The future of West Oak Lane, Germantown, Olney and East Mt.Airy? (Philadelphia: apartment complexes, rental)

[Muinteoir]

Originally Posted by Von7philly

Yes I’m very fond of the area. I used to live on Wissahickon ave, but my concern is as people move out of north philly they have to relocate somewhere. And culturally this area is linked with North philly meaning it’s not common for residents of either to frequent both areas

Hm, I see your concern. I somehow see such relocation happening to Northeast Philly, where depreciation is already the trend. I suppose the future of East Germantown is still uncertain.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by Muinteoir

Don't you think the Northwest offers something distinct that will keep people there/moving there, despite any revitalization of North Philly? The Northwest has bigger houses, way more greenery (Wissahickon Park is a beast and the pride of many residents of the area), history, developed mini "downtowns" etc. It is a great place for people who want city life with a bit more elbow room and greenery.

Chestnut Hill is not going to suffer and neither will the Mt Airys, East Falls, Manayunk or Roxborough no matter what happens in N. Philly.

[KansastoSouthphilly]

Originally Posted by Von7philly

Yes I’m very fond of the area. I used to live on Wissahickon ave, but my concern is as people move out of north philly they have to relocate somewhere. And culturally this area is linked with North philly meaning it’s not common for residents of either to frequent both areas

North Philly is a huge area that absorb a ton of people. A relative small section of it is undergoing gentrification. Gentrification itself is displacing a very low number of people as it is. To the extent people are leaving North Philly they are mostly going to the lower NE. Some of the more upwardly mobile are going to WOL which is not a bad thing. Northwest Philly has shown no signs of decline; in fact it has experienced a decent amount of recent growth. I see no reason to be worried about decline in Mt. Airy or Germantown in the near future.

[BR Valentine]

Originally Posted by KansastoSouthphilly

North Philly is a huge area that absorb a ton of people. A relative small section of it is undergoing gentrification. Gentrification itself is displacing a very low number of people as it is. To the extent people are leaving North Philly they are mostly going to the lower NE. Some of the more upwardly mobile are going to WOL which is not a bad thing. Northwest Philly has shown no signs of decline; in fact it has experienced a decent amount of recent growth. I see no reason to be worried about decline in Mt. Airy or Germantown in the near future.

Germantown has a 33% poverty rate (much higher than WOL) and declining population. It’s been attracting lower income households from North Philly for decades. Neither of those facts are going to change significantly in the next decade other than maybe Germantown might start to reverse its population loss as WOL has in the current decade.

East Mt. Airy is going to continue its very slow replacement of black people with white people but will still be a majority black neighborhood with low double digit poverty a decade from now. It won’t change faster because the housing stock is built for families and white families won’t touch the public schools in the neighborhood with a ten foot pole. So, many will continue to decamp to the burbs to avoid paying private school tuition once they have school age children.

I don’t expect significant decline in the next decade in any of the neighborhoods mentioned by the OP. I don’t expect significant change from status quo trends in any of them either.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by BR Valentine

Germantown has a 33% poverty rate (much higher than WOL) and declining population. It’s been attracting lower income households from North Philly for decades. Neither of those facts are going to change significantly in the next decade other than maybe Germantown might start to reverse its population loss as WOL has in the current decade.

East Mt. Airy is going to continue its very slow replacement of black people with white people but will still be a majority black neighborhood with low double digit poverty a decade from now. It won’t change faster because the housing stock is built for families and white families won’t touch the public schools in the neighborhood with a ten foot pole. So, many will continue to decamp to the burbs to avoid paying private school tuition once they have school age children.

I don’t expect significant decline in the next decade in any of the neighborhoods mentioned by the OP. I don’t expect significant change from status quo trends in any of them either.

I do wonder at some point if the school taxes will continue to increase in the 'burbs so much that those taxes will almost match tuition at private schools.

[BR Valentine]

Originally Posted by kyb01

I do wonder at some point if the school taxes will continue to increase in the 'burbs so much that those taxes will almost match tuition at private schools.

The average cost of tuition and taxes are not remotely close in the vast majority of suburbs. Also you are hugely underestimating how important it is for white parents to send their children to schools where their children aren’t a minority and how much they are willing to pay for that privilege.

[KansastoSouthphilly]

Originally Posted by BR Valentine

Germantown has a 33% poverty rate (much higher than WOL) and declining population. It’s been attracting lower income households from North Philly for decades. Neither of those facts are going to change significantly in the next decade other than maybe Germantown might start to reverse its population loss as WOL has in the current decade.

East Mt. Airy is going to continue its very slow replacement of black people with white people but will still be a majority black neighborhood with low double digit poverty a decade from now. It won’t change faster because the housing stock is built for families and white families won’t touch the public schools in the neighborhood with a ten foot pole. So, many will continue to decamp to the burbs to avoid paying private school tuition once they have school age children.

