Phoenix area home values- November, 2010 --- (Surprise, Nogales: big home, property taxes, to live in)

[khuntrevor]

Thailand experienced 8% GDP growth last year, with 4 Dollar per gallon gas, I would attribute that too far less restrictions on small businesses. Fortunately, we are in a massive food producing region--California, Mexico, and Arizona. We will easily have first dibs on the best stuff, as trucking it across country will become more expensive. Diesel is already at 3.50+. 5,000,000,000 Kilograms of fresh produce comes through the Nogales Port of Entry every year, mostly from November to June. Phoenix is a very logical destination.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Don't underestimate the impact of fuel prices on consumer sentiment (i.e. the US economic engine). Over 4 for any length of time is going to cause a big consumer pullback. Remember its not just gas. Food inflation, travel, basically the cost of everything will jump in a matter of weeks. Wages haven't moved in years for the middle class and the wealth they had in their homes is already gone. Loca; governments are already near bankruptcy. With no bailouts and stimulus this time, it will deteriorate into depression. Stocks dropped 2-3% today and it hasn't even happened yet. This won't be a double dip; it will be a global plunge into the abyss.

Chin up Pondorosa. The Middle East aside, realize that fuel prices are going to go up again when the world economy heals (so it's now or later). The reality is the USA consumed 25% of the world's energy with about 4% of the population. Now China, India and others are coming on board STRONG and that fact alone will be pushing energy prices back up. Then of course our devalued dollar will cause the fuel costs to rise again. When the cost of a barrel of oil rises long term, there are solutions and substitutes. We aren't going into a world wide depression over some Middle East 20-30 year olds protesting that they don't have jobs. Let it play out and we can all go back to watching the Office and American Idol.

The reality is big trucks and SUV's will be hard to sell again WHEN it happens. Remember not-so-long-ago when gas was $4 a gallon?? People shelved their gas guzzlers and drove around in cracker jack boxes. IN MN where seemingly every other vehicle is a truck or SUV, the gas pumps didn't see many of them when it was $4 a gallon. When gas came back down, they suddenly re-appeared. People will adapt. Another 75 cents a gallon and some higher prices in all categories will hurt but it won't be a catastrophy. I agree that the 10% of the population that is teetering might be forced to go back and live with Mom and Dad but as I said, people will adapt.

There was never a doubt in my mind that gas was going to return to $4 a gallon because of the emerging nations consuming more and more. The devalued dollar was the icing on the cake. If the Middle East protests make it so the gas gets back to $4 quicker then so be it. That sure the heck doesn't mean that our economy is going to collapse.

At any given time, we can scare the crap out of ourselves. We were in bad shape in March of 2009 but $4 a gallon isn't going to kill the economy. If gas goes to $4 a gallon, some people might actually consider car pooling or buying a smaller car next time!

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by aliveandwellinSA

Certainly appears NAR cannot be trusted.

Real Exaggerations: NAR has been overstating home sales for a decade | Bay Area Real Estate Trends

The Cromford Reports cannot be compared with the NAR reports. The information is compiled differently.

According to the article, NAR was apparently using a benchmark multiplier to adjust for MLSs that they aren’t getting data from, and supposedly that benchmark hasn’t been calibrated since 2004.

The Cromford Report is only local, and they use data from the ARMLS, and also from the Public Records, which would pull in non-MLS sales. They don't do any benchmarking. They're using raw data.

While it's important to know what's happening in the national real estate market it's equally, if not more, important to know what's happening in our own Phoenix Metro market, the market for one's city, zip code, and down to the neighborhood.

Example:

Current Average Sold Price per Square Foot:

Phoenix Metro .....................$87.43
.....Zip Code 85033..................................$28.24
.....Zip Code 85028..................................$114.71

Paradise Valley.....................$295.18

Scottsdale.............................$171.73
.....Zip Code 85254.................................$125.76
.....Zip Code 85260.................................$147.23
.....Zip Code 85255.................................$198.05

Chandler.................................$91.24
.....Zip Code 85248..................................$116.59

Queen Creek.......................... $54.86

Gilbert......................................$85.99
.....85298........................................ ..........$91.31
.....85233........................................ ..........$85.12
.....85234........................................ ..........$82.90
.........Circle G Ranches at Riggs.................$133.81
.........Val Vista Lakes (non-waterfront)........$96.58

The examples are only meant to show the differences in sold prices in various cities compared to the overall Phoenix Metro average of $87.43.

The same variation will apply to the inventory and number of sales (supply and demand) for each area.

Because of the vast differences in local areas, one cannot look at the metropolitan area average and feel that one size fits all.

• $87.43/sf is Phoenix Metro average price per square foot
• $198.05/sf Scottsdale Dynamite area
• $28.24/sf Maryvale area

In my opinion, one should take into account the:

• World Economics
• National Economics
• Metro area Economics
• National real estate market
• Metro area real estate market
• City, zip code, community, real estate market
• Supply-demand-price and trends)

It's when we study all that's happening, the statistics; both the positive and the negative news; and look at the trends that develop, that we're better able to judge for ourselves what may happen in the future.

