African-American population in Philadelphia: Increasing or Declining? (Sharon, Yeadon: 2015, neighborhoods)

[Blimp]

Mod note: This thread was started in 2015

People widely assume that black people are being pushed out of Philadelphia as gentrification occurs and once-blighted neighborhoods become much safer and the underlying housing stock becomes more valuable. But the Census numbers tell a different story, one of the black population increasing in share rather than decreasing.

But here are the stats:
2000 census: 43.2% of Philadelphia was black or African-American.
2010 census: 43.6% of Philadelphia was black or African-American.
2014 Community Survey: 44.2% of Philly is black or African-American.

So I ask, why is this? And, does anyone have predictions for the 2020 census?

[FamousBlueRaincoat]

Philadelphia is a much bigger city than many people realize.

[thwanko]

iirc, the non-hispanic black population did actually decline in Philly between 2000-2010, although by a basically negligible amount that was made up for by the increase in black latinos. It is noticeably different than the pattern in cities like Chicago and Detroit, which saw massive drops in their black populations, for whatever reason.

[phillydominican]

In raw numbers, I think the nonHispanic black population will slightly increase, but cuz other groups and the city overall will grow at a faster rate, the nonHispanic black percentage will drop a bit.

[otters21]

I believe that the non Hispanic black population will continue to decrease . A lot are moving out or moved to inner suburbs such as Collingdale, East Lansdowne, Upper Darby, Sharon Hill Yeadon , Darby proper in Delaware County as West Philly gets gentrified and also into Cheltenham in Montgomery County. Also as the minority population continues to push further up in Northeast Philly I believe they will eventually move over the city line into Lower Bucks County. It would be the Hispanic ( especially Mexicans and other Central Americans ) and Asians that will see decent increase . Also their will be a SLIGHT increase in the non Hispanic white population as the inner neighborhoods closer to Center City gentrify. However as long as the public schools stay dismal and do not improve dramatically the non Hispanic white population will not reach majority again and any Caucasion increase will not be the old school ethnics that were prevalent in yesteryear.

[Blimp]

Originally Posted by otters21

any Caucasion increase will not be the old school ethnics that were prevalent in yesteryear.

That is for certain. They'll be mostly younger, often gayer, and always wealthier, as in NY, SF, LA, etc. Fewer if any kids.

[phillydominican]

Originally Posted by otters21

I believe that the non Hispanic black population will continue to decrease . A lot are moving out or moved to inner suburbs such as Collingdale, East Lansdowne, Upper Darby, Sharon Hill Yeadon , Darby proper in Delaware County as West Philly gets gentrified and also into Cheltenham in Montgomery County. Also as the minority population continues to push further up in Northeast Philly I believe they will eventually move over the city line into Lower Bucks County. It would be the Hispanic ( especially Mexicans and other Central Americans ) and Asians that will see decent increase . Also their will be a SLIGHT increase in the non Hispanic white population as the inner neighborhoods closer to Center City gentrify. However as long as the public schools stay dismal and do not improve dramatically the non Hispanic white population will not reach majority again and any Caucasion increase will not be the old school ethnics that were prevalent in yesteryear.

I think the Puerto Rican/Dominican population will increase alot faster then the mexican/central american population. I think by the 2020 census , Philadelphia will about 17 or 18% Hispanic, 11% Puerto Rican alone, and another 4% evenly split by dominicans n mexicans. Even tho, there are more mexicans then dominicans in the country, by 2020 dominicans will solidly be the 2nd dominent hispanic group in the northeast region, with many going to other cities in the region other then newyork. And, there is currently a masssive migration of Puerto Ricans from PR to the mainland, and the Philly area is one of the most popular destinations. Also mexican immigration to the US is declining, it aint as big as between 1980-2010, due to many reasons.

[Blimp]

Originally Posted by phillydominican

Even tho, there are more mexicans then dominicans in the country, by 2020 dominicans will solidly be the 2nd dominent hispanic group in the northeast region, with many going to other cities in the region other then newyork.

Do Dominicans consider themselves to be "black hispanic"? Specifically, I'm wondering the how non-hispanic black population is declining slightly in Philly, but the overall black population is increasing.

Are Dominicans the answer?

[phillydominican]

Originally Posted by Blimp

Do Dominicans consider themselves to be "black hispanic"? Specifically, I'm wondering the how non-hispanic black population is declining slightly in Philly, but the overall black population is increasing.

Are Dominicans the answer?

Yea , mostly both Puerto Ricans and Dominicans. By 2020, Philly will probably be 11% Puerto Rican and 2% Dominican, 15-25% of both these groups in the city already self-identify as black hispanic, thats about 2-3.5% black hispanic. So if Philly has a population of 1.59 million by 2020 , and is 41% non hispanic black (651,000/41% nh blacks, compared to 644,000/42.2% in 2010)the raw number will increase slighty but the percentage will go down slighty. 41% non hispanic black and 2.6% black hispanic by 2020, 43.6% all together.

[nycricanpapi]

Originally Posted by phillydominican

I think the Puerto Rican/Dominican population will increase alot faster then the mexican/central american population. I think by the 2020 census , Philadelphia will about 17 or 18% Hispanic, 11% Puerto Rican alone, and another 4% evenly split by dominicans n mexicans. Even tho, there are more mexicans then dominicans in the country, by 2020 dominicans will solidly be the 2nd dominent hispanic group in the northeast region, with many going to other cities in the region other then newyork. And, there is currently a masssive migration of Puerto Ricans from PR to the mainland, and the Philly area is one of the most popular destinations. Also mexican immigration to the US is declining, it aint as big as between 1980-2010, due to many reasons.

Mexicans population declining? No way lol. Probably in Philly but not in the US. According to the Census there are more Latinos (Mexicans) than White people now in California.

It's official: Latinos now outnumber whites in California - LA Times

There will be a major growth of Mexicans.. I do not see it declining anytime soon.