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I don't see it being like a Baltimore but if I had to compare Philadelphia with Baltimore, then Philadelphia will probably be a much more racially and ethnically diverse version of Baltimore than Baltimore ever will be, and at least that's something Philadelphia can hold it's head on compared to Baltimore. Economically, I can understand where you're getting at when I can see the companies that I believe used to based out of Baltimore (Constellation Energy and Black and Decker, I may be wrong on the latter).
The city of Baltimore is declining with no end in sight, uut the metro is growing and unlike Philadelphia where we're the 10-ton gorilla of the Delaware Valley, Baltimore is a part of the fast growing Washington-Baltimore CSA, which it's the 4th largest behind NYC, LA, and Chicago, and any moment from now if Washington-Baltimore keeps up with the growth, will surpass Chicago as #3, mainly thanks to the DC area, and while this may seem like a negative to Baltimore, eventually it's a positive because at the very least, when it comes to the CSA, Baltimore along with Washington will share the bronze, LA takes the silver, and NYC will always be the golden one as Chicago slips to #4.
Twenty years ago, Philadelphia was the fifth largest MSA in the country, in 2010 Philly was #6, and now, we slipped past DC MSA to #7. It's only a matter of time until Atlanta and Miami passes us by in the MSA and it's deeper in the CSA ranks. It looks like Houston is already gunning for US, but my main concern isn't so much Houston, as it's the energy capital of the world and a much more cosmopolitan city, but Atlanta and Miami.
Atlanta sprawls far south close to Macon, far west to Alabama, and far west into Athens. If Miami somehow was able to annex Lee (Ft Myers) and Collier (Naples) Counties into it's CSA, it would surpass Houston and Atlanta and would have to contend with Dallas-Ft Worth, Boston-Worcester-Providence, San Jose-San Francisco. Since Miami is at the far SE corner of the country, and the Brightline to Orlando will almost be complete later this year, and if the FL and Miami leaders were smart enough, they'd have the Brightline going into Ft Myers and Naples considering that there's nothing between SW and S FL other than the Everglades and putting two lines would mean less stops between Miami and SW FL, I can see Miami being in the Top 5 CSA while Atlanta and Houston will be in the Top 10. Philadelphia will be knocked out of the Top 10 once 2030 arrives according to my calculations and Philadelphia will have to contend with Seattle, Orlando, and Phoenix.
The Miami CSA isn’t going to include Collier County let alone Lee County. It’s nearly 90 miles of Everglades between easternmost Collier and westernmost Broward. There is no developable land to facilitate westward sprawl. And you’ve got to travel more than 100 miles to get from anywhere in Collier to a major employment center in Broward. I doubt Miami’s CSA grows to include even St. Lucie County anytime soon or even ever and that’s at least geographically plausible.
Twenty years ago, Philadelphia was the fifth largest MSA in the country, in 2010 Philly was #6, and now, we slipped past DC MSA to #7. It's only a matter of time until Atlanta and Miami passes us by in the MSA and it's deeper in the CSA ranks. It looks like Houston is already gunning for US, but my main concern isn't so much Houston, as it's the energy capital of the world and a much more cosmopolitan city, but Atlanta and Miami.
You're being VERY remiss if you're not accounting for the population shifts of the past few years.
First of all, population growth is slowing everywhere across the US, and globally, for that matter. Fewer births leading to much less natural growth within the US (negative in many areas, and spreading) and far less immigration than in the early 2010s. This is very much a macroeconomic issue moving forward, and one that we're only just beginning to recognize.
Not to mention, a massive pandemic upended population/migration flows, and it's still not exactly clear how the chips will land. Now, I'm not putting all of my stock into the 2021 Census estimates too much, and it's very likely Philadelphia and other large metro areas regained most of the residents who temporarily left in 2020 as COVID subsided (somewhat), but because of obscene housing costs alone and the persistence of remote work in many fields, I think we're going to see very slow growth in all major metro areas for the foreseeable future.
Philadelphia stands to be in a relatively good position for its more affordable housing stock compared to other Northeastern peers, but even it clearly isn't the "bargain" that it used to be.
The Miami CSA isn’t going to include Collier County let alone Lee County. It’s nearly 90 miles of Everglades between easternmost Collier and westernmost Broward. There is no developable land to facilitate westward sprawl. And you’ve got to travel more than 100 miles to get from anywhere in Collier to a major employment center in Broward.
MSA and CSA determines commuting patterns, not by how far both locales are to each other. For example, New Haven County in CT is added to the New York-Newark-Bridgeport NY-NJ-CT MSA and the furthest town in New Haven County that is furthest from NYC is Madison CT, which is 99.4 mi to NYC and takes 1 hr 51 min by car and a total of 4 hr 40 min by rapid transit. Since that takes too long, I'm assuming it's going to be it's going to be a 21 min car ride from Madison CT to New Haven Union Station, followed by a 2 hr 7 min Metro North train ride. If you were to take Amtrak either via Acela, it would be about 1 hr 34 min or if it were the NE Regional, it would take 1 hr 45 min.
