Wow...have you guys seen the weather forecast for this week? (Phoenix: metropolitan area, average)

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

As I stated, reality has re-entered the picture. Thank you for the updated report. Every year, we get these doom and gloom weather reports and it's almost always a false alarm. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case again.

I don't know what you mean by "reality". I guess you have your own. The forecast is what it is and it has not changed significantly. This is from the evening summary. As you can see, snow levels are still predicted down to possibly 2000 feet and temps below freezing are predicted at the airport meaning low 20s are possible in outlying suburbs. No change basically:

THE LOW CENTER...AND COLDEST TEMPS...WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNTIL LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SNOW LEVELS STARTING OUT AROUND 5000
FEET...AND LOWERING TO 2000-2500 FEET BY 12Z THU. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER WATCH FOR AZ024 /TONTO NATIONAL FORECAST FOOTHILLS
AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/ ABOVE 4500 FEET FOR 12Z THU TO 00Z FRI.
ALTHOUGH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 2000 FEET BY
EARLY THU...ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 3000 FEET AND
ABOVE. BY THEN...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
EASTWARD...REPLACED BY MUCH DRIER AIR / MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS OF
5 G/KG DROPPING TO 1.5 G/KG BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP CONSIDERABLY FRI MORNING COMPARED TO
THU MORNING...DOWN 20 DEGREES WITH WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE DESERTS...TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI
MORNING...AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF AND
KEEP THE FOCUS ON THE WIND/PRECIP/SNOW FOR NOW. OVERALL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST IN PLACE...AS MODELS AND
FORECAST CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A VERY STRONG COLD WET WINTER STORM
FOR MUCH OF CA AND AZ STARTING TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH FRI.


Seems that places like New River, Anthem, Carefree and Fountain Hills could see snow in the air if not on the cactus. There may be snow on the higher peaks around PHX too, like Estrellas and McDowells. This is not an every year occurrence. Could they be wrong? Of course, it's a forecast not a certainty.

I don't get why you are in denial mode about this. I think the prospect of a good storm is exciting. I will be protecting my plants too, though I don't expect it to get so cold as it was in 2007.

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I don't know what you mean by "reality". I guess you have your own. The forecast is what it is and it has not changed significantly.
I don't get why you are in denial mode about this. I think the prospect of a good storm is exciting. I will be protecting my plants too, though I don't expect it to get so cold as it was in 2007.

I think it's laughable how there are multiple weather reports that contradicted your report yet you insist yours is correct and continue to ignore these others as if they don't exist. The question is, if your weather report fails to become a reality, are you going to come back on this thread and admit your report was faulty? I'm guessing you won't. I'm not in denial, I'm just a realist. People get overzealous about the weather on this forum regardless if it's some exaggerated claims about heat or cold. This is nothing new. I just think it's funny how guys like you get so excited and act like there is going to be this snow storm in Phoenix. LOL I'm not saying it won't get cold but temps in the 20's with snow, sorry not buying that.

p.s. Consider that your report was written yesterday and claimed it would begin today...not looking good for you so far

[HX_Guy]

I don't see it as doom and gloom, I find it pretty exciting actually, same as when we get a really strong storm in the summer.

At Weather.com there is now a Severe Weather Warning posted. They may be right, they may not...I guess we'll see over the next couple days.

Moderator cut: Please post links instead of full text.

[Valley Native]

Here is what the forecast discussion said earlier today about the moisture with this upcoming storm:

AGAIN...THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...
INCLUDING PHOENIX...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SUPPORT
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1/2 INCH IN THE
PHOENIX VALLEYS...TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES IN THE UPSLOPE MTN AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX WED EVENING. THIS IS OUR BEST ESTIMATE BASED ON
COLLISION COALESCENCE/CLOUD PHYSICS LOCAL RAINFALL STUDIES.

All I can say is: I'll believe it when I see it. Too many of these storms turn out to be duds. The funny thing is that they're comparing this upcoming arctic blast to the one of January, 2007. If I remember correctly, that so called storm was supposed to bring in some moisture too, but never happened. What occurred instead was dry air and one of the hardest freezes in many years. If this cold snap will be anything remotely close to the one in 2007, then serious protection of vegetation is going to be needed. Below freezing temps are not what I'm looking forward to with the potential damage to plants & citrus.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

I think it's laughable how there are multiple weather reports that contradicted your report yet you insist yours is correct and continue to ignore these others as if they don't exist. The question is, if your weather report fails to become a reality, are you going to come back on this thread and admit your report was faulty? I'm guessing you won't. I'm not in denial, I'm just a realist. People get overzealous about the weather on this forum regardless if it's some exaggerated claims about heat or cold. This is nothing new. I just think it's funny how guys like you get so excited and act like there is going to be this snow storm in Phoenix. LOL I'm not saying it won't get cold but temps in the 20's with snow, sorry not buying that.

p.s. Consider that your report was written yesterday and claimed it would begin today...not looking good for you so far

"My forecast" is the one from the National Weather Service. I put the NWS discussion on a couple days ago because people who are new here need to appreciate that is can and does get very cold at time. All of the other forecasts have been consistent with it.

The one you jumped on as "reality" earlier in the thread was an older one that did not reflect the new developments in the latest computer modeling. No one said it is going to be a snow storm in Phoenix. Every respected weather source has said it is going to be cold and there may even be some flakes in the higher areas. You think it is hype. I guess that does not square with your obsessive cheerleading about the area somehow so you have trouble getting your arms around it.

In any case, people would be well-advised to keep an eye on if the forecast stays on course for cold temps. The temps in some outlying areas will run 10 or more degrees below the ones forecast for the airport. There is a lot of vegetation that can be damaged or destroyed. MY forecast, not the NWS, is that it is not going to be as cold as model runs suggest because of saturated soils. But it will be cold enough to damage the more sensitive plants.

The current National Weather Service forecast is for a low of 28 at the airport Thursday night and a freeze warning was issued this morning. We will see.

[Ritchie_az]

I would like to see a dusting of snow on the tops of the Estrellas, White Tanks, etc, I just think it may be five degrees too warm. I'm still hoping....

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

I would like to see a dusting of snow on the tops of the Estrellas, White Tanks, etc, I just think it may be five degrees too warm. I'm still hoping....

I doubt it as well. By the time the cold air comes in we will have been dry-slotted with the moisture to the east of us. Better chance in the northside mtns.

[crazyme4878]

I just talked to my husband and he says that they are calling for 100% chance of weather.

Currently snowing at 5100 feet. Bring it on!

[Phxguy]

Only 12 more degrees it has to drop before the snow falls in Phoenix!!

[roosevelt]

My lantanas, hibiscus and miniature feather palms are going to freeze and die back. Last time was in 2007. Also my Tipu tree. Covering did not help at all last time. I had to put barriers on my sidewalk to keep people off because of the slippery ice.