The Second Lockdown Starts Friday (homes, neighborhood, luxury)

[Danny K]

Originally Posted by rowhomecity

I wonder if Pennsylvania as a whole will set new restrictions also??

Can they even? I thought a couple months ago, that a Federal Judge rules Wolf's restrictions as unconstitutional.

[MarketStEl]

I live in a one-person household.

By definition, the moment I invite anyone else in, I'm running afoul of the restrictions.

The original statewide lockdown had a carve-out for relatives and friends visiting loved ones to look in on them. I'd suggest that the city rethink this part of the new restrictions to allow a similar exception for private spaces.

[ilovephilly79]

Originally Posted by selhars

Is that restriction list really....for real?

So....
-- churches can stay open and have services....but residents can't even have a couple of people over for dinner?
-- Retail can stay open, but a museum or library has to close?

My own personal bubble is very small (and I where a mask AND gloves), but give me a break.

5 people in 1,000 square feet with no food, drink, and socialization is different than having people over for dinner. The former is much safer.

[ilovephilly79]

Originally Posted by rowhomecity

I plan to continue to have small gatherings of 4 or less people at this point.

I get the indoor dinning restrictions, which the federal government really needs to step in with a stimulus to help these establishments.

I understand limiting people inside public spaces such as retailers. Although I think the 5% provision is a little over the top, 10% - 15% would be much more reasonable. This is the busy season for them as well.

Many restaurants are definitely going to go out of business. Between Thanksgiving and New Years is generally a busy time where restaurants profit a good deal of their yearly sales to put them ahead of what is historically the slow season (January - Easter).

You are right about restaurants. The decimation of restaurants will be like nothing we have ever seen before. Very sad really. The domino effect to commercial real estate will be substantial (is already), and I'm not sure how City Hall will keep the city from going into bankruptcy. Just seems too impactful to not create a real problem.

I know that in the long run, the restaurant scene will explode again like new growth in a burnt out forest, but it's insensitive to think like that with so many people facing chapter 11.

[MarketStEl]

Originally Posted by ilovephilly79

You are right about restaurants. The decimation of restaurants will be like nothing we have ever seen before. Very sad really. The domino effect to commercial real estate will be substantial (is already), and I'm not sure how City Hall will keep the city from going into bankruptcy. Just seems too impactful to not create a real problem.

I know that in the long run, the restaurant scene will explode again like new growth in a burnt out forest, but it's insensitive to think like that with so many people facing chapter 11.

Now that you've used it, that forest-fire metaphor may well be the best one I've seen for explaining the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It even extends to this: The people who live in the areas the fire hasn't spread to yet underplay the threat until they start seeing orange skies.

[ilovephilly79]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

Now that you've used it, that forest-fire metaphor may well be the best one I've seen for explaining the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It even extends to this: The people who live in the areas the fire hasn't spread to yet underplay the threat until they start seeing orange skies.

There are some really smart restauranteurs that are proverbially ducking under the waves until the sea calms. Packing up, storing equipment, and planning to re-open with the storm is done. That's pretty smart and not lacking of overhead costs or heart-breaking (because who knows if they will really be able to wait long enough or launch their business again and have it be what it once was), but it is a strategy when the skies are orange and you know your chances of burning up are 75%.

[rowhomecity]

Originally Posted by ilovephilly79

There are some really smart restauranteurs that are proverbially ducking under the waves until the sea calms. Packing up, storing equipment, and planning to re-open with the storm is done. That's pretty smart and not lacking of overhead costs or heart-breaking (because who knows if they will really be able to wait long enough or launch their business again and have it be what it once was), but it is a strategy when the skies are orange and you know your chances of burning up are 75%.

Yes, I see many restauranteurs surviving the storm. I believe you will find many family run restaurants, especially those where the owner is approaching retirement age, to throw in the towel.

These most likely are some of the older establishments in the city which give it so much character, which flat out stinks.

In some ways these restaurants, especially the older ones, really do help define city neighborhoods, as they each have sort of their own personality.

I also feel for those who work in the service industry, which is a surprisingly high number. Just when they were called back, now they are out of luck again. Many in the service industry do not even qualify for unemployment, and if so it is an extremely nominal amount, because most of their income was through tips.

[Flyers Girl]

I know this is anecdotal, but I have no reason to doubt my sister. Her neighbor is a firefighter who gets tested weekly. When a coworker tested positive, he continued to be tested weekly (during his 14-day quarantine and thereafter). Since our testing is much better than it was in the beginning, COVID continues to be detected for 6-7 weeks after infection. So although this guy was back at work and not contagious, he continued to test positive for weeks. The hospital reported that to the CDC as 7 positive tests, which the CDC documents as "cases," even though it's the same person.

I'm not posting this to say that I don't think we should take precautions or lock down, but simply to say that there is a good chance that the positive numbers are being grossly overstated. I'm more interested in the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths. Those seem to be remaining fairly steady, even while cases rise.

[MarketStEl]

Originally Posted by rowhomecity

Yes, I see many restauranteurs surviving the storm. I believe you will find many family run restaurants, especially those where the owner is approaching retirement age, to throw in the towel.

These most likely are some of the older establishments in the city which give it so much character, which flat out stinks.

In some ways these restaurants, especially the older ones, really do help define city neighborhoods, as they each have sort of their own personality.

I also feel for those who work in the service industry, which is a surprisingly high number. Just when they were called back, now they are out of luck again. Many in the service industry do not even qualify for unemployment, and if so it is an extremely nominal amount, because most of their income was through tips.

I'm actually involved in the operation of a hospitality-industry business now, as I think you and others on this board know.

One of the problems such businesses face is: Even if they throw the tarp over everything, shut off the gas lines, and hunker down to ride out the storm, they still have expenses they must cover, and if they haven't saved up money (or if the period of closure outlasts the saved revenue), they may find themselves casualties anyway.

Since our business is a nonprofit social club, we can turn to our members for donations, and to date, they've been very supportive. A normal restaurant doesn't have that backstop.

I believe we do need a second round of coronavirus relief, targeted more at the smaller businesses and at state and local governments and authorities whose budgets are now totally trashed and way in the hole because of the pandemic. But we won't see any action on this until next Jan. 21 at the earliest, and maybe not even then given the divided Congress.

[ilovephilly79]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

I'm actually involved in the operation of a hospitality-industry business now, as I think you and others on this board know.

One of the problems such businesses face is: Even if they throw the tarp over everything, shut off the gas lines, and hunker down to ride out the storm, they still have expenses they must cover, and if they haven't saved up money (or if the period of closure outlasts the saved revenue), they may find themselves casualties anyway.

Since our business is a nonprofit social club, we can turn to our members for donations, and to date, they've been very supportive. A normal restaurant doesn't have that backstop.

I believe we do need a second round of coronavirus relief, targeted more at the smaller businesses and at state and local governments and authorities whose budgets are now totally trashed and way in the hole because of the pandemic. But we won't see any action on this until next Jan. 21 at the earliest, and maybe not even then given the divided Congress.

Agreed, and January is too late. This conundrum is epic. The government, for the first time, forces massive closures to businesses. These businesses have hardships or bankruptcy. Because of that, there is a legitimate expectation that the government, who has imposed the financial hardship (but is suffering itself), support these ruined businesses. But the parties don't get along, and the government continues to stuff these bills full of garbage that is unrelated to the real issue. And so the people are either for it, because they need it, or against it because they don't. And the people EVERYONE agrees should get some help get nothing.