Monroe County, PA is another county that's in the New York CSA and the furthest town in Monroe County is Mount Pocono, which is 95.4 mi between Mount Pocono and NYC and takes 1 hr 54 min by car and possibly over 2 hr by bus since there's no rail link connecting Monroe County and NYC. Ocean County in NJ is the southernmost county of the New York CSA and the furthest town is Tuckerton, NJ and it takes 3 hr 29 min by rapid transit and 1 hr 43 min by car. It's about 100 miles from Tuckerton to NYC.
It's about 112 miles between Naples and Miami via US 41 and 109 mi between Naples and Ft. Lauderdale via I-75. All I said is that if the FL leaders in charge were smart enough to link the Brightline from Miami and Broward County to Naples and Ft Myers via an elevated ROW along US 41 and I-75, and if the Brightline trains travel on an average of 125-150 mph, and if there's considerable commuters from either SW and South FL going to these locales for work and back, then it's possible that SW and South FL can create it's own CSA, so long as commuting patterns remain constant the way commuting patterns between CT, NJ, and parts of PA remain consistent to traveling to the immediate NYC area.
I never said that SW FL and South FL were in the same CSA, I just used a what if hypothetical scenario if the Brightline was linked between Ft. Myers and Naples to Broward and Miami. If properly built and managed, anything can happen, even with the Everglades in the middle of southern FL.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR Valentine
I doubt Miami’s CSA grows to include even St. Lucie County anytime soon or even ever and that’s at least geographically plausible.
According to the US Census, St. Lucie County is a part of the Miami CSA. I guess your doubts about it contradicted the facts.
You're being VERY remiss if you're not accounting for the population shifts of the past few years.
First of all, population growth is slowing everywhere across the US, and globally, for that matter. Fewer births leading to much less natural growth within the US (negative in many areas, and spreading) and far less immigration than in the early 2010s. This is very much a macroeconomic issue moving forward, and one that we're only just beginning to recognize.
I've noticed that the American population is gradually declining in not just Philly, but in a lot of major cities in America. I suggest that we see within the next three years until we can see whether the country's population is actually contracting because there's always some growth, even if it's small growth, and there's somebody out there who's starting families somewhere in this country. Personally, despite the pandemic, I felt that the US census did a subpar job, as there's no 1-year estimates for the 2020 Census anymore. The 1-year census estimate is the standard for population estimates for many states, certain counties, and even some major cities. We see in 2026.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino
Not to mention, a massive pandemic upended population/migration flows, and it's still not exactly clear how the chips will land. Now, I'm not putting all of my stock into the 2021 Census estimates too much, and it's very likely Philadelphia and other large metro areas regained most of the residents who temporarily left in 2020 as COVID subsided (somewhat), but because of obscene housing costs alone and the persistence of remote work in many fields, I think we're going to see very slow growth in all major metro areas for the foreseeable future.
If Philly grows physically, economically, and financial, great, and Mayor Kenney is all of a sudden a genius, a potential gubernatorial candidate for 2026, and America's mayor, if not, don't saw I didn't call out the physical, financial, and economic stagnation. I came to the city in 2001 and saw Philly become a shadow of itself due to deindustrialization and disinvestment to a brief comeback with National Geographic's Next Great City title going to Philly, to the Phillies winning the WS in 2008, to a brief moment of growth between 2007-2019 and it's currently declining.
Either way, with many families having less children and if they're starting to have children, they're doing it in later years due to the 2008 recession delaying those plans, I'm seeing the Sunbelt cities outpacing the old established Northern and now the Western cities. I can only hope the US Census can bring back the 1-year Census estimates because that's how we know exactly how many people a city and a state has, but I believe the jackasses really dropped the ball by not releasing the 1-year estimates, even if according to them, the figures are out of wack. The public reserves us a right to know, even if it's a little skewed!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino
Philadelphia stands to be in a relatively good position for its more affordable housing stock compared to other Northeastern peers, but even it clearly isn't the "bargain" that it used to be.
I believe the best time to invest was back in the 1990's to the mid 2010's. After that, nowadays, housing prices have skyrocketed. Grays Ferry was practically no man's land, now you have houses in the 200s and the 300s in Grays Ferry. Parts of Kensington have seen a lot of condos, and places where there was seemingly no chance of being saved over a decade ago are now seen as desirable. I can see certain pockets far away from Center City that are affordable, but as prices and inflation rises, Philadelphia is going to be a less affordable "sixth borough" and a backdoor office center by 2030.