In terms of making a buying decision, after carefully studying the market, each person can better decide if they buy now they're catching a falling knife, or if they're making a sound investment that will pay dividends 5-10 years from now.

There are people in both camps.

Those that study the most will probably make the better decision for themselves, whatever that decision is.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Chin up Pondorosa. ...

...At any given time, we can scare the crap out of ourselves. We were in bad shape in March of 2009 but $4 a gallon isn't going to kill the economy. If gas goes to $4 a gallon, some people might actually consider car pooling or buying a smaller car next time!

I recall seeing a lot of motor scooters during that time; both men and women with and without helmets. Then as prices went back down, the scooters disappeared. I've been watching to see if they get pulled back out of the garages now.

Here's an example of the ads that are appearing:

"Rising fuel prices are just another reason that thousands of Americans have purchased a motor scooter, or are seriously considering one... The motorscooter has definitely become a standard mode of transportation, far exceeding projections of scooter sales the last several years."

If it gets worse maybe I'll trade my Town Car in on a motor scooter and take my clients to show houses on it. I'll just need to buy two helmets

Seriously, there is no way that I would get on a motor scooter, or a motorcycle. I had several friends and a relative get killed on them when I was young.

My ex son in law had a spill on a Harley and my daughter who was with him had some serious skin damage, but recovered. Another time I happened to see a car pull out in front of my son in law near our home. The front of his bike hit the car and he ended up on the hood, pounding on the windshield and cursing the driver. Fortunately he was at a slow speed and braked before the collision and wasn't injured. But it did some damage to his bike.

Guess I'll stick to my Town Car, so my clients can be comfortable.

[madmmac]

The US has the largest oil reserves in the world. They are banking it.

When the price point starts to truly impact the US economy they will open the bank. Why use ours when we can use somebody else's.

I inherited the mineral rights to 5 capped oil wells in North Dakota. The oil company sends me a check every month just to have them there. They want to drill and cap more and increase my check. Sounds like a good plan to me.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

I recall seeing a lot of motor scooters during that time; both men and women with and without helmets. Then as prices went back down, the scooters disappeared. I've been watching to see if they get pulled back out of the garages now.

Here's an example of the ads that are appearing:

"Rising fuel prices are just another reason that thousands of Americans have purchased a motor scooter, or are seriously considering one... The motorscooter has definitely become a standard mode of transportation, far exceeding projections of scooter sales the last several years."

If it gets worse maybe I'll trade my Town Car in on a motor scooter and take my clients to show houses on it. I'll just need to buy two helmets

Seriously, there is no way that I would get on a motor scooter, or a motorcycle. I had several friends and a relative get killed on them when I was young.

My ex son in law had a spill on a Harley and my daughter who was with him had some serious skin damage, but recovered. Another time I happened to see a car pull out in front of my son in law near our home. The front of his bike hit the car and he ended up on the hood, pounding on the windshield and cursing the driver. Fortunately he was at a slow speed and braked before the collision and wasn't injured. But it did some damage to his bike.

Guess I'll stick to my Town Car, so my clients can be comfortable.

Scooters, huh? We're getting more like China and they are buying Buicks and getting more like us. For them, it's prosperity, for us, depression. Looks like mud huts not McMansions are in our future.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by madmmac

The US has the largest oil reserves in the world. They are banking it.

When the price point starts to truly impact the US economy they will open the bank. Why use ours when we can use somebody else's.

I inherited the mineral rights to 5 capped oil wells in North Dakota. The oil company sends me a check every month just to have them there. They want to drill and cap more and increase my check. Sounds like a good plan to me.

It seems that oil and scarfs have a lot in common!

North Dakota Man:




Man From The Middle East:



Hummmmm.....

[Captain Bill]

Thar's Gloom, Dispair and Agony Everywhar.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ5ob9B9yD4

[Pretzelogik]

Originally Posted by GreenNorthwestScott

Zillow: Phoenix home values drop again | Phoenix Business Journal

Highlights (or lowlights):

* Home values in Phoenix dropped by almost three times the National Average, falling 12.8 percent over the year to hit a median of $131,400

* On a quarterly basis, Phoenix home values dropped 4.1 percent in the third quarter -- more than triple the national average of 1.2 percent

* 68.4% of Phoenix homeowners are underwater which is the largest amount of the 25 largest metro areas covered by Zillow. Orlando FL was next worst with 64.2% owing more than their home's value. (you have to click the link at articles end for a full recap with these numbers)

Be thankful those same Canadians that some like to ridicule (550 KFYI) are down here buying. Otherwise the numbers would be worse.

Buy low...sell high...that's the name of da game.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

Thar's Gloom, Dispair and Agony Everywhar.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ5ob9B9yD4

Crude passed 100 a while ago. We'll see $4 in a week or so and $6 within a month at this rate. If Saudi Arabia goes then $8 is possible along with lines. Kiss the recovery in housing goodbye. Great Depression II is around the corner.