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Old 11-14-2011, 07:38 AM
 
153 posts, read 115,168 times
Reputation: 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
I have to apologize, but it takes me a lot of time to research and type the data. Therefore, it is impossible for me to provide specific data for individuals on the forum due to the amount of time it takes to gather and type the data.

The amount of time I can spend providing data on a forum is limited; and for the ranges that were lumped in, the percentages were so close that it was not worth taking the time to type them all. The percentages change daily anyway, and are not representative of every city, zip code or community. The information is general in nature and should not be used by anyone to make a buy/sell decision.

If you're in the process of buying or selling a home, then your Realtor can provide you with all the detailed data you need. I do that for my clients.
Didn't mean to burden you. Sorry. I just figured with all the other numbers you threw up there for all the other categories, that the $150,000 to $250,000 category was accidentally left out since every other price category was included in your list. I don't expect you to do anything additional for me, of course.

That said, the $150,000 to $250,000 category is an important chunk of the Phoenix market, so it's absense makes the set of numbers you posted for the other price categories a bit less useful in showing what's going on in Phoenix.
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Old 11-14-2011, 08:24 AM
 
153 posts, read 115,168 times
Reputation: 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
I tried to rep you but I guess our minds think too much alike.

Everyone reads the tea leaves differently. About 1.5-2.5 years ago, I was rather sure the Phoenix market was going to drop and I posted accordingly.

Some people currently think the overall Phoenix RE market will rise while others think it will fall. My take on it is we mightof had our last correction early last Spring (for most prices and locations). If the market hold in there for the next couple of months, I will predict it will be up again Spring of 2012 (5-7%). Our economy is rather volatile so anyone who makes statements with conviction is talking out of their butt.

People need to remember that if something goes down 50% and later goes up by 50%, the value is not even close to the same. So if I think it will go up 5% by next spring that's only $8K. If additional distressed inventory slows down, I predict there are a lot of people just waiting to pounce on some super cheap deals. In summary, I can see the storm ending though the clouds. If June of 2011 taught us anything (almost 10,000 home sales in a single month) inventory can dry-up fast.

So this is why my gut tells me that there is a higher probability of things getting better than worse. If we switched markets to MN where I also live, I would present a completely different picture.
Maybe we think alike because I'm Minnesota born and raised also.

I tend to think that the Phoenix market isn't going to move up or down a lot for awhile, given all the uncertainty and various indicators pointing different directions. I don't think buyers are going to be willing to pony up much more than they are now, and sellers aren't going to be willing to go much lower than they are now. With the huge caveat that larger economic forces (national, global), could be a driver in unknown ways.

Thought this was a reasonable outlook from redfin:
It’s Not a Monster Truck Rally, It’s A Real Estate Market | Redfin Corporate Blog
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Old 11-14-2011, 11:54 AM
 
1,289 posts, read 1,511,563 times
Reputation: 725
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
I looked at the last few posts and I didn't see where anyone said "real estate is in a 'strong upward pricing trend'.
Quote is from the beloved Cromford Report in which you cherry picked the comment ... http://www.city-data.com/forum/21669062-post53.html
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Old 11-14-2011, 12:27 PM
 
10 posts, read 15,787 times
Reputation: 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
This update for the Phoenix Real Estate Market covers cities in Maricopa and Pinal Counties, and include major cities like Gilbert, Chandler, Mesa, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Surprise, Goodyear, Glendale, and others.

Recently I attended a Real Estate Summit with a panel of experts in various real estate fields discussing the current Phoenix market conditions. I’ll share some of the information and viewpoints of this panel, along with some current statistics and personal opinions.

The monthly average sales price per square foot increased in a number of cities, especially those where investors are buying rental properties.
  • Tolleson average monthly sales price per sq. ft increased from $41.98 in April to $46.12.
    .
  • El Mirage from $41.53 to $49.16
    .
  • Maricopa city from $41 to $47 per sq. ft . 10% increase in just 2 months
    .
  • The pending listings average price per sq. ft. (for all areas & types) is above
    $80 for the first time since June 15.
The earlier consensus was that we would see price declines during the slow season, but now we’re seeing increases.

