Home prices falling??? Wait to buy? (Phoenix, Avondale: environment, loans, real estate)

[Andre5140]

Yeah, I knew that.

I thought I remember my realtor saying something about how Tempe (the city) was offering some sort of assistance of their own.

[Nice Nice Baby!]

Investors have gone away for over 1 and a half years in Phoenix. They usually want to make their money within two years. With this time frame the fundamentals will burn off the inventory in a year or so, but much remains to be seen with the subprime fallout and loans resetting. That can add some more inventory which in turn will get eaten probably on buyouts. Fundamentals are hurt a little(or more...) from stricter lending guidelines. Facts are also that the local economy is red hot even compared to the rest of the country, and as a whole, the U.S. will continue to be strong across a broad range of multiples. To sum it up, it's a matter of time before we see a balanced market. Don't wait too long or that ship will sail. Like another post said, the wild card is in the rates, and the next 6 months will tell the tale. It takes about 18 months for the fed's Ben Bernanke rate hikes to take complete hold, and they stopped raising the overnight interest rate to 5.25% in June of 2006. Now and until Christmas will be a good time to decide which way this market turns!

[nitram]

The old adage in real estate for buying has been "right now" since they don't make land anymore. Yes some prices may move down, but if you find and make the right deal, within 3-5 years you'll be making money on it. Real estate has been and will always be the best investment you can make, especially over the long haul.

[TurcoLoco]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

From the latest Ive read, the pricing will keep dropping and level off about 4th Quarter 2008. In 2009, they expect house prices to begin appreciating at around 7.7%

I have been researching and checking with multiple RE and Financial sources I have been close with and what you stated matches with the info I kept hearing, the house prices are likely to go down all the way to (at least) the 2nd quarter of 2008. Of course some sellers and loca RE salesman naturally might disagree!

Still, I agree that if you are ready and find a good deal on a house you really like, buying right away would make sense too! Imo, most of 2006 was probably the worst time to buy a house in Phoenix area.

~TL

PS. My personal advice to those who are planning on buying a house: make sure to check your credit rating/report at least 2-3 months prior to applying for a loan. If there are any deragotary accounts on the report, you would have enough time to make correction if possible/applicable. You wouldn't want any surprises showing up on your credit report! After all, higher your credit, lower the interest rate!

[artyst]

i don't believe house prices will drop much more in the valley. they seem to have leveled off. i'm keeping an eye on prices as i will be selling in 2009. it's probably a good time to buy. i've heard prices will start to go up again by 2008.

[imtaya2]

The home prices are leveling off from the supply & demand from a couple of years ago. Homes appreciated because of Investors buying frenzy. Phoenix Market will level off soon which means there will still be home prices going down but not much.

[silvermountain]

I'm not sure about the market. My parents have had their home on the market for over 8 months with no takers (priced well below comps) and I know about 7 other people in the same position.

[Axiom]

You're likely to get plenty of different theories in response to your question, problem is they're just that... theories.

I understand there was an article in the paper just today predicting that we have not hit bottom yet. (I did not see it personally)

I can tell you that our realtor just pulled June stats for us; they're specific to our neighborhood of course, but they're not pretty.

9 cancelled listings after an average of over 200 days on the market
8 expired listings after an average of approx 150 days on the market

There are 58 active listings
That's probably at least a one year inventory, and that's if no one else puts a house up for sale.

Only 2 houses sold the entire month of June

Funny thing is if you break it down into price per sq ft, one of those 2 June sales was the second highest in the neighborhood all year. The other one was the second lowest. Not much help in determining pricing trends.
Go figure



Good Luck with your decision

[Metropolitan Group]

As for what I have seen, housing prices on mid level homes are not as low as they were last year. I run a real estate sales company and our company has already doubled our numbers from last year here in the valley and we are only in July. The increase in inventory is due to the number of people who did not want to list their home last year during the slow year. The one negative thing is that interest rates are the worst they have been over the past 5 years and are rising everyday. That just reinforces the mid-level homes selling better, being that people can't afford the higher priced homes. All in all, still a good time to buy just be ready to deal with the interest rates and the tightened loan programs.

[starchief5]

Hard to know what to believe. Real estate people will tell you that today is the best time to buy - whether it is or not. Who can blame them.

Others will tell you that the worst is yet to come.

Truth is, if we knew when it was the exact right time to buy or sell, we could all get rich in real estate.