I don’t expect significant decline in the next decade in any of the neighborhoods mentioned by the OP. I don’t expect significant change from status quo trends in any of them either.

Well I guess there is a tale of two Germantowns. West Germantown has seen an increasing amount of redevelopment. Especially near Mt. Airy off of Germantown Ave (Johnson through Washington Lane) and the areas near Tulpehocken and Chelten stations. The housing prices reflect this. There have also been several proposed apartment complexes proposed near the 6300 block of Germantown near the Mt. Airy border. I agree that East Germantown is still relatively undeveloped. I don't know if Germantowns population loss will reverse as many of the families moving in will likely be smaller households than what they are replacing. I do think Germantown will see a significant reduction in vacant and blighted properties.


I don't see any sign that EMA will cease to be a majority black neighborhood anytime soon. I don't think that is a goal. A decrease in the poverty rate will be good. I think you are underestimating that rate of change in EMA. I think the main factor slowing change is a lack of inventory. The lack of support for public is real though. My street is full of kids but most of them go to OMC. Some go to Holy Cross. Did have one family recently move to Lafayette Hill for that purpose though unfortunately.


I don't expect a boom but I expect to see relatively steady growth. Especially in EMA and West Germantown.

[BR Valentine]

Originally Posted by KansastoSouthphilly

Well I guess there is a tale of two Germantowns. West Germantown has seen an increasing amount of redevelopment. Especially near Mt. Airy off of Germantown Ave (Johnson through Washington Lane) and the areas near Tulpehocken and Chelten stations. The housing prices reflect this. There have also been several proposed apartment complexes proposed near the 6300 block of Germantown near the Mt. Airy border. I agree that East Germantown is still relatively undeveloped. I don't know if Germantowns population loss will reverse as many of the families moving in will likely be smaller households than what they are replacing. I do think Germantown will see a significant reduction in vacant and blighted properties.


I don't see any sign that EMA will cease to be a majority black neighborhood anytime soon. I don't think that is a goal. A decrease in the poverty rate will be good. I think you are underestimating that rate of change in EMA. I think the main factor slowing change is a lack of inventory. The lack of support for public is real though. My street is full of kids but most of them go to OMC. Some go to Holy Cross. Did have one family recently move to Lafayette Hill for that purpose though unfortunately.


I don't expect a boom but I expect to see relatively steady growth. Especially in EMA and West Germantown.

I generally agree which is why I mentioned that I think the status quo trends will continue. I suppose my underlying point is that the rate of change has been and is likely to remain slow. EMA started to experience demographic change roughly fifteen years ago. The rate of change seems to have picked up a bit in the past five years or so but it’s still a fairly slow process in my opinion. Having said that, I’ve been tracking real estate prices in the area for a long time because I own several rental properties just on the other side of Stenton. Real estate prices in Dogtown have started to increase at pretty rapid rate which is a significant change.


The barrier is not inventory. It’s schools. It’s always been schools. Most white parents don’t want to deal with out-of-catchment and charter applications and they sure as hell aren’t interested in being school integration pioneers. There are plenty of middle-class black parents who want nothing to do with the neighborhood schools either. Your neighbors whose kids attend OMC are an example of just how much of a challenge schools can be. About a year ago I heard from a friend who is a parishioner at OMC that they have more applicants than building capacity and consequently they will no longer enroll new students who aren’t members of the parish. Assuming that information is accurate that’s one less affordable private school option for some parents. Colonial and Springfield are experiencing enrollment growth that neither district anticipated because of the number of parents who would prefer living in the city but aren’t willing to deal with the schools so they opt to live in an inner-ring burb.

It’s the same in West Germantown. The areas experiencing demographic change are the same places, or are immediately adjacent to, where white people were congregated forty years ago. The reason the area between Johnson and Washington Lane has changed is the fact that it was much more affluent than most of Germantown and it retained some white residents post-white flight. Those are always the first and easiest places to change in predominantly black neighborhoods. I hope you’re correct that Germantown is going to experience a significant reduction in vacant properties and vacant land.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by BR Valentine

The average cost of tuition and taxes are not remotely close in the vast majority of suburbs. Also you are hugely underestimating how important it is for white parents to send their children to schools where their children aren’t a minority and how much they are willing to pay for that privilege.

For now, yes. I paid 'burb property and school taxes for quite a while on property I owned so I know those taxes go up every year.

Oh, my. You clearly don't know I grew up in the 'burbs(Haverford Twp near Lower Merion). I know why people, with children, move to suburban communities since my immediate family did the same thing 65 years ago. I'm black and middle class and other black families did it too for the same reasons. Unfortunately when too many black families showed up in, for instance, Cheltenham white families fled.

[Muinteoir]

On another note about the area, I wonder why the Northwest is dominated by Acmes and Save A Lots. They are both inferior to their competition equivalents: Whole Foods > Acme; Aldi > Save A Lot. Residents would surely benefit from some better grocery options, imo.