Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (for sale, real estate market)

[Howard Roark]

If you knew your neighborhood is going to get hit with a lot of foreclosures, I wonder why you bought instead of waited? Woudn't you think there will be significant price drops ahead in your neighborhood?

Originally Posted by jimj

Do you see this behavior happening still/again? After recently looking to buy I was up against speculators/investors/flippers all over the place, was offered a zero down loan from the feds, was offered a stated income loan (at a higher rate of course) so what's changed?
Now that we've finally bought and after speaking with some of our neighbors this area (and I'd have to guess many others) are real close to a huge wave of foreclosures. What I was told after we moved in was that well over half of the people living in our sub were barely hanging on and teetering on the edge right now. If landscaping,curb view and just general neighborhood activity (or lack thereof) are any indication I can believe it.

[RattleSnake_Heads]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

If you knew your neighborhood is going to get hit with a lot of foreclosures, I wonder why you bought instead of waited? Woudn't you think there will be significant price drops ahead in your neighborhood?

I was wondering the same thing as I saw his comments. It makes sense to wait to buy to see how far prices will fall now that the tax credit is gone. I don't know why anyone would want to catch a falling knife.

[Discovery1]

I think some of you folks should turn off the TV and the internet.

[_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

So it would be better if the unemployed stuck around? If folks who lost their jobs found work in another state, is that not a good thing? I guess I don't get what you are trying to say....
The economy here is not great--it's in the bottom third right now--but it could be worse and I'm glad it's not worse. When the national economy begins to recover, I suspect that Arizon'a economy will grow at a pretty good pace.

I was speaking to the subject of this thread and the connection between unemployment and local trends for home prices. I can only suggest more thorough reading of the entire thread for your own clarification.
Yes it stands to reason AZ's economy will improve with the rest of the country and that was not the topic being discussed.

[Ritchie_az]

I was speaking to the subject of this thread and the connection between unemployment and local trends for home prices. I can only suggest more thorough reading of the entire thread for your own clarification.

I read the whole thread. It would seem that some here are over-dramatizing our local economy to make themselves feel better about "waiting". It's great to wait, gather all the information possible, etc. But if someone wants to buy a house, has a good job, some savings, done the research, and is planning to stick around a while, there are not many good reasons why he or she shouldn't buy.

[YAZ]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

I read the whole thread. It would seem that some here are over-dramatizing our local economy to make themselves feel better about "waiting". It's great to wait, gather all the information possible, etc. But if someone wants to buy a house, has a good job, some savings, done the research, and is planning to stick around a while, there are not many good reasons why he or she shouldn't buy.

My wife and I purchased a home last year......


While we're concerned about the property's value recently ( it's dropped 25% since we bought it), we're not looking to move anytime soon. If we had to, then we'd be in trouble.

We planned on living here at least 20 years (God willing), and we're having a blast getting this old place to where we want it.

Gotta remember:

We bought this home to live in; not really an investment. Actually it's a liability right now. We shell out the cash to live here, with no money coming in because we live here. That is a liability by definition.

On the bright side, the price was a heckuva lot less last year than it would've been in 2003.

[actinic]

At the first sign of recovery the speculative madness will return to push prices up temporarily, followed by an even harder fall.

You can thank AZ's ridiculous laws protecting speculators from deficiency judgments. If you legislate real estate gambling the gamblers will come.

[_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

I read the whole thread. It would seem that some here are over-dramatizing our local economy to make themselves feel better about "waiting". It's great to wait, gather all the information possible, etc. But if someone wants to buy a house, has a good job, some savings, done the research, and is planning to stick around a while, there are not many good reasons why he or she shouldn't buy.

LOL it would appear it is yourself you wish to reassure and that's fine. If there is a home you wish to buy and can go ahead. It is your personal decision and business. However this is not going to change facts about the Valley's housing market.

[Ritchie_az]

LOL it would appear it is yourself you wish to reassure and that's fine.

Not so. I didn't buy a house as an investment (which is a pretty recent idea). I purchased my house as a stable place to raise a young family. Whatever happens to the price doesn't matter very much to me.
However, if everyone took the advice given in this thread, no one would buy a home and it would be a self-fulfilling prophecy--of course the prices would drop! If you are in the market to buy (and you consider the house an investment instead of a home), you don't want ANYONE to buy. You want the demand to be zero. If a bunch of folks went out and purchased homes tomorrow, that would be bad for you (but good for them).
So you go on a message board and try to paint this really bad picture and say it's stupid to buy right now. You try to lower demand. That benefits you, great. But what about those who want a home to raise a family in? Your doom-and-gloom scenerios paint a false picture for them. And I think those reading this thread should understand that.

[azjack]

"If a bunch of folks went out and purchased homes tomorrow, that would be bad for you (but good for them).
So you go on a message board and try to paint this really bad picture and say it's stupid to buy right now. You try to lower demand. That benefits you, great. But what about those who want a home to raise a family in? Your doom-and-gloom scenerios paint a false picture for them. And I think those reading this thread should understand that."

Yes, I believe that a certain former airline captain turned realtor posted similar theories in past threads. I really think that you both overestimate the influence of this message board. It would be nice to give pause to a few potential knife-catchers, but that would hardly have broad market influence.

"But what about those who want a home to raise a family in?"

A mortgage is not required to raise a family.