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Old 01-05-2019, 11:56 AM
 
465 posts, read 369,614 times
Reputation: 722

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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilliesPhan2013 View Post
Snip ...

If we can keep the positive trends and job/population growth going, then the 2020s will be a very interesting decade for the city. I'm expecting Strawberry Mansion, East Parkside, Belmont, and parts of Kingsessing to undergo revitalization. There aren't explicitly bad parts of South Philly anymore, so I expect it to continue to densify and grow wealthier. I think that development will eventually jump across Lehigh Ave and reach at least Somerset Street, the area around Tioga will continue to become its own little enclave due to all the industrial loft conversions, and I believe that Frankford certainly has the bones to become revitalized. Cobbs Creek and some of the neighborhoods north of Market Street in West Philly will be interesting to watch, as will Germantown.
It appears that there is already the very earliest stages of gentrification occurring at the periphery of Strawberry Mansion, Kingsessing and East Parkside. Germantown isnít going to have any significant change as long as there is ample supply of moderately priced housing nearby in safer neighborhoods such as East Mt. Airy and Roxborough.


Quote:
Originally Posted by 7thgen View Post
Snip ... all cities will follow the path of DC & Boston over the past decade where virtually the whole city has become revitalized.

With the number of people from our generations, millennials & gen Z, that are looking to live in a city, its bound to happen in Philly as well. Philly is just a laggard and it always has been
Philadelphia has nearly three time Bostonís land area and twice DCís. It doesnít have the job or income growth to become a boutique city like either of those two cities given its much larger footprint.


Quote:
Originally Posted by RUGGLES99 View Post
What's interesting is that the ye olde American dream -- a house in the 'burbs, a station wagon, is fast dying, with the new breed, generations such as millennials and z, etc. If you live in certain suburbs today and are trying to sell, it's getting tougher because young couples today want the urban life, don't want the care and feeding of lawns etc, and would rather bike than own and care for a car when there's uber and lyft. the world as we know it is fast changing,
Millennials are overwhelmingly responsible for current suburban population growth and the suburbs are where the vast majority of US population growth is occurring. Millennials movement to the suburbs was delayed compared to previous generations but they are nonetheless settling in the suburbs in enormous numbers. The predicted demise of the suburbs has always been a fantasy.


Quote:
Originally Posted by 7thgen View Post
Couldn't agree more. My parents live in a suburb in South Jersey and it's progressively getting worse. They'll have a hard time selling when they decide to leave behind the burbs and go somewhere warm for retirement.
South Jersey suffers from being on the wrong side of a river in a low growth metro. Most of the Philly metroís job growth is in the northern and western suburbs. As long as that is the case South Jersey real estate prices are going to suffer outside of a limited number of desirable inner ring burbs such as Haddonfield and Cherry Hill which are close to Center City and U City which are the other centers of job growth in the region.
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Old 01-05-2019, 12:14 PM
 
6,381 posts, read 6,775,826 times
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I agree with everything BR Valentine said. Not that anyone else is wrong. But I certainly don't think the above post is wrong either.
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Old Yesterday, 01:27 PM
 
Location: Fishtown, Philadelphia
7 posts, read 2,258 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BR Valentine View Post
It appears that there is already the very earliest stages of gentrification occurring at the periphery of Strawberry Mansion, Kingsessing and East Parkside. Germantown isnít going to have any significant change as long as there is ample supply of moderately priced housing nearby in safer neighborhoods such as East Mt. Airy and Roxborough.



Philadelphia has nearly three time Bostonís land area and twice DCís. It doesnít have the job or income growth to become a boutique city like either of those two cities given its much larger footprint.



Millennials are overwhelmingly responsible for current suburban population growth and the suburbs are where the vast majority of US population growth is occurring. Millennials movement to the suburbs was delayed compared to previous generations but they are nonetheless settling in the suburbs in enormous numbers. The predicted demise of the suburbs has always been a fantasy.



South Jersey suffers from being on the wrong side of a river in a low growth metro. Most of the Philly metroís job growth is in the northern and western suburbs. As long as that is the case South Jersey real estate prices are going to suffer outside of a limited number of desirable inner ring burbs such as Haddonfield and Cherry Hill which are close to Center City and U City which are the other centers of job growth in the region.
Philly definitely has a lot more land area compared to Boston & DC. I'm not calling for Philly to become a boutique city. All I'm saying is the velocity of revitalization in those cities will continue to spread to forgotten cities like Chicago, Detriot & Philly. Your bias for suburbs makes my bias for city living seem acute. You are delusional if you think the demise of the suburbs is and always will be a fantasy. I'm sure you'll send over some articles that key up your confirmation bias but at the end of the day, based on demographics and data that isn't media-based, suburbs aren't growing at the rate cities are revitalizing. Millennials can't afford the supplemental costs that come with suburban life. Nor do many want to mow a lawn or pile the kids into their modernized version of their parent's favorite gas guzzling SUV to commute to work and school.

