Direction of home prices in Philly suburbs? (Philadelphia, Washington: real estate, foreclosure)

[DC2NJorPA]

I'm trying to get the pulse of the RE market in the area. The areas I'm most interested in are:

- Main Line, PA
- Media, PA
- Cherry Hill area, NJ

What I'd like to know is:

- Are single-family home prices dropping?
- If so, when did the market peak?
- How far off peak prices are today's comps?

I would also like to know if RE price data is published online anywhere. In my local market, the Realtors board puts out very detailed monthly price analysis charts, showing # of listings, # of homes going under contract, average price trends, and a histogram of homes on the market by price.

If that kind of data exists, please post a link. Otherwise, anecdotal data is fine.

[bernerd]

Philadelphia Magazine has a comprehensive overview through year end 2007. (Expanded Real Estate Price List: How’s Your Neighborhood Doing? - Philly Mag)

In summary, Media is doing OK (Media includes Media Borogh, Upper Providence and Middletown townships). Main Line and Cherry Hill are down slightly. This reflects the fact that Media didn't get as inflated as the Main Line and Cherry Hill in the past few years and prices there were always more reasonable. Main Line definitely got caught up in the whole boom market and is probably more susceptible to correction (dollar-wise if not percentage)

The Philly suburban market probably peaked in 2006 though it remained pretty strong through early 2007.

My sense is that the correction here began in late 2007 and started to really take hold in 2008. So I think that prices will definitely drop this year. Listing prices finally started to adjust this winter and now at least some reality is settling in. For the first time in years, I've seen some bargains.

Overall, Philly doesn't go through the wild swings that other markets do. If NY or Boston or Washington go up 100% and down 50%, Philly more likely goes up 50% and down 20%. With that said, its been a crazy few years and even in Philly prices went up 50% or more in the past 5 years and are due for some significant deflation. But (at least in the suburbs) subprime wasn't as big an issue as in other areas and prices are still way lower than NY or Washington.

My guess is that prices could drop 10% to 15% this year, maybe more. Media is benefitting from the whole New Urbanism thing (and shedding its second-tier status) which provides some strength. But the Main Line will aways be more expensive. Cherry Hill is a tough call with the hangover of Jersey's fiscal issues and aging post-war housing.

Personally, I would go fo Media since its has great public transport, a walkable downtown and is generally priced lower than some of the other suburbs. But I think you'll find better deals a year from now.

[orrmobl]

Thanks bernerd, I've been looking in Delco and the Main Line for some time now and am more confused than ever. It still seems the Main Line prices are a good $100K over on average, at least when first listed. We're patiently waiting til we find something we love that's worth haggling over or prices come down to a reasonable point where shopping is apples to apples again...

[bryson662001]

Philadelphia's home-price drop less than elsewhere | Philadelphia Inquirer | 04/30/2008

Posted on Wed, Apr. 30, 2008


Philadelphia's home-price drop less than elsewhere

By Alan J. Heavens
Inquirer Real Estate Writer

The Philadelphia region's home prices continue to decline at a slower rate than the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index, economists said yesterday.
The index found that single-family home prices in February dropped 12.7 percent from the same month in 2007 in 19 of the 20 cities it tracks - even when adjusted for inflation.
Some of those cities - Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix - reported steep double-digit declines year to year, the index showed.
"Home prices in those areas still have a ways to fall," said Patrick Newport, the housing economist for Global Insight Inc., the Lexington, Mass., economic-forecasting firm.
Only one of the 20 cities, Charlotte, N.C., saw prices rise - 1.5 percent.
Some of the same metro areas saw substantial increases in the number of first-quarter foreclosure filings over 2007, according to RealtyTrac Inc., of Irvine, Calif. Las Vegas and Phoenix were high on the top 10 list of filings, at No. 3 and No. 7, respectively.
In the meantime, Philadelphia ranked 82d, with an almost 30 percent year-over-year decline in filings, to 3,064, RealtyTrac reported.