Housing Prices (Phoenix, Chandler: real estate market, loan, house)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

Respectfully, I disagree - there are quite a few properties out there in the city of Phoenix that will throw off cash every month and still have a good shot at appreciation as well, but they are in the lower price ranges - which took a much bigger hit in values than the upper ranges did.

One could argue that a home like the one in the example above still has a very real chance of falling another $100k, whereas, homes with similar bubble values in Phoenix have already taken that hit - and consequently ... their taxes went down as well...

As for the 10% prediction - meh, who cares? In many areas of the city we've already lost 70% of the bubble values - another 10% off something that's already fallen 70%... it's a nothingburger.

Bingo!

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by oldtrader

The best experts tell us, that the prices in Phoenix will drop another 10% in 2011 over 2010..

I personally talk with "the best experts" versus quoting Trulia. The person I talked dozens of times over the years is a good customer of mine (think Washington DC). He is paid to model the risks and is a Chief Economist of a company that you have heard of. I know several economists at the Fed, the IMF and other high power VIP's. In fairness, they are not exactly accurate. In January, that best "expert" predicted that Phoenix would bottom this spring. He also said there are too many variables to nail the date. He recommended to only buy a deal to mitigate the risks. That's what I did. He also told me he was looking to buy a vacation home out east on the ocean. But he stressed there is NO SENSE OF URGENCY TO BUY (he would only buy if he bought belowe market) in the next year or so. I read that loud and clear.

I can also talk with equally qualified people who think that there is another 10% to go (bla bla bla). Hell, I can point you to some people that think the entire economy is going to tank. Those people are equally as smart. Who is right?? Time will tell. But to make a statement that "the best experts tell us" is positively not any more credible than my "expert". You are calling "the best experts" the people that you agree with. I'm saying that no one knows and I can see it go either way. So like Zippy I respectively disagree.

[Boompa]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

Nah - it's worse in many places (high tax states) with about zero chance of recovery... ever.

Phoenix's entire history is booms and busts - this was a bigger boom, so the bust is bigger - history repeats itself, and nothing lasts forever.

NO, Phoenix came in number #2 from the Bottom
The top two were Seattle and Phildelphia where prices went up
Taxes have nothing to do with it. Prices here are still below replacement costs making it cheaper to just burn them down

[phoenix_new]

I recently bought a house in Chandler, for me, it was dificult to find a house with a pool, infact the inventory is going down

[Stokes172]

I just bought a house in a N Phoenix neighborhood. It was the only one on the block available.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by oldtrader

The best experts tell us, that the prices in Phoenix will drop another 10% in 2011 over 2010.

In March, the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service Inc. (MLS) had its median Pending Price Index near $95,000. See http://ktar.com/?sid=1392124&nid=6

It didn't drop, it went up. Strike that "expert" because he was off by 20%.

Some parameters are getting better. For the second month in a row, Phoenix-area housing market saw a drop in the foreclosure rate. Also inventory dropped by 30% Valley wide. See Phoenix-area foreclosure rate continues to drop | ASU News But, "There’s probably more of the storm to go through, and we could see another wave of foreclosures". No kidding. Thanks Professor!

The reason why Phoenix homes are getting mopped up quicker than most "experts" predicted is because of the affordability index. That's index is skyrocketing because the number of people who can afford to buy a house at the median price is increasing. This is why so many investors, retirees, and 2nd home owners like myself are coming in from all over the world to mop up the oversupply. 45% of the buys are paying CASH.

We do have THOUSANDS upon THOUSANDS of foreclosures to go but the affordability index is stopping the slide. While I could easily picture things turning for the worse, I am not surprised how this is all playing out. I am also assume some of these gains will be given up as we come into the slower season. It happens nearly every year. Some time in the not so distant future, the prices of homes WILL be a lot higher in the Valley. That's why people are buying them from other parts of the country.

While we are making fun of "experts", this guy also got it wrong: ""(in 2009) We all just need to hang on," says Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics, an economic consulting firm. "By late in the year, the economy will be moving up, and 2010 should be a recovery year." See Forecasters share predictions for economy's outlook in 2009 - USATODAY.com . Strike that "expert" too.

Wait! These experts predict that the Phoenix housing market won't heal until 2015. See Phoenix's housing recovery not expect until 2015 Of course in 2009, these "experts" predict housing would recover in 2012.

I get the feeling that all of these "experts" missed the severity of the housing bust so bad that they are finally overshooting their recovery predictions so that they can save face.

Here is my message. The "experts" have a way of getting it wrong more often than not. Do your own research. But I will say if you wait for a year, you won't be hurt all that much even if rates climb and the market tightens up some. If you are worried about multiple bids, make your bids in December and January. All things being equal, the price of housing in December and January is always down because the demand is softer.

[jimj]

I agree with MN. These experts are actually worse than weathermen when it comes to predictions.

We bought a 5 year old tract house for less than 1/2 of the current replacement cost. I looked at it this way, we only plan on staying in AZ for a few years at most where we will leave for the south. If at that time houses have raised in value cool, we'll take the extra $$ and bank it. If they've stayed flat that's fine too as we're paying less than renting and getting some tax benefits not to mention you have to live somewhere right?
Now if they've dropped there's a couple of options for that as well.
1.Rent it out assuming there's any economy left.
2.Hopefully we'd have paid down the mortgage enough to absorb the drop and just equate it to a rental and move on.
3.Lease option it out.
4.Walk away. This option is absolutely the LAST resort, kind of the nuclear option only to be used if none of the other options are workable.
We're only in it a few grand so it'd be no biggie except the credit hit and if it came to the point of walking I doubt I'd ever want to get wound up in a house again.

[Captain Bill]

MLS 4560713 - $81 psf

I just picked this one of those listings to check out.

The status is AWC-I and has been since 4-12-2011. That's the problem with searching on a third party search site; they don't update the listings on a regular basis.

AWC-I (Seller Written Instructions) means the home is a short sale and the seller has accepted an offer which is being negotiated with the bank(s).

That home is located in zip code 85286 which is a good area of Chandler. It's south of 85225 which is not as desirable as 85286. It's close to the 202 for commuters.

The photos indicate the home is in good condition.

I can't provide an opinion of the value of a home without visiting the home and doing a study of the area. However, I can tell you that the average price per square foot in Chandler is currently $91.91.

Also, while the listing is priced at $81 per square foot, the banks may hold out for a higher than list price. The bank does not have to agree to the price that's listed, even if it's listed at the current As Is value.

[Boompa]

Originally Posted by phoenix_new

I recently bought a house in Chandler, for me, it was dificult to find a house with a pool, infact the inventory is going down

What did you pay per sq ft?

[Vlajos]

I think only Vegas is worse according the Case Schiller Index.