I'm not against revitalization, but I believe that just trying to attract the rich and the well off is only going to make the city less diverse, less flavorful and much more sterile, not just meaning less black and less Puerto Rican and Dominican, but even certain white ethnics like the Italians and the Polish are moving out of South Philly and Port Richmond to either the PA or NJ suburbs in favor of hipsters. It's the same going on in NYC, with the Poles moving out of Greenpoint and Italians moving out of South Brooklyn into NJ.
As a product of the 80s and 90s, I can appreciate the old ethnic strongholds, as it does display the diversity of the city, and it looks like Philadelphia is on it's way towards being NY's "sixth borough" than being an independent city where you can have a second chance and improve your life. I don't mind being close to NY, but I do mind when a small group of people all of a sudden are looking to move the hordes and masses of the "natives and savages" who inhabited the city when Philadelphia was a struggling, but fun city to be in during the 90s and 2000s. Now it's become a carbon copy of SF and Boston but with still crappy mass transit and inept gov't leadership.
Where do we see Philly in 5 years? Where do we see Philly in 20 years? What about some plan for Philly 2035?
Maybe it's me and I have no vision.
But I have no frigging idea. I'm trying to get through THIS year....heck, this week!
This made me chuckle.
I see the city coming out of the funk and prospering. Remember, the city was at it's peak post-recession. If it can wether 07 and 08 and shed it's Killadelphia reputation, it can do it again post-pandemic.
I see the city coming out of the funk and prospering. Remember, the city was at it's peak post-recession. If it can wether 07 and 08 and shed it's Killadelphia reputation, it can do it again post-pandemic.
All signs are still pointing up even with the problems associated with crime and Covid recovery.
All signs are still pointing up even with the problems associated with crime and Covid recovery.
The crime and "covid recovery" issues are happening EVERYWHERE.
Good lord. You'd think that Philly was "Escape from New York 2" and that every other city in America is an amusement park.
We have become so accustomed to pointing fingers and blame that we believe more of the BS than ever.
Philly, along with every other big urban center, is experiencing crime and violence surges from many factors, most of which stem from an increased opportunity for younger and younger kids to obtain guns and participate in the drug trade. Kids haven't developed the maturity needed to deal with social media and the crap that comes from that. They are much more likely to resort violence when "disrespected" and have little impulse control, let alone gun skills. Cops say it over and over. And it's happening everywhere.
The crime and "covid recovery" issues are happening EVERYWHERE.
Good lord. You'd think that Philly was "Escape from New York 2" and that every other city in America is an amusement park.
We have become so accustomed to pointing fingers and blame that we believe more of the BS than ever.
Philly, along with every other big urban center, is experiencing crime and violence surges from many factors, most of which stem from an increased opportunity for younger and younger kids to obtain guns and participate in the drug trade. Kids haven't developed the maturity needed to deal with social media and the crap that comes from that. They are much more likely to resort violence when "disrespected" and have little impulse control, let alone gun skills. Cops say it over and over. And it's happening everywhere.
Philly is on fire. Like it or not.
Right, it suddenly became easier to get guns and drugs in 2020. If people refuse to acknowledge the real problems, there will never be real solutions. What I'm hearing cops say over and over, is that they aren't permitted to enforce the law, and the DA's office refuses to prosecute criminals. This is a direct result of the Soros-backed progressive liberal sweep of Mayor and DA elections in large, Democratic-controlled cities across the country, exacerbated by the complete refusal of elected leaders to control the BLM riots in 2020.
The crime and "covid recovery" issues are happening EVERYWHERE.
Good lord. You'd think that Philly was "Escape from New York 2" and that every other city in America is an amusement park.
We have become so accustomed to pointing fingers and blame that we believe more of the BS than ever.
Philly, along with every other big urban center, is experiencing crime and violence surges from many factors, most of which stem from an increased opportunity for younger and younger kids to obtain guns and participate in the drug trade. Kids haven't developed the maturity needed to deal with social media and the crap that comes from that. They are much more likely to resort violence when "disrespected" and have little impulse control, let alone gun skills. Cops say it over and over. And it's happening everywhere.
Philly is on fire. Like it or not.
Where did he say otherwise? It's possible to acknowledge the city is in a funk yet still primed for a bright future.
Right, it suddenly became easier to get guns and drugs in 2020. If people refuse to acknowledge the real problems, there will never be real solutions. What I'm hearing cops say over and over, is that they aren't permitted to enforce the law, and the DA's office refuses to prosecute criminals. This is a direct result of the Soros-backed progressive liberal sweep of Mayor and DA elections in large, Democratic-controlled cities across the country, exacerbated by the complete refusal of elected leaders to control the BLM riots in 2020.
Krasner nor BLM were around when the city averaged 400 homicides a year in the 90s. That "progressives are ruining our big cities " narrative is played out.
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