Median Sale Prices Single Family Detached

Mesa
Aug 30…. $105,000….
Oct 27…..$112,900 (+)

Gilbert
Aug 26….$160,000
Oct 27,… $167,000 (+)

Chandler
Aug 23…$154,200
Oct 27….$168,000 (+)

Scottsdale
Aug 25….$375,000
Oct 27…..$337,000 (-)

Surprise
Aug 25….$118,000
Oct 27.….$119,400 (+)

Phoenix
Aug 15..…$83,000
Oct 27..….$92,000 (+)

(Sorry, but I can’t take the time to provide prices for every city in the valley, so in fairness to everyone else, please do not ask me to provide data for your particular city.)

Jobs Are an Important Factor in our Real Estate Recovery

Here is a list of the largest employers in the Phoenix area. They have entry-level positions plus admin and professional jobs, and it's said that they almost always have openings in some positions:.

  • Wall Mart.....30,000+ employees
  • Banner Health...20,000+
  • Wells Fargo...13,000
  • Honeywell...12,000+
  • Bashas...12,000
  • Apolla Group... 10,000 and increasing
  • Intel...10,000 and increasing
  • US Airways ...9,000+
  • Target...9,000+
  • Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold...7,000+
  • JP Morgan Chase...7,000
  • American Express...7,000+
  • Catholic Healthcare...7,000+
  • Scottsdale Healthcare...6,000+
  • Pinnacle West Capital...6,000+
  • We hear that Winn-Dixie is expanding in Phoenix
General Motors Proving Grounds Project:

This development consisting of one or two major resort hotels, a huge convention center with 365,000 square feet; a championship golf course; hi tech industry, light industrial, commercial, office and residential housing will create 100,000 jobs. Gaylord (who developed Opryland) is scheduled to begin hotel construction by the end of 2012.

Mormon Temple in Gilbert:

This project is underway and has created jobs. It will attract visitors from all over the country, benefiting local businesses and tax revenue, plus helping to increase property values.

The Construction Trend is up

Developers need to build. It's stated that it's cheaper for them to build and sell close to break-even than to hold vacant land now. This is creating construction jobs.

Foreclosures are Declining - Traditional Sales Increasing

September 2010 Single Family Resale Homes
Traditional Sales......... 4,895
Foreclosure Sales........4,110

September 2011
Traditional Sales.........4,110
Foreclosure Sales.......2,295

Foreclosure Filings (NOTS) are Down 39.47%

Sept 2010.... 7,500
Sept 2911.....4,540
Most of the ARMS have reset

Bank Owned Inventory Still Declining

May 2011..........19,000
Oct 31, 2011.....10,242 Interest Rates are at a 60-70 Year Low
This includes bank owned homes that are listed on the MLS, and those that have not been listed.

There are many factors that determine the home buying decision.

Inflation is One Factor:

Jan 2011 Inflation Rate......1.63%
Sep 2011 Inflation Rate.....3.87% and has been increasing steadily

It is thought that a little inflation rate may be good for real estate. People will use real estate as a vehicle to keep up with inflation.

Renters Will Become Buyers

In two years many people who are renting today will probably want to buy. (Part of the Pent-Up Demand)

25 Cities in the Metro area have an "Own or Rent" ratio from 5 at Florence to 15.8 at Fountain Hills.
  • Ratio of 1-15: Owning less expensive than Renting
  • Ration 16- 20: Renting makes more sense but buying may make sense depending on the circumstances
  • Over 20: Renting less expensive than buying.
Retiring and Relocating
  • Relocating for job transfer, new job, or to find the sun is a huge reason people move to Phoenix.
    .
  • Retiring is another huge reason people relocate to Phoenix
    .
  • The Baby Boomers are were born into the wealthiest generation history and the first one turned 65 on Jan 1, 2011. They will be turning 65 for another 18 years and should be a major factor in the Phoenix housing market.
Some Economic Factors
  • Retail Sales Are Up
  • Tax revenue is up
  • The Euro problem is solved now, (but still remains volatile)
  • The GDP is up 2.5%
  • The stock market is up 5% for the year
Robo Signing is Not a Factor in Phoenix

Robo signing applies mostly to states with only Judicial Foreclosure. Most of AZ foreclosures are non-judicial.

