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The Philadelphia Business Journal last Thursday came out with its list of the hottest housing markets in the region, classified by ZIP code.
(ZIP codes, as we know, do not neatly conform to municipal, community or neighborhood boundaries, but they are the geographic subdivisions that come closest to standing in for them.)
One of the things I found interesting about the list was that seven of the 10 hottest were in the city limits - and four of those were not neighborhoods I'd class as gentrifying, at least not yet.
I've got a link to the article below, but since it's a link to subscriber-only content, you may not be able to read it. So I'm going to list the 10 hottest ZIP codes according to the Business Journal, which scored them according to "a composite score provided by American City Business Journals," PBJ's parent, based on house value and inventory data from Zillow. What follows the ZIP code is the name of the neighborhood, the median house value, the one- and five-year changes in value, and the one-year change in inventory level.)
1. 19146 (Graduate Hospital, northern Point Breeze)
Median house value, $251,800 (13.68%, 11.98%, -37.39%)
2. 19125 (Fishtown)
Median house value, $232,600 (14.37%, 10.595, -1.65%)
3. 19122 (South Kensington, eastern North Central Philadelphia)
Median house value, $162,000 (10.66%, 7.15%, 18.18%)
4. 19143 (Kingsessing)
Median house value, $71,100 (13.91%, 3.84%, -36.84%)
5. 19145 (southern Point Breeze, Girard Estate, Packer Park)
Median house value, $171,400 (13.14%, 8.54%, 4.84%)
6. 19144 (Germantown, part of East Falls)
Median house value, $128,800 (13.68%, 3.97%, -30.37%)
7. 18972 (Bridgeton Township, Bucks County)
Median house value: $336,900 (11.59%, 4.36%, -7.89%)
8. 19012 (Cheltenham, Cheltenham Township, Montgomery County)
Median house value: $219,700 (9.4%, 2.18%, -42.11%)
9. 19151 (Overbrook Farms, Overbrook Park, Greenhill Farms)
Median house value: $135,100 (13.91%, 4.74%, -42.15%)
10. 19444 (Whitemarsh Township, Montgomery County)
Median house value: $375,000 (6.44%, 2.54%, 0%)
Other city ZIPs in the top 20 include 19139 (West Philadelphia, Cobbs Creek, #13), 19148 (Whitman, Pennsport, East Passyunk Crossing, #15), 19124 (Frankford, #16), 19129 (East Falls, #17) and 19149 (Oxford Circle, Castor Gardens, #19).
Do you see any patterns in these rankings or figures? I sure don't. Median values are all over the map, though none of these ZIP codes has particularly high-priced housing (Whitemarsh maybe excepted). So are the trendlines and inventory stats. For all I know, ACBJ could have dumped the data into a mixing bowl and produced number salad. Since the formula isn't explained, I have a hard time figuring out why these neighborhoods and not others.
I was recently asked by a local brokerage to offer my predictions for "Hottest [City] Neighborhoods of 2020." Neighborhoods in two of the three top-10 ZIP codes were in my predictions. Can you guess which two? I named three in all; what was the third?
One thing that's interesting, at least for the city zip codes, is the difference between the 1 year and 5 year changes in value, and the corresponding drop in inventory. Germantown, Kingsessing, and Overbrook may be poised for the same trends that have been true for Fishtown, south Kensington, and south Point Breeze, which may have plateaued or at least stabilized. Grad Hospital is more of an outlier, at least in inventory. Cheltenham sort of fits that pattern too of a possible area on the rise. Bridgeton and Whitemarsh might just have too few sales where a couple of big prices might have skewed the stats.
The last 25 house sold in Bridesburg have averaged out to 166k. That's not too shabby for a white ghetto that's "too far from Center City."
I thought the Overbrook area would be much higher than it is. And I can only imagine Frankford being 'hot' for slumlords.
