also leads to demographic shifts, not all of which are completely equitable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pman View Post
revitalization isn't gentrification.
No, but since there's very little input or financial means of revitalization from the city of philadelphia, gentrification has been the primary force leading to neighborhood revitalization. If you can name a neighborhood in Philadelphia that has been revitalized by some other factor (as the principal means), I'd be open to the suggestion.
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