Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (marketplace, statistics)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

[azjack]

"You can't just add them up. There is very likely a high degree of overlap between those estimates. And just because a homes' mortgage balance exceeds the value does not mean the owner is in trouble. Many can afford their payments and will hold on for the long term."

That really is the question. Will the majority of the remaining significantly underwater folks ($50K-plus, although that threshold will vary) walk away? From having talked to a few people who were adamant as late as 2007, 2008 that this was their "home", etc. who ultimately walked, I feel more certain that a super-majority of people in the Phoenix area in with that situation will walk. I mean 75%-plus. There are always people who act differently, which is certainly not a negative thing unless they bankrupt themselves just to save a house loan in our non-recourse state.

Other factors such as negative neighborhood changes, moving for employment, and family changes will occur, as they always have. When those situations do occur, there will be no viable options. Rent it out and pay the difference for years? That sounds even worse to me than foreclosure because the pain is ongoing and may still result in the same outcome.

[rjrcm]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

...
So breaking it out:

• NAR 4 million homes on the market (no overlap)
• Fannie Mae says there are 8 million homes vacant or in the foreclosure process (no overlap) [ Disagree - Many vacant homes can be listed for sale in the NAR figure. Also many in the foreclosure process may be listed for sale as short sales. Could be very significant overlap ]
  
• a Zillow survey says there is an additional 3.8 million homes “very likely” to be on the market within 6 months (soon to be in the process (no overlap) [ How many of those homes are projected as vacant or in foreclosure process by Fannie Mae and not yet on market? ]
  

..

See above.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by rjrcm

See above.

I now agree with your explanation. Independent of everything else, I forgot about the (obvious) shorts.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

AZjack. I would agree with your point of view. There must some momentum building to "simply" walk away.

[sh9730]

Here is an interesting graphic from the Case-Schiller numbers released this morning:

Home price tracker - SignOnSanDiego.com

[EnicAZ]

Mn-Born-n-Raised,

It is an important and unfortunate graph you have. Phoenix has the highest number of underwater homes (quantity, not percent) of any U.S. city. Jobs are going to be the key to getting a stabilization on this problem.

[madmmac]

A look at home prices in 20 US cities - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/APa44d83dc50e641a4bc585fa2f3eb6f2a.html?KEYWORDS=p hoenix - broken link)

Phoenix: Down 0.6 percent from June, up 3.4 percent from last year.

[Ritchie_az]

"With Phoenix home values having fallen more than $11,000 last month alone...." --EnicAZ

So, EnicAZ, you still stick by your statement from a few days ago?

Phoenix: Down 0.6 percent from June, up 3.4 percent from last year.

Best I can tell, that means the average price of homes sold is just under two million each. That is, if there is any merit to EnicAZ's statement....

...which, of course, there isn't. His statement is just as outrageous as his extreme doom-and-gloom predictions, which should all be taken with huge grains of salt....


Thanks, madmmac, for posting the above link.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

So, EnicAZ, you still stick by your statement from a few days ago?



Best I can tell, that means the average price of homes sold is just under two million each. That is, if there is any merit to EnicAZ's statement....

...which, of course, there isn't. His statement is just as outrageous as his extreme doom-and-gloom predictions, which should all be taken with huge grains of salt....


Thanks, madmmac, for posting the above link.

As a whole, the Phoenix market has many different pockets of gains and losses.

Ritchie_az. If I remember right, you live in Goodyear. The trend in Goodyear (especially north of 10) y-o-y is stable.

Now look at Gilbert. In one zip code, it's down well over 10% (south of the 202).
If you graph all of the short sales in Gilbert, it is pretty grim and I predict there is more to go.

Queen Creek had a nice bump in appreciation during the tax credit era. Now it is dropping fairly hard. (85142 is all of Queen Creek including San Tan.) It's too bad the graph didn't show April of 2009 because it would have shown a roller coaster.

Anthem is giving back some of its gains as we speak.

Historically prices drop in the fall. It does the exact same thing nearly every year. Yet no one posted and plotted declines in 1995 like they are doing in September 2010. I'm assuming Bloomberg and the WSJ are gets a massive amount of hits from their electronic articles so the keep on re-printing the same stuff (different ways) and guys like me keep on reading it.

I know you look around and see that you picked up a few bucks since you bought. And you probably are correct. But the guy who bought a year ago in Gilbert will have a tougher time making that statement. But the results vary even depending on the zip code IN Gilbert just as some of the areas south of 10 have taken a brutal beating as of late and others might have went up.

I am not purchasing for the long run (I might move in 5 years to another area in the Valley) and this is a 2nd home for me. So I care to "time it" as compared to others who just plan on living there with their family. But with all of this uncertainty so many people are just sitting and waiting.

"That's why EnicAZ's office is recommending people to wait 6-9 months before they do anything." We saw what can happen in 6-9 months in Queen Creek: A surge in pricing and a massive decline to follow. The next run-up can finally stick as it has undershot quite a bit in several areas. So "waiting 6-9 months" is an eternity in this quick paced market. People in "EnicAZ's office" are getting some bad advice if they can afford a $150K home of their dreams and are wating for it to drop. I'd say "wait 2 months and then re-analyze. This market is NOT stable and we are bouncing. It could bounce for 5 more years or it could move up fast enough to price some people out of the market in SOME zip codes.

It's been stated real estate is local. Oh how true espcially in this curent climate.