You didn't posit it as an answer to my question, but Bridesburg was the one neighborhood not on this list that I included in my three "Hot Neighborhoods of 2020." Lack of transit access would ordinarily be a counterindicator, but I do think the neighborhood's relative isolation, as you suggest, would make it appealing to a certain class of buyer.
Now, what were the two that were?
Edited to add: I could see some would-be house-flippers buying properties in Frankford as a means of getting their feet wet in the business.
The Philadelphia Business Journal last Thursday came out with its list of the hottest housing markets in the region, classified by ZIP code.
(ZIP codes, as we know, do not neatly conform to municipal, community or neighborhood boundaries, but they are the geographic subdivisions that come closest to standing in for them.)
One of the things I found interesting about the list was that seven of the 10 hottest were in the city limits - and four of those were not neighborhoods I'd class as gentrifying, at least not yet.
I've got a link to the article below, but since it's a link to subscriber-only content, you may not be able to read it. So I'm going to list the 10 hottest ZIP codes according to the Business Journal, which scored them according to "a composite score provided by American City Business Journals," PBJ's parent, based on house value and inventory data from Zillow. What follows the ZIP code is the name of the neighborhood, the median house value, the one- and five-year changes in value, and the one-year change in inventory level.)
1. 19146 (Graduate Hospital, northern Point Breeze)
Median house value, $251,800 (13.68%, 11.98%, -37.39%)
2. 19125 (Fishtown)
Median house value, $232,600 (14.37%, 10.595, -1.65%)
3. 19122 (South Kensington, eastern North Central Philadelphia)
Median house value, $162,000 (10.66%, 7.15%, 18.18%)
4. 19143 (Kingsessing)
Median house value, $71,100 (13.91%, 3.84%, -36.84%)
5. 19145 (southern Point Breeze, Girard Estate, Packer Park)
Median house value, $171,400 (13.14%, 8.54%, 4.84%)
6. 19144 (Germantown, part of East Falls)
Median house value, $128,800 (13.68%, 3.97%, -30.37%)
7. 18972 (Bridgeton Township, Bucks County)
Median house value: $336,900 (11.59%, 4.36%, -7.89%)
8. 19012 (Cheltenham, Cheltenham Township, Montgomery County)
Median house value: $219,700 (9.4%, 2.18%, -42.11%)
9. 19151 (Overbrook Farms, Overbrook Park, Greenhill Farms)
Median house value: $135,100 (13.91%, 4.74%, -42.15%)
10. 19444 (Whitemarsh Township, Montgomery County)
Median house value: $375,000 (6.44%, 2.54%, 0%)
Other city ZIPs in the top 20 include 19139 (West Philadelphia, Cobbs Creek, #13), 19148 (Whitman, Pennsport, East Passyunk Crossing, #15), 19124 (Frankford, #16), 19129 (East Falls, #17) and 19149 (Oxford Circle, Castor Gardens, #19).
Do you see any patterns in these rankings or figures? I sure don't. Median values are all over the map, though none of these ZIP codes has particularly high-priced housing (Whitemarsh maybe excepted). So are the trendlines and inventory stats. For all I know, ACBJ could have dumped the data into a mixing bowl and produced number salad. Since the formula isn't explained, I have a hard time figuring out why these neighborhoods and not others.
I was recently asked by a local brokerage to offer my predictions for "Hottest [City] Neighborhoods of 2020." Neighborhoods in two of the three top-10 ZIP codes were in my predictions. Can you guess which two? I named three in all; what was the third?
Housing Markets in Positive Flux, which may include, but is not limited to, "hot" real estate markets, may be a better (and ultimately more insightful) way of viewing this list. Grad Hospital, Fishtown, Kensington, and Point Breeze are certainly hot. It also makes sense for Kingsessing to experience positive spillover from Spruce Hill and Clark Park (and perhaps even Grays Ferry across the Schuylkill).
