Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (retire, properties)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

washingtonpost.com
Foreclosure freeze could put security clearances at risk
"Employees with security clearances are monitored by the government for financial problems that would make them vulnerable to bribery or blackmail. And with many financial companies adopting some form of foreclosure freeze in recent weeks, it's taking longer for some delinquent borrowers to resolve their mortgage cases and put their troubles behind them, the lawyers said."

[jimj]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

That's "if" you believe "shadow inventory" exists. It doesn't.

Eric's predictions are similar to predicting that the sun will set in the evening.

Duh!

Prices and sales volume fall after the summer in Phoenix.

Not news.

His key assertion is that they'll fall below last year's low, and it hasn't happened, even though he's repeated himself 50+ times in this thread.

Hey, don't kill the messenger, I just posted what this lady said in the news interview.
Is it "possible"? I think at this point anything is possible. Heck two years ago I would have never thought the government taking over GM and Chrysler and giving 'em to the unions was possible! The real question, is it likely? I don't know enough about the current status to say either way.

So that begs the question, what if a suit was filed that stopped ALL foreclosures for a period of time like several months and then after this extended period a judge rules in the lenders favor and all this backed up inventory was suddenly released all at once?
Wouldn't this have to have an effect on prices?

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by jimj

Hey, don't kill the messenger, I just posted what this lady said in the news interview.
Is it "possible"? I think at this point anything is possible. Heck two years ago I would have never thought the government taking over GM and Chrysler and giving 'em to the unions was possible! The real question, is it likely? I don't know enough about the current status to say either way.

So that begs the question, what if a suit was filed that stopped ALL foreclosures for a period of time like several months and then after this extended period a judge rules in the lenders favor and all this backed up inventory was suddenly released all at once?
Wouldn't this have to have an effect on prices?

The press is overstating the issue as usual. First of all, in Arizona the only entity that is delaying foreclosure processing is Bank of America. They service about 1/4 of the mortgages in the state, though, so they are a major player. However, they have only held up the processing of existing foreclosure activities and are moving ahead as usual with new ones. There is very little likelihood of any problems in AZ foreclosures as AZ is a non-judicial state meaning a judge is rarely involved in the process. I think the delay here is more related to workload constraints at BofA than any issue with the foreclosures themselves. It is and will be pretty much business as usual soon.

[Howard Roark]

I can see why. Many of those people got on the greed bandwagon and thought they'd retire on their house prices going up 20% per year until retirement (in 15 to 20 years) - LOL. In short, taking financial risks is very similar to gambling. And yes the federal government needs to be careful about who it hires. Gamblers are considered irrational, greedy, emotional, knee-jerk reactionists. That type of person is not the person you want to give a secret clearance or higher clearance to.

Of course the same thing with druggies and alcoholics, child beaters, wife beaters, registered sex offenders and the rest of the circus crowd.

This does not mean a cleared individual must be a saint. The government is looking for stable and honest people, of course to help protect national security.

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

washingtonpost.com
Foreclosure freeze could put security clearances at risk
"Employees with security clearances are monitored by the government for financial problems that would make them vulnerable to bribery or blackmail. And with many financial companies adopting some form of foreclosure freeze in recent weeks, it's taking longer for some delinquent borrowers to resolve their mortgage cases and put their troubles behind them, the lawyers said."

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by jimj

Hey, don't kill the messenger, I just posted what this lady said in the news interview.
Is it "possible"? I think at this point anything is possible. Heck two years ago I would have never thought the government taking over GM and Chrysler and giving 'em to the unions was possible! The real question, is it likely? I don't know enough about the current status to say either way.

So that begs the question, what if a suit was filed that stopped ALL foreclosures for a period of time like several months and then after this extended period a judge rules in the lenders favor and all this backed up inventory was suddenly released all at once?
Wouldn't this have to have an effect on prices?

I read an article yesterday that said B of A was delaying about 350 foreclosures in AZ. Hardly a "tsunami" or enough to measurably affect prices.

I'd be the last one to defend the banks, I think we should have nationalized them and chopped them to pieces when they came to the treasury for a handout, but the robo-signer issue doesn't apply to AZ. The arguments about title will be interesting fodder for law-school students for decades to come, but to anticipate even one AZ judge giving a deadbeat a "free" house boggles the mind.

I heard an interesting lunchroom conversation today between a couple of Phoenicians discussing the short-sales of their "income" properties. The consensus was, they wanted to give the properties back to the banks, but they wanted to walk away with their credit intact... so they could buy more houses.

Un...Bucking.....felievable!!!

Maybe the doomers are right, and we're skrooed.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

The fight on who gets stuck with the 1.1 Trillion dollar of losses:

"Wall Street's unspoken strategy has been to kick mortgage losses down the road until an economic recovery reinflates the housing market. The faulty-foreclosure crisis has forced the issue back into the present tense, triggering a fight over who will bear the brunt of those losses. The combatants—all of whom are trying to minimize their share of the damage—include homeowners, lenders and mortgage brokers, loan servicers and the underwriters of mortgage-backed securities, the buyers of those securities, title insurers, rating firms, and the federally controlled mortgage buyers Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRD). J.P. Morgan predicts that bondholders will absorb most of the estimated $1.1 trillion loss—"

From Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Mortgage Mess: Shredding the Dream; Major Fight over Enormous Losses Yet to Come

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

The Cromford Report - Rankings



Here is a good summary of City Rankings - Annual Average Sales Price per Square Foot.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Monthly Sales $/SF$81.94 record low10/11/10 Monhtly Sales $/SF as % Peak43.0%record low10/11/10


".... the monthly average sales $/SF recorded a new low on October 11, 2010 having hit bottom for the first time on April 6, 2009 and bounced higher over the following 14 months.
Since we have now dropped below the 2009 low point (if only by a few cents), we have technically recorded a double dip in average pricing per sq. ft. for monthly sales (averaged across all areas & types). The pricing chart seems to be forming a W-shape, although the last upward stroke has yet to appear."

Source: The Cromford Report

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

From http://wpcarey.asu.edu/realestate/up...sale-homes.pdf

"Another significant component of the market was the sale of previously foreclosed property, which accounted for approximately 40 percent of the traditional transactions (4,110 sales). Thus, foreclosure–related activity represented 67 percent of the recorded activity. "

I assume these are flippers.

[Ritchie_az]

The pricing chart seems to be forming a W-shape, although the last upward stroke has yet to appear."

It seems like, though, that most trustworthy people are predicting the "last upward stroke" to appear before years end. I know no one has a crystal ball, but is that the sense you have, as well?