Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (Scottsdale: broker, homes)

[EnicAZ]

Originally Posted by twiggy

Yes, thats exactly what I mean. It would be nice if your job was as stationary as the home you bought but it isn't and with no job security anymore, or really not for quite a long time you can't just buy one home, stay in it for 30 years and reap the benefits because unless your lucky your job won't be there for 30 years. You have to be willing to move around now for a decent job, and we change jobs frequently. Every time you sell your home to relocate you loose money, or you end up commuting far distances and you loose money and time for your personal life. It just seems worth the rent to me right now, I've owned but renting has the perks I need to stay available for good job opportunities and options that I just wouldn't have other wise. I don't know anyone actually who has stayed in their home longer than 15 years, most shorter times. My Grandmother is the only one I know of and she lives in MA and the house is 100 years old and still worth a good sum of money, but they do that back there. Out west is more difficult unless you are in a small town I guess. Seems like it to me anyway, I'm no real estate expert though. lol

I think flexibility and mobility is going to be key in the new and permanent era of the job market. Temporary projects and short term contracts will become much more common, and it will require that people have the ability to move quickly and easily.

You said it really well: "It would be nice if your job was as stationary as the home you bought but it isn't and with no job security anymore, or really not for quite a long time you can't just buy one home, stay in it for 30 years and reap the benefits because unless your lucky your job won't be there for 30 years. You have to be willing to move around now for a decent job, and we change jobs frequently. Every time you sell your home to relocate you loose money, or you end up commuting far distances and you loose money and time for your personal life."

[ruby40]

I was wondering the same thing as OP. Thinking of moving accross country to Phoenix. Tax break or lower price, it might be a wash. Its a local issue, here prices are steady or increasing slowly. There was not a huge drop off when the tax break ended either.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

I have been thinking that it would be worth it to buy a home, move the family to the area and stay at my job in California. With the homes I have been looking at in Surprise, many are under $100,000. We would love something that we could pay off in less than 10 years. Can't seem to do that in our part of California.

Maybe that is the wave of the future, either not buying, or buying something and living somewhere else for a while. Maybe that is the way to get a somewhat stationary job and house.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Bad news again. See Existing-Home Sales Plunged in July - WSJ.com

[altus2006]

[quote=ruby40;15608543]Tax break or lower price, it might be a wash. /QUOTE]

It is not a wash. If you figure out mortgage payments for $100,000 at 6% and at 4.5%, the difference is tens of thousands of dollars difference during the course of a 30 year loan. That is a lot more money than getting an up front hand out from the government's empty coffers.

The major difference to me is that the taxpayers are not subsidizing someone's purchase of a home if they get a loan with a smaller % rate.

I am not in favor of "spreading the wealth" as some in charge tend to be aiming for this year.

altus2006

[Ponderosa]

[quote=altus2006;15609731]

Originally Posted by ruby40

Tax break or lower price, it might be a wash. /QUOTE]

It is not a wash. If you figure out mortgage payments for $100,000 at 6% and at 4.5%, the difference is tens of thousands of dollars difference during the course of a 30 year loan. That is a lot more money than getting an up front hand out from the government's empty coffers.

The major difference to me is that the taxpayers are not subsidizing someone's purchase of a home if they get a loan with a smaller % rate.

I am not in favor of "spreading the wealth" as some in charge tend to be aiming for this year.

altus2006

Lower interest is a better deal but not 10s of thousands better. Loans get paid back in inflated dollars. You have to figure the present value of those future payments. It would cost you about 12% of principal to buy down a loan from 6 to 4.5% or $12,000 present value on a $100,000 mortgage. That's better than the $6k credit, still. The interest deal gets better the more you borrow too where the credit was fixed. The economy curmudgeons seem to have changed their tune from warning us all about rampant inflation a couple of months ago to warning us of deflation now. Who knows? But, should the inflation take hold and rates rise like they might, that home at 4.5% is going to be the deal of a lifetime for those who get can it.

[MGotcha]

For the long term, you should keep in mind what a neighborhood full of sub 100K houses may be like in 10 years.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by MGotcha

For the long term, you should keep in mind what a neighborhood full of sub 100K houses may be like in 10 years.

A good and often glossed over point especially for people from Canada or somewhere who want to buy low, rent it out and retire there 10 years down the road. And, in many of them there is no need to wait 10 years. You can already see it.

[Ritchie_az]

It's hard to say that some prices could actually go to zero, but it's clear that there are far too many unneeded homes in the area.

The sky is falling!

Most of the homes are indeed "needed". Lot's of renters, oportunists, investors, folks moving to the area, kids graduating college, etc. Give it a little time, the homes will not stay empty.

[Ritchie_az]

By the time this is over, I think we will see prices drop another 25-30% in the Phoenix area. Others in my office think it will drop 30-40% from here.

Still others are far less pessimistic....

I've not previously made predictions, but here I go:
-over the next two years, housing prices in the $149k and under catagory will rise 1.5%.
-over the next two years, housing prices in the $150k-$250k catagory will rise 0.5%.
-over the next two years, housing in the $250 and up catagory will fall 2.5%.
-over the next five years, housing prices in the $149k and under catagory will rise 4%.
-over the next five years, housing prices in the $150k-$250k catagory will rise 3.5%
-over the next five years, housing in the $250 and up catagory will rise 1%.

There will ups and downs along the way. But it's my guess.