Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (lender, home)

[Ritchie_az]

Maybe that is the wave of the future... buying something and living somewhere else for a while.

I think you see that going on right now, and you can see it right here on this forum. A lot of people are looking at the home prices in the Phoenix area right now and are thinking this is the time to get a second home.

[rjrcm]

Originally Posted by EnicAZ

As an agent, I have to be honest and say the drop in prices is a sure thing. It is already happening. By the time this is over, I think we will see prices drop another 25-30% in the Phoenix area. Others in my office think it will drop 30-40% from here....

Glad I don't work in your office. Your broker should just close up the office now. I agree prices will continue to trend down for a few months, but 25%+ I don't see. I'm more in Ritchie_az's camp.

[Howard Roark]

Flying from Los Angeles to Phoenix once, I met a man who has a house and family in Phoenix and flies there every weekend, but during the weekdays lives on a friend's boat in Redondo Beach. The man is a grip for the movie industry. He said he's been living that way for over ten years. So it's not just me but other people who are doing long distance commuting.

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

I have been thinking that it would be worth it to buy a home, move the family to the area and stay at my job in California. With the homes I have been looking at in Surprise, many are under $100,000. We would love something that we could pay off in less than 10 years. Can't seem to do that in our part of California.

Maybe that is the wave of the future, either not buying, or buying something and living somewhere else for a while. Maybe that is the way to get a somewhat stationary job and house.

[las vegas drunk]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

Still others are far less pessimistic....

I've not previously made predictions, but here I go:
-over the next two years, housing prices in the $149k and under catagory will rise 1.5%.
-over the next two years, housing prices in the $150k-$250k catagory will rise 0.5%.
-over the next two years, housing in the $250 and up catagory will fall 2.5%.
-over the next five years, housing prices in the $149k and under catagory will rise 4%.
-over the next five years, housing prices in the $150k-$250k catagory will rise 3.5%
-over the next five years, housing in the $250 and up catagory will rise 1%.

There will ups and downs along the way. But it's my guess.

You would never be successful as an economist. We are going into a depression that is going worse than the Great Depression. Look what happened then to house prices:



The realtor who said a 30%-40% drop is spot on. Your prediction is based on fantasy, not realty.

[actinic]

“It’s entirely likely that markets like Arizona will not recover even in the 15- to 20-year time frame,” said Mr. Humphries of Zillow. “The demand doesn’t exist.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/bu...e&ref=business

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

Still others are far less pessimistic....

I've not previously made predictions, but here I go:
-over the next two years, housing prices in the $149k and under catagory will rise 1.5%.
-over the next two years, housing prices in the $150k-$250k catagory will rise 0.5%.
-over the next two years, housing in the $250 and up catagory will fall 2.5%.
-over the next five years, housing prices in the $149k and under catagory will rise 4%.
-over the next five years, housing prices in the $150k-$250k catagory will rise 3.5%
-over the next five years, housing in the $250 and up catagory will rise 1%.

There will ups and downs along the way. But it's my guess.

Way too pessimistic. I don't see a depression much less a double-dip recession going forward. Nothing will fall over two years. Everything will go up by at least 20% by 2016 with the lowest end much more than that. Median will be pushing 200K by Aug of 2016 if not sooner.

[las vegas drunk]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Way too pessimistic. I don't see a depression much less a double-dip recession going forward. Nothing will fall over two years. Everything will go up by at least 20% by 2016 with the lowest end much more than that. Median will be pushing 200K by Aug of 2016 if not sooner.

All I am going to say is I bookmarked this post. I will come back in a year and address you, but you surely will not want to address me since I actually do know what is coming.

[Skywayy2001]

another 20-40% drop, ha...it's all about location and that's what people never talk about. You're telling me a nice luxury home in areas of C. Phoenix, PV, or Scottsdale that is already down 30% is going to drop by over half again? Not gonna happen in nice areas of town unless it's a dumb an/or tear down. It will probably happen in other areas of town but you have to be specific. Generalizations when talking about the Phoenix market is so dumb. Wake me up when I can buy a nice million dollar home in PV for $400k; there will be a line of about 10,000 people waiting to buy that.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by las vegas drunk

All I am going to say is I bookmarked this post. I will come back in a year and address you, but you surely will not want to address me since I actually do know what is coming.

My housing horizon is 5 years and not one so see you in 2016. If you mean we will be in a depression in a year, OK. I think you are full of nutty, internet-blogging baloney! And you don't "actually know" what is coming. Your predication is based on the blathering of biased commentators who are so blinded by ideology that they can't see the facts in front of them.

[las vegas drunk]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

My housing horizon is 5 years and not one so see you in 2016. If you mean we will be in a depression in a year, OK. I think you are full of nutty, internet-blogging baloney! And you don't "actually know" what is coming. Your predication is based on the blathering of biased commentators who are so blinded by ideology that they can't see the facts in front of them.

I like to listen to people who have excellent track records that are professionals. You can think what you want, but what I have been saying for a while is now coming true. Here is a little history for you. Al Gore and Bill Clinton put NAFTA and GATT into place back in 1994 thats sole purpose was to de-industrialize the USA. It took a little time, but now most of our jobs have been outsourced. We have now become a service economy, not a production based economy. This will kill the housing market as the service sector is not nearly as prosperous.