Distressed Sales as Percentage of the Market
  • 2010.....75% of market
  • 2011.....64% of market
  • The norm for distressed sales is around 10% of the market
Issues Preventing Many Buyers from Entering Market Now
  • Financing is extremely tight and difficult
  • Underwriters are overly cautious
  • Appraisals are extremely conservative
  • Negative news giving old and inaccurate information
  • Unsure of world and national economy
  • Waiting for the bottom (attempting to time the market)
  • Waiting for credit to improve after a foreclosure
  • Can't sell their house to relocate
Pent Up Demand

While the market is being fueled today by investors who understand the low prices, there is a huge market that is holding back. At some point these people will jump back in the market. It may be when the mortgage companies loosen up to a reasonable level; when people gain more confidence in the economy; or when they realize the bottom has passed.

When these people do come back in, there will probably be an increase in sales in the higher price ranges, stabilizing that market, and a further increase in sales and prices in the lower ranges that have been stable for 2 years and are now seeing some increases (in the slow season)

Thank you C'tain..
I'm also getting a feeling things are turning around. I bought a 4/3 >2200 SF beautiful house (which I'm renting out) in a nice area in Chandler in June this yr, and now I'm looking at houses smaller and less attractive than mine selling for 20K more.
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Old 11-14-2011, 01:22 PM
 
Location: Gilbert - Val Vista Lakes
6,066 posts, read 8,037,599 times
Reputation: 3657
Quote:
Originally Posted by actinic View Post
Quote is from the beloved Cromford Report in which you cherry picked the comment ... http://www.city-data.com/forum/21669062-post53.html
There is a ton of data on the Cromford Report and all of that data is available to anyone for a reasonable subscription fee. You're quite welcome to go there and pick out any data you wish.

It would be worth it for anyone contemplating buying or selling a home to buy a one year subscription to the Cromford Report and get all the data they can use, and more, and not have to worry about someone cherry picking.

I might add that only a portion of the data on my post you linked to is from the Cromford Report. Much of it is data that I have researched from other sources, and all those sources are available to the public. I spend a lot of time studying the data and researching the market, and what is happening in the local areas that will affect our economy and the real estate industry. That way I have a lot of information to provide my clients to better help them understand the market and make educated decisions.

Then I provide that information to City-Data for the benefit of those who are interested in learning more about what is happening in this market.

You see, I know that there are very few people who know anything about the General Motors Proving Grounds Project, or what that project will mean to all the surrounding cities like San Tan Valley, Queen Creek, Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, and beyond. They don't know what affect it will have on the Mesa airport that will be bringing other airlines to be based there; nor the effect it will have on the Gateway Growth Area in Gilbert.

Many people can't imagine the impact the Mormon Temple in Gilbert is having and will have on the local economy in Gilbert. Many weren't even aware it was being built. So they won't have any idea of the economical impact it will have on the San Tan Growth Area in Gilbert.

Since I do know that many C-D readers actually read and understand what I post, and appreciate it,
I'll keep providing information. I also know there are many like yourself who may not appreciate the data, or take the time to understand what it's saying; and may feel that I'm cherry picking. And that is ok with me; I've grown accustomed to that.

Since we're on the subject of cherry picking,
below is a current chart courtesy of the Cromford Report showing an increase in price per square foot for the Phoenix Metro area, all types residence. It's from Sept 12, through Nov 13.
Attached Thumbnails
Phoenix Real Estate Market Update-11-14-2011-1-40-11  

Last edited by Captain Bill; 11-14-2011 at 01:54 PM..
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Old 11-14-2011, 02:08 PM
 
Location: Arizona
2,489 posts, read 378,660 times
Reputation: 1146
time will tell where things are really headed price wise.

Home Prices in U.S. May Drop Additional 8%, Pimco
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Old 11-14-2011, 02:46 PM
 
712 posts, read 383,365 times
Reputation: 615
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
Since I do know that many C-D readers actually read and understand what I post, and appreciate it, I'll keep providing information. I also know there are many like yourself who may not appreciate the data, or take the time to understand what it's saying; and may feel that I'm cherry picking. And that is ok with me; I've grown accustomed to that.

Since we're on the subject of cherry picking, below is a current chart courtesy of the Cromford Report showing an increase in price per square foot for the Phoenix Metro area, all types residence. It's from Sept 12, through Nov 13.

