Monthly ARMLS October Stats out - UP month over month (Phoenix: sales, credit)

[sh9730]

So, the ARMLS monthly stats for October out (www.armls.com).

Contrary to what some (and in particular one C-D poster) has been saying, both the Median AND Average month over month pricing shows slight INCREASES regionwide, though they are still down year over year.

Regionwide October 2010 AVG selling price - 163,303
Regionwide September 2010 AVG selling price - 159,824
Regionwide October 2009 AVG selling price - 170,086

Recent Regionwide high AVG was back in June 2010 at just shy of 180,000. SO, though we are off about 10% from the peak earlier this year...we are NOT continuing the slide that some have been indicating.

On a MEDIAN sales price basis, the decrease from peak is even less, and this measure has ALSO STABILIZED and is going up in recent months.

Regionwide October 2010 Median Sales price - 120,000
Regionwide September 2010 Median Sales price - 119,500 (August was 119,000)
Regionwide October 2009 Median Sales price - 128,000

The recent Median sales price peak was back in May 2010 at 130,000. So on Median basis the decreases from peak and year over year are even LESS than the Average sales price decreases ( Median down 6+% vs the Avg down 10% ).

I am NOT saying any of this is great news....and there are exceptions!

Unfortunately down in Pinal county the drops are more dramatic...

Pinal Median Oct 2010 - 88,000
Pinal Median Sept 2010 - 97,900
Pinal Median Oct 2009 - 100,000

So, down about 12% year over year....not good...but again, this covers ALL of Pinal county and there are wide discrepancies in neighborhoods.

Pinal Avg Oct 2010 - 99,789
Pinal Avg Sept 2010 - 107,376
Pinal Avg Oct 2009 - 109,052

So about 10% down year over year....same as regionwide..

But, I see no indication of any 26% decrease in these numbers....

FWIW....

[susan9240]

Thanks for posting this, a lot of people on this forum seem to have nothing but negative things to say about Phoenix, it gets really old.

[sh9730]

A little additional information to be fair - sales NUMBERS are down both month over month and substancially year over year.

Regionwide total sales Oct 2010 - 6593
Regionwide total sales Sept 2010 - 6764
Regionwide total sales Oct 2010 - 8100

Sales totals are also WELL off their peak of earlier in the year (several months over 9000 per month during the tax credits).

Pinal County Oct 2010 total sales - 638
Pinal County Sept 2010 total sales - 691
Pinal County Oct 2009 total sales - 869

There were several months earlier in the year in the mid 900s per month in Pinal County.

BUT, the total listings (inventory) is going DOWN on both a regionwide and Pinal County basis.

Total new listings Oct 2010 Regionwide - 12,054
Total new listing Sept 2010 Regionwide - 12,601
Total new listings Oct 2010 Regionwide - 13,099

Pinal County listings Oct 2010 - 4107
Pinal County listings Sept 2010 - 4168

Finally, Average ASKING prices Regionwide are also going UP month over month:

Oct 2010 - 212,035
Sept 2010 - 207,858

Recent low asking prices were 198,715 back in July 2010.

Median ASKING prices Regionwide are basically stable:

Oct 2010 - 129,900
Sept 2010 - 130,000
Aug 2010 - 129,900
July 2010 - 130,00
Oct 2009 - 148,844 (so year over year things are still down better than 10%)

Pinal County asking prices are also basically stable.

[EnicAZ]

It is unfortunate that October will be the last of any positive news in the housing market. The ARMLS data for pending sales prices continues to decline, with losses of $18,000 on the average price going into February. This ARMLS prediction for 10%+ home value declines in the next 4 months alone is posted on the website. I hope that sales don't continue to stay 20% last year's levels, as this drives down market interest as well.

[sh9730]

Enic,

Well...I find your first posts on this whole topic in other threads seem to start in late August and you were predicting a better than 26% decline THIS YEAR from June levels. So far we are down 10% from that artificially induced high (due to the tax credits), BUT recent price trends (that are published publicly at least) are pointing UP (sales prices and asking prices). In addition inventory levels are going DOWN albeit by slight numbers.

I just dont happen to agree that we are going to drop another 15% in the two months since these last full month numbers.

And of course ALL of these numbers are very volatile due to the housing mix, neighborhoods selling etc etc...

I did not say things were GOOD. Just my view (and has been for months) that we are bouncing up and down along a bottom.

You obviously disagree. Thats fine.