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Old 09-16-2010, 08:32 PM
 
Location: Casa Grande, AZ (May 08)
1,707 posts, read 4,328,105 times
Reputation: 1449

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Here is my monthly summary on C-D of the housing sales figures for August as posted by the ARMLS (www.armls.com). As always I have an emphasis on the Pinal County information as that is what is most pertinent to me:

PINAL COUNTY:

Total sales (this is for ENTIRE county):

August 2010 - 751
July 2010 - 676
August 2009 - 871

So we are not at the peak sales activity we once had, but there was a 10% increase from July - albeit July was an EXTREMELY low level as compared to June since the tax credit expired in June. But it is creeping back up.

Possibly because:

Sales prices (again for entire county merged):

August 2010 Average - 104,388
July 2010 Average - 111,566
August 2009 Average - 113,533

August 2010 Median - 92,000
July 2010 Median - 97,950
August 2009 Median - 99,000

Another bit of Information for Pinal County -

Total Active Listings August 2010 - 4012
Total Active Listings July 2010 - 3922
Total Active Listings August 2009 - 3338

Average Listing Price August 2010 - 136,666
Average Listing Price July 2010 - 138,159
Average Listing Price August 2009 - 169,017

Median Listing Price August 2010 - 99,900
Median Listing Price July 2010 - 101,900
Median Listing Price August 2009 - 115,000

So prices on all fronts have come down significantly on a year over year basis in Pinal County. This is a slight deviation from the overall region figure (posted below) where the LISTING prices are actually going UP. I also have posted elsewhere on CD that unscientifically the lisitng prices in MY neighborhood seem to be rising overall. Unfortunately ARMLS does not break down the figures for the public more than for the entire county.

SO, as the prices have come down pretty significantly, SALES ACTIVITY has started to pick up again. In my view this is more evidence of us just rolling along the bottom. Could prices continue to go down even further? Absolutely, but at some point even more people will come into the market as prices are this low - we are back to about 45% of the sales in Pinal last month being CASH sales. Investors are still willing to come in as the price to purchase and maintain is low enough to cash flow homes as rentals.


Regionwide figures pretty much mirror the Pinal stuff with a couple of exceptions.

Regionwide Total Sales - August 2010 - 7358
Regionwide Total Sales - July 2010 - 7100
Regionwide Total Sales August 2009 - 8007

So, again, UP a little month over month but significantly down from earlier in the year of about 9300 per month. Again, the tax credit expiration is likely a huge factor, but numbers are coming back up.

As with Pinal, prices are down regionwide.

Regionwide Average Sales Price - August 2010 - 164,057
Regionwide Average Sales Price - July 2010 - 176,141
Regionwide Average Sale Price - August 2009 - 170,401
(Recent high average was 180,000 in June 2010)

Regionwide Median Sales Price - August 2010 - 119,000
Regionwide Median Sales Price - July 2010 - 125,000
Regionwide Median Sales Price - August 2010 - 126,000
(Recent high Median was 130,000 in May 2010)

So, prices are down overall as well, but again, as the prices dropped the ACTIVITY increased though still off the very high tax credit induced peak of the first quarter of the year.

Here is a little deviation from Pinal I mentioned:

Regionwide New Listings - August 2010 - 12849
Regionwide New Listings - July 2010 - 12,407
Regionwide New Listings - August 2009 - 12403
So, increasing slightly both monthly and yearly, BUT well off the peak new listings of 14k+ of March and April this year. So inventory is NOT slamming the market as some would say - but rather BUYING activity slowed so much the available inventory rose, but again, there was a pick up in August.

Regionwide Median Listing Price - August 2010 - 129,900
Regionwide Median Listing Price - July 2010 - 130,000
(statistically insignificant change)
Regionwide Median Listing Price - August 2009 - 140,000
(Recent high Median Listing was 145K back in January)

So at least on a monthly basis median listing prices seem to be holding. Again, in my view another possible bouncing along the bottom sign.

This view is supported by the AVERAGE listing prices even more:

Regionwide Average Listing Price - August 2010 - 200,763
Regionwide Average Listing Price - July 2010 - 198,715
Regionwide Average Listing Price - August 2009 - 226,811

So, here the listing prices are actually RISING on a monthly basis where they had been coming down significantly every month since the recent highs of 240K or so at the beginning of the year.

It is possible that the stabilization of LISTING prices is due to the higher end stuff coming down in price and the lower end staying the same or even rising. I cannot make that conclusion from the data I have access to here. But, once again, my view is that we are bouncing along a bottom and as prices lower (which still could happen some more!), buyers ARE willing to come in and purchase, whether they be investors or otherwise.

Yes there are still a lot of foreclosures out there to come, BUT at some point those will start to dry up - I mean we are now into year 4 of this mess - and new home construction has REALLY slowed in the last few months since they just cannot compete with these distressed property prices.

SO, do with the info what you wish. Thanks for listening.
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Old 09-16-2010, 08:45 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,021 posts, read 51,026,383 times
Reputation: 28202
The deflationary spiral is now upon us. My office sees prices falling 99% from current levels by Christmas. We are advising our client to wait 10 years before buying to see where the market is going.
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Old 09-16-2010, 09:14 PM
 
Location: Casa Grande, AZ (May 08)
1,707 posts, read 4,328,105 times
Reputation: 1449
Lololololololol!!!!!!
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:28 AM
 
Location: Tempe and Payson
1,216 posts, read 3,022,201 times
Reputation: 1707
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
The deflationary spiral is now upon us. My office sees prices falling 99% from current levels by Christmas. We are advising our client to wait 10 years before buying to see where the market is going.

It's not Halloween just yet, so put that costume away for another couple of weeks and then you can scare the would be homebuyers and your one client.
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