Awesome, Captain! Keep them coming & thanks.
PL
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Old 11-14-2011, 02:56 PM
 
2,931 posts, read 1,751,779 times
Reputation: 4265
What needs to be looked at is the 12 month trends for the Valley Of The Sun. Prices changes over the past 12 months are shown here by area of the valley through August. A one month change is not really the trend.

Metro Phoenix Arizona Home Values - Data Center - azcentral.com

Phoenix Home Prices and Heat Map - Trulia.com

An interesting map is this interactive map for August showing the day by day changes in foreclosures and how they spread throughout the valley.

31 Days of Foreclosures

We have to also consider that in October the foreclosures increased about 15% in the Valley Of The Sun.

The following chart is a 5 year chart for sales price trends through Sept 1, 2011.

Here is the report from the Realtor's multiple listing service, which has all the figures for the valley.

http://tinyurl.com/8xf2tvb (broken link)

Some comments from their report.

Sales dropped for the second month in a row by 4.2% in October to 7,563. This figure is 11.56% below the previous 11 month average of 8,552 sales per month. Sales have been trending downward since June.

NEW INVENTORY---New listings added to the market rose by 1.6% to 9,654.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI)--The market wide months supply of inventory inched up slightly for the second month in a row
to 3.61 from September’s 3.41. This metric, which trended steeply downward between January and June, has been inching upward since July.

SALES PRICES---Sales prices did not follow the upward motion seen in the September. Instead they remained singularly lackluster, with the median falling 2.5% to $112,000 and the average falling 1.1% to $153,400. Half of the gains seen in September sales prices were lost in the October figures, continuing the flat lined trend line of 2011. It appears that the Valley’s pricing recovery is stalling for time, unfortunately.


FORECLOSUSRES--The steep rate of decline experienced from February to July eased significantly from August through October. STAT’s earlier prediction that the foreclosures pending would cross the 10,000 mark before year’s end now appears unlikely. Unless the current trend line is significantly altered, crossing the 10,000 barrier may not even be accomplished in 2012. (23,555 current well above 10,000 mark)

This is unwelcome news because the elimination of foreclosures, which are fueled by foreclosures pending, is key to pricing recovery.

DISTRESSED SALES---Distressed sales, defined as the combined total of foreclosures and short sales, continue to dominate the Valley’s real estate horizon. Of the 7,563 total sales in October, 4900 (64.8%) were distressed sales.

Phoenix metro area lost over 220,000 jobs since 2007 according the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It added 31,300 jobs between August 2010 and August 2011 which amounts to an annual growth rate of 1.88%, ranking Phoenix as 18th in the nation among 100 major
metropolitan areas.

REALTORS REPORT ENDED----Job gains now, while making up lost ground, simply have a long way to go. Employment and recovery are moving in the right direction but at an impossibly slow pace. Like the proverbial child who pesters, “Are we there yet?” our market responds, “Not yet.”
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Old 11-14-2011, 03:30 PM
 
712 posts, read 383,365 times
Reputation: 615
Let's not forget Warren Buffet completely. I always keep an eye on his stock picks and this spring he issued his opinion on the housing market in the US. He expected a pick up in the price trend within a year, thus by spring 2012 at the latest. Our local data seems to confirm this. He may be talking his book (he holds many RE - related companies), but he also knows a lot about the housing market from his own businesses. He made a big bet in 2009 on the stock market by selling lots of S&P500 puts. Now we know he can bank the money on the premiums and those who bought the puts can say good-bye to theirs. IMO it rarely pays to bet against him. Nice quote here btw:"But a house can be a nightmare if the buyer's eyes are bigger than his wallet and if a lender—often protected by a government guarantee—facilitates his fantasy,” warned Buffett. “Our country’s social goal should not be to put families into the house of their dreams, but rather to put them into a house they can afford."

» Warren Buffett Predicts Housing Market Recovery
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Old 11-14-2011, 03:32 PM
 
1,289 posts, read 1,511,563 times
Reputation: 725
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtrader View Post
DISTRESSED SALES---Distressed sales, defined as the combined total of foreclosures and short sales, continue to dominate the Valley’s real estate horizon. Of the 7,563 total sales in October, 4900 (64.8%) were distressed sales.
That is amazing ... nearly 2 out of 3! There really wasn't much in that report to be encouraged about.
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