The factors that play into this are aplenty - cities being technological hubs where jobs are, millennials carrying obscene amounts of debt which is causing them to abandon the cost of car ownership and embrace public transportation, the overwhelming majority of millennials & gen Z who believe in climate change and care about their impact so they ride bikes to work or hop on the metro, buying smaller houses like the smaller, working-class homes of Old Fishtown & Riverside, the list goes on and on. I doubt you'll want to hear it so I won't bother to keep going. The white picket fence dream is dead for the vast majority of America's largest generation, whether you realize it or not.
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Old Yesterday, 04:30 PM
 
1,081 posts, read 1,828,898 times
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Older Millennials are moving to the suburbs for the same reason that prior generations moved to the suburbs . . . they have kids, and they need the space and schools that only the suburbs can provide. Many prior generations said they would never live in the suburbs where they were raised, yet here we all are. . . over-sized lawns, SUVs, finished basements, plastic siding, and all. Why? We did it for our kids. Millennials will by-and-large do the same thing once they have children.
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Old Yesterday, 08:48 PM
 
465 posts, read 369,614 times
Reputation: 722
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7thgen View Post
Philly definitely has a lot more land area compared to Boston & DC. I'm not calling for Philly to become a boutique city. All I'm saying is the velocity of revitalization in those cities will continue to spread to forgotten cities like Chicago, Detriot & Philly. Your bias for suburbs makes my bias for city living seem acute. You are delusional if you think the demise of the suburbs is and always will be a fantasy. I'm sure you'll send over some articles that key up your confirmation bias but at the end of the day, based on demographics and data that isn't media-based, suburbs aren't growing at the rate cities are revitalizing. Millennials can't afford the supplemental costs that come with suburban life. Nor do many want to mow a lawn or pile the kids into their modernized version of their parent's favorite gas guzzling SUV to commute to work and school.

The factors that play into this are aplenty - cities being technological hubs where jobs are, millennials carrying obscene amounts of debt which is causing them to abandon the cost of car ownership and embrace public transportation, the overwhelming majority of millennials & gen Z who believe in climate change and care about their impact so they ride bikes to work or hop on the metro, buying smaller houses like the smaller, working-class homes of Old Fishtown & Riverside, the list goes on and on. I doubt you'll want to hear it so I won't bother to keep going. The white picket fence dream is dead for the vast majority of America's largest generation, whether you realize it or not.
I don’t have a bias for suburbs. I love cities, Philly in particular. Unlike so many of the suburban raised “OMG cities are the bestest things ever” millennials I grew up in a city and spent most of my life living in cities. I’m merely pointing out the facts as opposed to living in fantasy land. More millennials live in suburbs than cities already. All the breathless articles about the end of the suburbs a decade ago in which the authors made no effort to hide their schadenfreude were wishcasting and it’s still wishcasting in 2019.

I think a realistic assessment is that a greater portion of millennials will live in cities than the previous couple of generations for a variety of reasons among them preferences and the likelihood that a greater portion of millennials won’t have children. But for those millennials who have children they are following a familiar pattern of settling in the suburbs in large numbers. The fact is that most millennials can’t afford private school, aren’t willing to deal with navigating the charter and public school systems and can’t afford the number of square feet of housing that they want in a desirable urban neighborhood. Those factors are why inner ring suburban school districts such as Springfield and Lower Merion have had enrollment boomlets this decade. The school age population in Philadelphia is still declining. Presumably it will level off at some point.

And no the suburbs aren’t dead for an entire generation no matter how badly you want to delude yourself in to wishing it so.
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Old Yesterday, 08:52 PM
 
4,352 posts, read 3,386,030 times
Reputation: 1892
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7thgen View Post
Philly definitely has a lot more land area compared to Boston & DC. I'm not calling for Philly to become a boutique city. All I'm saying is the velocity of revitalization in those cities will continue to spread to forgotten cities like Chicago, Detriot & Philly. Your bias for suburbs makes my bias for city living seem acute. You are delusional if you think the demise of the suburbs is and always will be a fantasy. I'm sure you'll send over some articles that key up your confirmation bias but at the end of the day, based on demographics and data that isn't media-based, suburbs aren't growing at the rate cities are revitalizing. Millennials can't afford the supplemental costs that come with suburban life. Nor do many want to mow a lawn or pile the kids into their modernized version of their parent's favorite gas guzzling SUV to commute to work and school.

The factors that play into this are aplenty - cities being technological hubs where jobs are, millennials carrying obscene amounts of debt which is causing them to abandon the cost of car ownership and embrace public transportation, the overwhelming majority of millennials & gen Z who believe in climate change and care about their impact so they ride bikes to work or hop on the metro, buying smaller houses like the smaller, working-class homes of Old Fishtown & Riverside, the list goes on and on. I doubt you'll want to hear it so I won't bother to keep going. The white picket fence dream is dead for the vast majority of America's largest generation, whether you realize it or not.
When do you expect Philly to reach then exceed its prior peak population?
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