Turning to the latter half of the list, it makes sense that prospective Northwest Philadelphia residents would see Germantown's appeal as a good-value middle neighborhood (to use one of your terms). Perhaps due in part to Philadelphia University and Penn Charter, East Falls has consistently had a smattering from most portions of the socioeconomic spectrum; both Ed Rendell and Arlen Specter have called it home during parts of their political careers. But it could still stand to gain additional recognition as a solid and well-located city neighborhood, IMO. Most of East Falls is covered by 19129, so I wonder how much the neighborhood's Northwest corner can be credited for the rise of 19144. It probably helps at least somewhat, since 19129 is also in the top 20.
Jumping slightly out of order, I view Overbrook as having both East Falls and Germantown-like elements: a great location, proximity to perennially established (and expensive) neighbohoods, and a mixture of dicey and stable areas, including some expensive real estate in Overbrook Farms, which has always been acknowledged as a bright spot. St. Joe's has had more of a direct effect on Wynnefield, but it could probably do some good for Overbrook too, in the years to come. Most of the "changed" parts of Overbrook had shifted well before my time, but I remember the Kaiserman JCC camp van looping through Overbrook Park to pick up campers in the late '90s. By the early '00s, most of them had crossed City Line into Penn Wynne or Havertown.
The inclusion of Southeastern Cheltenham Township is a refreshing counterpoint to a narrative of an inner ring suburb that, while by no means bad (and in some areas still quite good), has fallen considerably from its peak in the mid-'70s, with a waning school district and increasingly killer property taxes that further depress real estate values. While there is little active white flight (unlike the rapid-fire blockbusting in Cedar Brook/Far East Mt. Airy that fueled some of its mid-century growth), the white population has steadily decreased as empty nesters age and their children settle down in more distant and desirable suburbs up Old York Road and Route 309. That gives Cheltenham a better chance than most to settle into a stable multi-ethnic area, as supposedly "doomed" sections of the Northeast now seem to be.
I'm not personally familiar with Bridgeton Township, but it seems suited for people who want a rural environment and land on the cheap, and are willing to brave the commute to more distant and congested job markets. According to the most recent American Community Survey, 60% of in-workforce residents work in-state, but only 20% of in-state workers commute outside of Bucks County, indicating that the Lehigh Valley is a secondary draw at best. The 40% out-of-state work rate points to Central Jersey suburban office park hubs, Bridgewater being the nearest. I'm sure some brave the park and/or ride to New York as well.
Whitemarsh (really, Lafayette Hill, which also covers parts of the Springfield Township panhandle) became a well-established suburb in the '50s through '70s, stalled a bit until the '80s, and then experienced a minor residential boom in the '90s, before settling down, once again. In comparison with its other suburban neighbors, Whitemarsh has a lot of open space ripe for development. Most of this developable land is in the outer reaches of the Township, within the Fort Washington and Flourtown zip codes. However, several new residential developments--one quite large--are being constructed in Northwestern corner of Lafayette Hill, which remained undeveloped as the rest of the zip code filled up and down from Ridge Pike. So Lafayette Hill's inclusion really isn't so random (or skewed by a couple recent sales), and could be the sign of a third wave of new construction.
My parents dies last year after living in GF for their entire life. I inherited the house and without even listing it, I get weekly calls from realtors who would gladly help "ease my burden and take it off my hands" knowing the value goes up $6000 every 5 months. I remodeled and rented for a great price.
You didn't posit it as an answer to my question, but Bridesburg was the one neighborhood not on this list that I included in my three "Hot Neighborhoods of 2020." Lack of transit access would ordinarily be a counterindicator, but I do think the neighborhood's relative isolation, as you suggest, would make it appealing to a certain class of buyer.
Now, what were the two that were?
Edited to add: I could see some would-be house-flippers buying properties in Frankford as a means of getting their feet wet in the business.
Cobbs Creek is the other (it's in the top 20 but not the top 10).
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Grays Ferry
